K C Land
Biographic Data
| ID | 11570 |
|---|---|
| NAME | K C Land |
| GIVEN NAMES | K C |
| FAMILY NAME | Land |
| SIGNATURE | LAND K C |
| AFFILIATIONS | Duke University |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-9551-7314 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 178 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 3080 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 177 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1968 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2025 |
| H-INDEX | 28 |
Optimized Random-Combinations of Total Fertility Rates and Life Expectancies at Birth for Probabilistic Population Projections
Intergenerational income mobility table revisited
There is a long history of studying intergenerational mobility using mobility tables or transition matrices. This approach has two potential limitations: each generation is typically divided into several equally sized income groups based on percentile ranking to create ad-hoc social classes or into predetermined broad occupational groups, and inter- and intragenerational changes in social class are not jointly analyzed. To address these limitatio…
The crime decline in cross-national context
During the 1990s, the United States and other wealthy democracies experienced a decline in homicide rates. However, not all nations shared this trend. Despite disparate homicide patterns, researchers usually examine the average effect of correlates on homicide, potentially obscuring the impact of heterogeneity within large samples. The current study addresses this implicit homogeneity assumption by identifying three distinct latent trajectory gro…
Optimizing Count Responses in Surveys
Count responses with grouping and right censoring have long been used in surveys to study a variety of behaviors, status, and attitudes. Yet grouping or right-censoring decisions of count responses still rely on arbitrary choices made by researchers. We develop a new method for evaluating grouping and right-censoring decisions of count responses from a (semisupervised) machine-learning perspective. This article uses Poisson multinomial mixture mo…
Fifty Years After the Social Indicators Movement
The Importance of the Baby Boom Cohort and the Great Recession in Understanding Age, Period, and Cohort Patterns in Happiness
Twenge, Sherman, and Lyubomirsky (TSL) claim that long-term cultural changes have increased young adults’ happiness while reducing mature adults’ happiness. To establish their conclusion, TSL use trend analyses, as well as more sophisticated mixed-effects models, but their analyses are problematic. In particular, TSL’s trend analyses ignore a crucial cohort effect: well-known lower happiness among baby boomers. Furthermore, their data aggregation…
Social Indicators
This entry commences with definitions of objective, subjective, and composite social indicators. It then reviews the historical development of the social indicators movement across the decades from the 1960s to the present. Next, three types of social indicators (policy/welfare/criterion indicators, subjective well‐being indicators, and descriptive indicators) are defined and illustrated. A final section describes two functions of social indicato…
Automating Recidivism Risk Assessment
Capabilities, Subjective Wellbeing and Public Policy
Replies to Our Commentators
APC Accounting/Multiple Classification Model, Part I
This chapter focuses on an innovative approach to the model identification and estimation problem within the linear/generalized linear models framework for age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. Incorporating recent methodological developments on estimable functions in the context of the APC accounting model, a new method of estimation termed the Intrinsic Estimator (IE) is proposed and compared to the conventional coefficient constraints approach, th…
Mixed Effects Models
This chapter focuses on the exposition of the basic cross-classified random effects modeling specifications of Hierarchical age-period-cohert (HAPC) models through algebraic analysis and empirical analyses of examples of the research design (repeated cross-sectional sample surveys), including the General Social Survey and National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey to show how HAPC models for such designs avoid the identification problem and…
Formalities of the Age-Period-Cohort Analysis Conundrum and a Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMM) Framework
This chapter reviews the methods of descriptive and statistical analysis frequently used in age-period-cohort (APC) studies. It discusses their utilities and limitations, and lays out the formal algebra of the APC identification problem and reviews conventional approaches to model identification. The many pitfalls in empirical APC analysis and lack of major breakthroughs in methodology led to the verdict that statistical APC models cannot be reli…
APC Analysis of Data from Three Common Research Designs
