Leonid Grinin
Biographic Data
| ID | 194048 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Leonid Grinin |
| GIVEN NAMES | Leonid |
| FAMILY NAME | Grinin |
| SIGNATURE | GRININ L |
| AFFILIATIONS | National Research University Higher School of Economics |
| ORCID | 0000-0003-0278-2619 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 53 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 23 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 52 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 1 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2003 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2026 |
| H-INDEX | 2 |
Donald Trump and Radical Reconfiguration of the World-System in the Context of the World Order Transformation
The article analyzes the direction, mechanisms, and causes through which President Trump’s actions contribute to the destruction of the foundations of U.S. influence in the world and to the transformation of the world order. For almost two decades we have been observing such an important phenomenon as the reconfiguration of the World-System, which means that the World-System is in a systemic crisis and in a state of deep transformation which is r…
The Fifth Generation of Revolution Studies. A Systematic Review
In the 21st century, a fifth generation of revolution studies has emerged, characterized by several key features. It is distinguished by macro and systemic approaches to analyzing revolutionary processes, the study of specific trends (such as urban civic revolutions) and contemporary factors, including the role of information technologies. Researchers of this generation pay special attention to revolutionary waves and their diffusion, clearly dif…
Global Aging and the Medicine of the Future
Aging is one of the most powerful processes of the 21st century which is accelerating, which is influencing and will influence much more during many forthcoming decades all aspects of life. The percentage of elderly in developed countries will surpass a share of young people within decades. So we will live in gray society where about one third or more population will be with their age-associated diseases, geriatric syndromes, weaknesses, and spec…
The Fifth Generation of Revolution Studies. Part II
The article is the first part of our systematic review of substantive findings of fifth-generation revolution studies, building on the examination of the emergence and characteristics of this generation contained in the first article in the series. Our systematic review is divided into two parts. This first part specifically considers the following areas of research explored by fifth-generation scholars: First, we examine the factors and causes o…
The Fifth Generation of Revolution Studies. Part III
This article is the final part of our systematic review of the substantive findings of fifth-generation revolution studies, building on the examination of the emergence and characteristics of this generation contained in the first article in the series. Our systematic review is divided into two parts. In this second and final part, the following areas of research explored by fifth-generation scholars will be specifically considered: (1) impact of…
Deepening of the World-System Crisis
Since the beginning of the Great Recession in 2008 the world-system has become increasingly in a state of crisis, which continues to deepen. Since Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine (SMO) in February 2022, the world-system has entered a new phase of development that combines international, economic and other crises. The geopolitical aspects of the world-system crisis and the consequences of the military conflict are now being actively…
Revolution and Democracy in the Twenty-First Century
In this article, we analyze an inverted U-shaped relationship between the type of regime (on the autocracy-democracy scale) and the risks of revolutionary destabilization. Anocracies tend to be more vulnerable to revolutionary destabilization than full autocracies or full (consolidated) democracies. We also point to a strong positive association between the weakening of autocracies and the risks of revolutionary destabilization that exist among f…
Revolutions of the 21st century and the fifth generation of researchers of revolutionary events
In the early 2000s, after Jack Goldstone’s article on the formation of a fourth generation of revolution researchers, interest in the study of these generations grew. Since 2019, discussions have even begun that a fifth generation of researchers of revolution has come or may come to replace it. At the same time, the points of view on what kind of generation this is, whether it has formed, what tasks it faces, etc., vary considerably. The authors …
Factors of Nonviolent Revolutions’ Onset
One of the most important trends noted by researchers in the revolutionary events of recent decades is the rapid increase in the share of unarmed revolutionary uprisings and, accordingly, a decrease in the share of armed revolutionary insurgencies. The study of this trend is of great importance. This work continues previous research on unarmed revolutionary destabilization. Unlike in past studies, the authors here have significantly expanded the …
On the Stages of the Evolution of Statehood
The state has passed along a great evolutionary path, whose analysis is an important task for political and historical anthropology, as well as for various other social sciences. Unfortunately, there are still no generally accepted approaches either to the definition of the state as such or to the definition of polities that can be designated as early states; and moreover, some anthropologists deny this stage of statehood, confusing it, in my vie…
Will Global Aging Change the Rate of Technological Progress and Form a New Consumption Model
The article discusses how the pace of technological progress and economic model of society will change under the influence of global aging process. It tries to answer the following questions: What could be the driver of an acceleration of technological growth in the forthcoming decades? Is slowdown of technological growth likely to be observed afterwards? What could cause such a slow-down? How could this slowdown affect socioeconomic and sociopol…
Capitalism’s Unclear Futures
The authors of the present article pose and consider in detail the highly relevant issue of whether capitalism has a future or whether it will be replaced by some new system. And if it does have a future, then what future will it be? These questions are nothing new, but in the recent few years, just like a hundred years ago, they have acquired exceptional importance, since not only the Left but also the representatives of the largest financial ca…
Africa—The Continent of the Future. Demographic and Economic Challenges and Opportunities
Africa is the most rapidly growing continent, and its growth (demographic, economic, cultural etc.) will inevitably influence the World System (and the further, the stronger). The growth of African societies will bring at the same time both challenges and opportunities. The authors discuss both of them in detail. They consider Africa as the main intrigue of demographic transformations in the twenty-first century. But they also think that this con…
The Evolution of Artificial Intelligence
The article is devoted to the history of the development of ICT and AI, their current and expected future achievements, and the problems (which have already arisen but will become even more acute in the future) associated with the development of these technologies and their widespread application in society. It shows the close connection between the development of AI and cognitive science, the penetration of ICT and AI into various spheres, parti…
The Evolution of Artificial Intelligence
The article is devoted to the history of the development of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) and Artificial Intelligence (AI), their current and probable future achievements, and the problems (which have already arisen, but will become even more acute in the future) associated with the development of these technologies and their active introduction in society. The close connection between the development of AI and cognitive scienc…
The Fifth Generation of Revolution Studies. Part I
There are grounds for claiming that a new (‘fifth’) generation of revolution studies has emerged in the 21st century. It can be noted that the characteristics of this generation are as follows: a tendency toward a macro-level outlook, encompassing both historical and geographical dimensions, coupled with a propensity toward a systemic approach; study of distinct types of revolutionary processes, such as Mark Beissinger’s ‘urban civic revolutions’…
Discussion Among the Fifth-Generation Circle. A rejoinder to Mark Beissinger, Daniel Ritter, Valentine Moghadam, Egor Fain, and Alisa Shishkina
Is the Fifth Generation of Revolution Studies Still Coming
Introduction-Why Have We Chosen the Generational Aspect?Recently, several significant studies have been published on revolutions, various aspects of the theory of revolution, and revolutions of recent times-the 21st century.Some of these studies will be discussed in this review essay.These studies deserve the most careful reading and analysis, consideration of their strengths and weaknesses in relation to the aspect of research chosen by the auth…
The Future of Revolutions in the 21st Century and the World System Reconfiguration
At present the World System is undergoing considerable transformations. We expect that in connection with the World System reconfiguration the number of revolutions as well as their role as a means of the world-system transformation may increase noticeably. We analyze the future of revolutions in a number of aspects, namely: (1) the evaluation of their number in comparison with the previous period; (2) their role as a tool defining the future pro…
Global Aging and our Futures
We analyze process of global population aging, which will have a significant impact on all areas of public life in the 21st century. Global aging is likely to create an acute demand for labor-saving technologies, as well as give a powerful impulse in the field of medicine. As a result of the completion of Cybernetic Revolution and achievement by global aging of an advanced phase, a new society will be formed–cybernetic society. It is likely to be…
Education and Revolutionary Destabilization Risks
There is a significant number of theoretical studies linking education and socio-political destabilization. At the same time, there is an almost complete absence of global quantitative cross-national studies analyzing the impact of education on the risks of revolutionary uprisings. This research is aimed to fill the existing gap. The existing literature shows that education contributes to the accumulation of human capital, develops a culture of d…