This chapter focuses on three research designs that allow analysts to distinguish age, period, and cohort effects and thus are more suitable for age-period-cohort (APC) analysis than cross-sectional or single-cohort panel designs. It identifies two to three prototypical datasets that characterize the application of APC analysis in each of three designs. In each case, the chapter commences with statements of substantive problems that arise from th…
APC Accounting/Multiple Classification Model, Part II
This chapter continues the discussion of the conventional age-period-cohort (APC) accounting model but focuses on empirical applications. It first describes a three-step procedure that combines descriptive and statistical APC analysis using the Intrinsic Estimator through studies of recent cancer incidence and mortality trends by sex and race in the United States. There is evidence of nonparallelism among age patterns by time period in rates of b…
Mixed Effects Models
This chapter develops a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) approach to the analysis of prospective panel data using accelerated longitudinal cohort designs. It includes empirical applications that continue to reveal patterns and mechanisms underlying social stratification of aging and health. The chapter shows how to use GLMMs to disentangle the effects of aging and birth cohort in longitudinal panel study designs. It examines different questi…
Mixed Effects Models
This chapter illustrates the applications of the family of hierarchical age-period-cohort (HAPC) models for more advanced analysis of repeated cross-sectional data designs in the forms of both sample surveys and aggregate rates. In addition to a new example using repeated cross-sectional surveys from the General Social Survey on happiness, the chapter continues to analyze the cancer mortality rate data to relate their temporal trends to potential…
Directions for Future Research and Conclusion
This chapter provides additional models and data designs that provide promising avenues for future development and substantive research with regard to age-period-cohort (APC) models. A smoothing cohort model utilizes the fact that the overlap of adjacent cohorts requires that each cohort effect be estimated with contributions from near neighbors. This model replaces the fixed cohort effects in the APC accounting model with smoothed cohort effects…
Why Cohort Analysis!
The usefulness of cohort analysis demonstrated by the early studies and the convenience of using simple indicators that are widely available in many kinds of data facilitated the quick spread of cohort analysis in demography and epidemiology. The applicability of Age-period-cohort (APC) analysis relies on the substantive importance of cohort influences. APC analysis is, in this sense, synonymous with cohort analysis. Studies of aging use cohort a…
Age-Period-Cohort Analysis
This book explores the ways in which statistical models, methods, and research designs can be used to open new possibilities for APC analysis. Within a single, consistent HAPC-GLMM statistical modeling framework, the authors synthesize APC models and methods for three research designs: age-by-time period tables of population rates or proportions, repeated cross-section sample surveys, and accelerated longitudinal panel studies. They show how the …
Playing With the Rules and Making Misleading Statements
Version of Record
Age-Specific Variation in Adult Mortality Rates in Developed Countries
Social Changes
Forecasting
Violent Physical Bullying Victimization at School
Structural Covariates of Homicide Rates
This study demonstrate that the empirical literature on the structural convariates of homicide rates contains inconsistent findings across different time periods and different geographical units. This apparent variance of findings may be due to statistical or methodological artifacts of particular studies, such as different time periods covered, units of analysis, samples, model specification, and problems of statistical analysis and inference. A…
Age, Criminal Careers, and Population Heterogeneity
This article addresses three issues that are central to the criminal career debate. First, is the life course of individual offending patterns marked by distinctive periods of quiescence? Second, at the level of the individual, do offending rates vary systematically with age? In particular, is the age‐crime curve single peaked or flat? Third, are chronic offenders different from less active offenders? Do offenders themselves differ in systematic …
Age-Period-Cohort Analysis
This book explores the ways in which statistical models, methods, and research designs can be used to open new possibilities for APC analysis. Within a single, consistent HAPC-GLMM statistical modeling framework, the authors synthesize APC models and methods for three research designs: age-by-time period tables of population rates or proportions, repeated cross-section sample surveys, and accelerated longitudinal panel studies. They show how the …