Social Evolution
The present article is devoted to social evolution both as a part of macroevolution and as a specific process that have led humanity to outstanding successes and heights (while creating in the meantime serious crises and major problems). The article examines important theoretical aspects of social evolution within the framework of a more general approach, which we call evolutionary studies. The authors give a definition of social evolution, exami…
Demographic Transformations in the Light of Technological Development
The analysis of the demographic component and demographic dimension of historical process has not been sufficiently studied in the social sciences. The demographic development of humankind is even more rarely studied in its close connection with technological development. However, this is an extremely important aspect that can not only explain essential dimensions of the development, but also provide a basis for explaining current processes and f…
Historical Materialism
The article examines academic and intellectual merits of the central part of Marxism -historical materialism.The authors argue that historical materialism has many valuable findings and conclusions and analyze some of them, showing that they together with its methodology can be helpful for social scientist and for a historian theorizing and aspiring for wide analogues.There are given new explanations to this phenomenon as the restrictions are rev…
Demographic Transformations in the Historical Process in the Light of Technological Development
The analysis of the demographic component and of the demographic dimension of historical process has unfortunately not been sufficiently studied in the social sciences. The demographic development of humankind is even more rarely studied in its close connection with technological development. However, this is an extremely important aspect that can not only explain essential dimensions of the development, but also provide a basis for explaining cu…
Socio-economic Development and Anti-government Protests in Light of a New Quantitative Analysis of Global Databases
Previous studies have revealed a somewhat paradoxical strong positive correlation between per capita GDP and the intensity of anti-government demonstrations observed for the vast majority of countries (indeed, it turns out that the better people live, the more likely they are to join anti-government protests). The goal of this article is to identify possible causes of this unusual correlation. Our tests show that the processes of democratization …
Mathematical Model of Interaction between Civilization Center and Tribal Periphery
Is the Fifth Generation of Revolution Studies Still Coming
Introduction-Why Have We Chosen the Generational Aspect?Recently, several significant studies have been published on revolutions, various aspects of the theory of revolution, and revolutions of recent times-the 21st century.Some of these studies will be discussed in this review essay.These studies deserve the most careful reading and analysis, consideration of their strengths and weaknesses in relation to the aspect of research chosen by the auth…
Революционные события XXI века
Авторы изучают важные аспекты революционного процесса XXI века. Рассматриваются причины, по которым революционный процесс начала XXI столетия проходит довольно бурно, а также прогнозы, обещающие, что и в будущем он будет весьма активным; анализируются революционные тренды, в том числе особо тревожный – рост числа радикальных исламистских революционных выступлений. Все сказанное иллюстрируется статистическим анализом различного типа революций. Нас…
Mathematical Model of Interaction between Civilization Center and Tribal Periphery
This article offers a mathematical model describing the influence of one of the major factors of the World System's macrodynamics throughout most of its history (since the 'urban revolution') -the interaction between civilizations and their tribal peripheries. The proposed mathematical model is intended to describe the possible influence of the interaction between the World System civilizational core and its tribal periphery on the formation of t…
Revolutions
The year 2017 marked not only the hundredth anniversary of the Revolution of 1917, but also the 500 th anniversary of the beginning of the Reformation in Germany. It was just the Reformation that gave start to modern revolutions in Europe and the world. In the first part of the article we analyze the course of transformation of revolutions within historical process, in particular, how their world-historical role, the social bases, revolutionary i…
Revolution and Democracy in the Twenty-First Century
In this article, we analyze an inverted U-shaped relationship between the type of regime (on the autocracy-democracy scale) and the risks of revolutionary destabilization. Anocracies tend to be more vulnerable to revolutionary destabilization than full autocracies or full (consolidated) democracies. We also point to a strong positive association between the weakening of autocracies and the risks of revolutionary destabilization that exist among f…
The Fifth Generation of Revolution Studies. Part I