A Mixed Models Approach to the Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Repeated Cross-Section Surveys, with an Application to Data on Trends in Verbal Test Scores
We develop a mixed (fixed and random effects) models approach to the age-period-cohort (AFC) analysis of micro data sets in the form of a series of the repeated cross-section sample surveys that are increasingly available to sociologists. This approach recognizes the multilevel structure of the individual-level responses. As a substantive illustration, we apply our proposed methodology to data on verbal test scores from 15 cross-sections of the G…
Social Inequality and Predatory Criminal Victimization
This study systematically tests a formal theory of how certain dimensions of social stratification--income, race, and age--relate to risk of predatory criminal victimization. An opportunity theory of criminal victimization is proposed, focusing on the mediating role played by five risk factors: exposure, guardianship, proximity to potential offenders, attractiveness of potential targets, and definitional properties of specific crimes themselves. …
Unemployment and Crime Rates in the Post-World War II United States
Using annual time-series data for the United States, 1946-1982, two hypotheses are tested: (1) The level of the unemployment rate in any given year will have a negative partial contemporaneous effect on detrendedfluctuations (increases or decreases) in seven Index Crime rates (homicide, rape, aggravated assault, robbery, burglary, larceny-theft, and motor vehicle theft) in that year. (2) Unemployment-rate fluctuationsfrom one year to the next wil…
Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Repeated Cross-Section Surveys
Yang and Land (2006) and Yang (forthcoming-b) developed a mixed (fixed and random) effects model for the age-period-cohort (APC) analysis of micro data sets in the form of a series of repeated cross-section sample surveys that are increasingly available to demographers. The authors compare the fixedversus random-effects model specifications for APC analysis. They use data on verbal test scores from 15 cross sections of the General Social Survey (…
Macro‐micro Integration in the Study of Victimization
Recent contextual analyses of victimization survey data are extended by application of hierarchical logistic model techniques. Using a multi‐stage sample of 5,090 Seattle residents, we estimate models for individuals' risks of violent crime and burglary victimization as a function of both individual crime opportunity factors (routine activity and personal lifestyle) and contextual indicators of neighborhood social disorganization (neighborhood in…
A Methodological Comparison of Age-Period-Cohort Models
Age-period-cohort (APC) accounting models have long been objects of attention in statistical studies of human populations. It is well known that the identification problem created by the linear dependency of age, period, and cohort (Period = Age + Cohort or P = A + C) presents a major methodological challenge to APC analysis, a problem that has been widely addressed in demography, epidemiology, and statistics. This paper compares parameter estima…
Age Structure and Crime
This paper asks whether decreases in the proportion of the U.S. population in high crime-prone ages in recent years have produced decreases in crime rates which correspond approximately, but in an inverse direction, to the increases observed when the baby boomers reached the high crime-prone ages in the 1960s and 1970s. We examine age distributions of arrests for murder and motor vehicle theft and then specify and estimate structural-equation mod…
Perceived Risk versus Fear of Crime
The conceptualization and measurement of fear of crime have received considerable attention in the research literature. Nevertheless, most sample surveys use indicators that only tap a general, cognitive assessment of safety — assumed to represent fear of violence. This article examines whether there are conceptually and empirically distinct dimensions of fear of crime by comparing the micro- and macrolevel antecedents of such a general, cognitiv…
The Intrinsic Estimator for Age-Period-Cohort Analysis
A new approach to the statistical estimation of age‐period‐cohort (APC) accounting models, called the intrinsic estimator (IE), recently has been developed. This article (1) further describes the IE algebraically, geometrically, and verbally, (2) reviews properties of the IE as a statistical estimator, (3) provides model validation evidence for the IE both from an empirical example and from a simulation exercise, (4) relates the coefficients of t…
Religious Pluralism and Church Membership
Recent empirical research on the effect of religious pluralism on church membership in the United States has produced contradictoryfindings. One study reported that religious pluralism had a positive effect on the prevalence of church membership, whereas another study reported a negative effect. Using county-level census datafor 1910, 1920, and 1930, wefind that religious diversity generally retards church membership. We also extend research on t…