There are grounds for claiming that a new (‘fifth’) generation of revolution studies has emerged in the 21st century. It can be noted that the characteristics of this generation are as follows: a tendency toward a macro-level outlook, encompassing both historical and geographical dimensions, coupled with a propensity toward a systemic approach; study of distinct types of revolutionary processes, such as Mark Beissinger’s ‘urban civic revolutions’…
Historical Materialism
The article examines academic and intellectual merits of the central part of Marxism -historical materialism.The authors argue that historical materialism has many valuable findings and conclusions and analyze some of them, showing that they together with its methodology can be helpful for social scientist and for a historian theorizing and aspiring for wide analogues.There are given new explanations to this phenomenon as the restrictions are rev…
Волны революций XXI столетия
Статья предлагает предварительное описание трех революционных волн XXI в., их ключевых характеристик и причин. Одна из целей данной статьи – развить аналитические инструменты, в частности углубить понимание самого понятия революции и революционных событий, а также типологию революционных событий. В целом настоящая статья предлагает теоретический и отчасти количественный анализ революционного процесса ХХI в. Предложен новый подход к выделению волн…
Social Evolution as an Integral Part of Universal Evolution
Economic Development, Sociopolitical Destabilization and Inequality
In the 1960s Mancur Olson and Samuel Huntington suggested that the positive correlation between per capita income and the level of sociopolitical destabilization that they detected for low and middle income countries might be partly accounted for by the growth of the inequality associated with the economic and technological development in these countries. The empirical tests we perform generally support this hypothesis, but they also identify cer…
Subjective Wellbeing and Revolutionary Destabilization. A Quantitative Analysis
The subjective well-being of the population - or the 'level of happiness' - is a popular topic for scientific research and socio-political discussions both domestically and internationally. In this regard, a direction of research is gaining traction; its proponents consider the level of happiness to be a predictor of the current socio-political stability. An analysis of the literature revealed that, despite the abundance of works on the topic of …
Transformation of Sovereignty and Globalization
The state in the past and in the future
There are many uncertainties concerning the state despite the seemingly high degree of knowledge about this institution. Scientists are at variance on how and when it emerged, on the criteria that distinguish it from prestate and nonstate formations, and on the evolutionary types of states. The present-day status of the state is also unclear. Some scholars are of the opinion that it is strengthening, while others think that globalization weakens …
State and Socio-Political Crises in the Process of Modernization
The issue of the state and statehood is a principal one in social studies, whatever its aspect we consider. In this respect it is worth pointing out the growing interest to the problems of nation-building and state-building. So the state-building is regarded as a key objective, particularly in ‘fragile states’. At the same time we should agree with Peter Turchin, that ‘nation-builders today do not have such a theoretical framework’, while concept…
On Similarities between Biological and Social Evolutionary Mechanisms
In the first part of this article we survey general similarities and differences between biological and social macroevolution. In the second (and main) part, we consider a concrete mathematical model capable of describing important features of both biological and social macroevolution. In mathematical models of historical macrodynamics, a hyperbolic pattern of world population growth arises from non-linear, second-order positive feedback between …
Great Divergence and Great Convergence
Economic Development, Sociopolitical Destabilization and Inequality
In the 1960s Mancur Olson and Samuel Huntington suggested that the positive correlation between per capita income and the level of sociopolitical destabilization that they detected for low and middle income countries might be partly accounted for by the growth of the inequality associated with the economic and technological development in these countries. The empirical tests we perform generally support this hypothesis, but they also identify cer…
Historical Materialism within Western Marxism
lt;p>Представлен очерк истории западных исследований в школе исторического мате- \nриализма, начиная с конца XIX в. на общем фоне судьбы западного марксизма и его \nкризиса после падения социализма. Показаны волны снижения и повышения инте- \nреса западных марксист ов к проблемам истмата. Исследуются научные и интеллекту- \nальные достоинства исторического материализма. Автор аргументирует, что в мето- \nдологии истмата оказалось много ценных нах…
Revolutions
The year 2017 marked not only the hundredth anniversary of the Revolution of 1917, but also the 500 th anniversary of the beginning of the Reformation in Germany. It was just the Reformation that gave start to modern revolutions in Europe and the world. In the first part of the article we analyze the course of transformation of revolutions within historical process, in particular, how their world-historical role, the social bases, revolutionary i…