Child and Youth Well-Being in the United States, 1975–1998
Property Crime Rates in the United States
This paper presents several macrodynamic social indicator models of post-World War II trends in robbery, burglary, and automobile theft rates for the United States. A theory of the ways in wich changes in criminal opportunity affect these Index Crime property crime rates is deveoped. Definitions and postulates are presented from which we derive a main theorem which states that, other things being equal, a decrease in the density of the population…
A Comparison of Poisson, Negative Binomial, and Semiparametric Mixed Poisson Regression Models
Specifications and moment properties of the univariate Poisson and negative binomial distributions are briefly reviewed and illustrated. Properties and limitations of the corresponding poisson and negative binomial (gamma mixtures of Poissons) regression models are described. It is shown how a misspecification of the mixing distribution of a mixed Poisson model to accommodate hidden heterogeneity ascribable to unobserved variables-although not af…
How Many Latent Classes of Delinquent/ Criminal Careers? Results from Mixed Poisson Regression Analyses
This article reviews questions about different categories of criminal careers, summarizes Poisson latent class regression models, describes procedures for evaluating the optimal number of latent classes, and applies this methodology to data from male cohorts taken from the cities of London, Philadelphia, and Racine. Four latent classes of offending careers is an appropriate number for the London cohort, but five classes can be justified for the P…
Principles of Path Analysis
Sociologists have used for some time the methods of classical statistics in the interpretation of many varieties of sociological data. However, due to the lack of a procedure for incorporating statistical results into social theory, parameter estimates have seldom had a direct bearing on the evaluation and reformulation of sociological theory. This state of affairs has stimulated recent discussions of linear causal models as a procedure for bridg…
On the Large-Sample Estimation of Regression Models with Spatial- Or Network-Effects Terms
In this paper we apply the two-stage leastsquares (2SLS) estimation technique to produce regression estimators for linear models that incorporate spatialor network-effects terms. Such models are often necessary to adequately represent social processes in data that have been aggregated for politically or administratively defined areas such as census tracts, cities, counties, or states. They are also necessary to represent data from individuals or …
A General Framework for Building Dynamic Macro Social Indicator Models
It is generally agreed that social indicators are measures of social conditions. Accordinlgy, recent interest in measuring social conditions and in building models of how various social forces determine changes in social conditions was predated by work of William F. Ogburn and his collaborators over 50 years ago. In this paper, we argue for a revival of analyses of social change based upon time series of indices of social conditions. To provide a…
Should age-period-cohort studies return to the methodologies of the 1970s
Resolving inconsistencies in trends in old-age disability
In September 2002, a technical working group met to resolve previously published inconsistencies across national surveys in trends in activity limitations among the older population. The 12-person panel prepared estimates from five national data sets and investigated methodological sources of the inconsistencies among the population aged 70 and older from the early 1980s to 2001. Although the evidence was mixed for the 1980s and it is difficult t…
Population-Based Survey Experiments
Quality of Life Indexes for National Policy
Measuring trends in child well-being
Migration and Metropolitan Growth
Principles of Path Analysis
Sociologists have used for some time the methods of classical statistics in the interpretation of many varieties of sociological data. However, due to the lack of a procedure for incorporating statistical results into social theory, parameter estimates have seldom had a direct bearing on the evaluation and reformulation of sociological theory. This state of affairs has stimulated recent discussions of linear causal models as a procedure for bridg…
Duration of residence and prospective migration
A basic assumption of the Cornell Mobility Model insofar as it is relevant to inter-community migration is that an individual’s propensity to move is a function of, among other things, his length of residence in the community. Parameters of the functional relationship of migration probabilities to duration status are estimated from migration histories for a sample of residents in Monterrey, Mexico, and compared with estimates reported by P. A. Mo…
Mathematical Formalization of Durkheim's Theory of Division of Labor
This chapter is a revised form of a paper read at the Annual Meetings of the American Sociological Association, August, 1968. It is based on a chapter in Kenneth C. Land, Explorations in Mathematical Sociology, unpublished Ph.D. dissertation, The University of Texas at Austin, 1969. The encouragement and assistance of Harley L. Browning and the staff of the Population Research Center of The University of Texas at Austin is gratefully acknowledged…
On the Estimation of Path Coefficients for Unmeasured Variables from Correlations among Observed Variables
Path Models of Functional Theories of Social Stratification as Representations of Cultural Beliefs on Stratification
(1970). Path Models of Functional Theories of Social Stratification as Representations of Cultural Beliefs on Stratification. The Sociological Quarterly: Vol. 11, No. 4, pp. 474-484
Formal Theory
Land's Reply to Hauser
Journal Article Land's Reply to Hauser Get access Kenneth C. Land Kenneth C. Land Russell Sage Foundation Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Social Forces, Volume 50, Issue 1, September 1971, Page 116, https://doi.org/10.1093/sf/50.1.116 Published: 01 September 1971
Some exhaustible Poisson process models of divorce by marriage cohort
A one‐parameter exhaustible Poisson process model is formulated to represent the cumulative divorce trajectory of marriage cohorts. On the basis of recently published data of nine‐year cumulative records of all one‐year United States marriage cohorts, 1949–1958, it is found that the one‐parameter model does not provide an empirically adequate representation of cohort divorce trajectories. Therefore, two modifications of the basic model are explor…
Significant Others, the Self-Reflexive Act and the Attitude Formation Process
The Woelfel-Haller (1971) model of the influence of significant others on the formation of educational and occupational aspirations is identified and its parameters are correctly estimated on the basis of their reported data on 100 Wisconsin high school seniors. Because of certain inadequacies revealed by the parameter estimates, the model is respecified by postulating underlying status expectations and ambition factors to account for the correla…
Comment définir les indicateurs sociaux
Land Kenneth C. Comment définir les indicateurs sociaux. In: Revue française de sociologie, 1971, 12-4. pp. 569-578
Social reporting for the 1970's
The Role of Quality of Employment Indicators in General Social Reporting Systems
The Use of Models in the Social Sciences
Social Indicator Models
Social Information for the 1970s
Measurement in the Social Sciences
A General Framework for Building Dynamic Macro Social Indicator Models
It is generally agreed that social indicators are measures of social conditions. Accordinlgy, recent interest in measuring social conditions and in building models of how various social forces determine changes in social conditions was predated by work of William F. Ogburn and his collaborators over 50 years ago. In this paper, we argue for a revival of analyses of social change based upon time series of indices of social conditions. To provide a…
A Social Indicator Model of Changes in the Occupational Structure of the United States
This paper presents a ten-equation dynamic structural equation model that shows how aggregate changes in the occupational structure of the United States affect each other and are affected by economic, technological and institutional changes. The model postulates a recursive flow of causation from changes in sectorial (agricultural, manufacturing, services) demand and productivity to changes in the distribution of occupations by sector, bureaucrat…
A dynamic macro social indicator model of changes in marriage, family, and population in the United States
Indicators and models of changes in the American occupational system, 1947?73
The Analysis of Survey Data, Volume 1
Developing Methods for Measuring Perceived Well-Being
Sensitivity Analysis of Arbitrarily Identified Simultaneous-Equation Models
Current sociological theory often leads to underidentified simultaneous-equation models, some of which are 'identified' by arbitrary specification. This paper applies the term sensitivity analysis to methods for exploring how numerical parameter estimates depend upon the identifying assumptions in such models. Three ad hoc sensitivity analysis methods are identified that have been used in the literature: (1) estimation under alternative specifica…
Developing social indicators research on the military in American society
Sociology (108 works) · Psychology (71 works) · Computer Science (64 works) · Mathematics (64 works) · Demography (60 works) · Econometrics (59 works) · Medicine (58 works) · Economics (57 works) · Statistics (56 works) · Population (50 works)