Islamism, Arab Spring, and the Future of Democracy
Revolutions and Historical Process
Although there occurred numerous revolutions in the ancient world and in the Middle Ages, their historical role was relatively small. Starting from the Modern period, the role of revolutions as historical engines increased dramatically, which was connected with the started industrial era and emerging technologies, with development of capitalist relations, to which the revolutions opened the way in the struggle against absolutism and obsolete soci…
Contemporary Islamism
The article describes Islamism as a multifaceted, multidimensional and constantly changing \nphenomenon which manifests itself at different levels. Islamism has many levels and manifestations. It is impossible to comprehend modern Muslim (and even more so Arab) societies without taking into account the \ninfluence of Islam as ideology, cultural environment, modality and way of life at the same time. It would be a \nmistake to represent Islamism a…
A quantitative analysis of worldwide long-term technology growth
Social Evolution as an Integral Part of Universal Evolution
Socio-economic Development and Anti-government Protests in Light of a New Quantitative Analysis of Global Databases
Previous studies have revealed a somewhat paradoxical strong positive correlation between per capita GDP and the intensity of anti-government demonstrations observed for the vast majority of countries (indeed, it turns out that the better people live, the more likely they are to join anti-government protests). The goal of this article is to identify possible causes of this unusual correlation. Our tests show that the processes of democratization …
Global Trends and Forecasts of the 21st Century
The COVID-19 pandemic is likely to become one of the turning points in the transformation of the world order, as well as many political, social and other relations in the World System. Undoubtedly, we live in a fast-changing world, when it is imperative to look beyond the horizon of current events in order to understand what tomorrow may bring. In the present article some forecasts of technological, political, as well as social and economic devel…
Seven Weaknesses of the U.S., Donald Trump, and the Future of American Hegemony
Over a long period, the main intrigue within the current global contradiction has been the resistance of most of the world community to the growing egoism of the USA, which is not willing to consider other countries’ interests. This has become even more evident since Donald Trump's rise to power, as the frontline of the contradictions has expanded since the USA continues to ignore the others' interests. Trump's 2016 campaign slogan, “Make America…
Mathematical Model of Interaction between Civilization Center and Tribal Periphery
This article offers a mathematical model describing the influence of one of the major factors of the World System's macrodynamics throughout most of its history (since the 'urban revolution') -the interaction between civilizations and their tribal peripheries. The proposed mathematical model is intended to describe the possible influence of the interaction between the World System civilizational core and its tribal periphery on the formation of t…
Urbanization and Revolutions
Th Century revolutions
The 20th century revolutionary process had a big impact on the World System and significantly changed its entire configuration. However, there are essential gaps in terms of theoretical approaches, in particular, in terms of the typology of revolutions. Moreover, there is clearly insufficient research related to qualitative and quantitative analysis and consideration of the revolutions of the 20th century in their entirety. This article aims to f…
Covid-19 pandemic as a trigger for the acceleration of the cybernetic revolution, transition from e-government to e-state, and change in social relations
Handbook of Revolutions in the 21st Century
Political Regime Types and Revolutionary Destabilization Risks in the Twenty-First Century
In this paper, we report the inverted U-shaped relationship between the regime type (on the autocracy — democracy scale) and the risks of revolutionary destabilization. Autocracies tend to be more vulnerable to revolutionary destabilization than full autocracies or consolidated democracies. We would also point at a strong positive correlation between the weakening of autocracies and the risks of revolutionary destabilization that exists among ful…
Mathematical Model of Interaction between Civilization Center and Tribal Periphery
Will capitalism die? Reflections on the Capitalism of the Past, Present and Future
In the article, the authors pose and consider in detail the extremely topical question of whether capitalism has a future or will it be replaced by some new system. And if there is a future, then what kind of future is it? These are not new questions, but in the last few years they have acquired exceptional importance, since not only the left, but also representatives of the largest financial capital have started talking about the end of capitali…
Political science (29 works) · Sociology (25 works) · Economic Development and Digital Transformation (23 works) · Economics (22 works) · Politics (16 works) · Computer Science (15 works) · Law (15 works) · World Systems and Global Transformations (12 works) · Geography (11 works) · Economic and Technological Innovation (9 works)