Tomáš Sobotka
Biographic Data
| ID | 263341 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Tomáš Sobotka |
| GIVEN NAMES | Tomáš |
| FAMILY NAME | Sobotka |
| SIGNATURE | SOBOTKA T |
| AFFILIATIONS | Vienna Institute of Demography |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-6418-7105 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 37 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 1244 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 37 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2003 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2024 |
| H-INDEX | 17 |
Declining appeal of marriage? Trends in marital intentions in South Korea, 1991–2018
Pandemic Roller-Coaster? Birth Trends in Higher-Income Countries During the Covid-19 Pandemic
We use monthly birth data collected by the Human Fertility Database to analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on birth trends until September 2022 in 38 higher-income countries. We also present estimates of the monthly total fertility rate adjusted for seasonality. Our analysis reveals that the pandemic led to distinct swings in births and fertility rates. The initial pandemic shock was associated with a fall in births in most countries, wit…
Projecting the Contribution of Assisted Reproductive Technology to Completed Cohort Fertility
Assisted reproductive technology (ART) is increasingly influencing the fertility trends of high-income countries characterized by a pattern of delayed childbearing. However, research on the impact of ART on completed fertility is limited and the extent to which delayed births are realized later in life through ART is not well understood. This study uses data from Australian fertility clinics and national birth registries to project the contributi…
Un tiers des femmes d‘Asie de l’Est resteront sans enfant
La fécondité a baissé jusqu’à des niveaux extrêmement bas dans la plupart des pays développés d’Asie de l’Est au cours des dernières décennies. Autour d’une femme sur trois n’aura jamais eu d’enfant au cours de sa vie parmi celles nées au milieu des années 1970 au Japon, à Hong Kong et à Singapour. Ce phénomène est lié au retard du mariage et à l’augmentation du célibat à vie, ainsi qu’au fait que davantage de femmes mariées restent sans enfant. …
The Great Recession and Fertility in Europe
This study investigates how the changes in labour market conditions and economic growth were associated with fertility before and during the Great Recession in Europe in 2002–2014. In contrast to previous studies, which largely concentrated at the country level, we use data for 251 European regions in 28 European Union (EU) member states prior to the withdrawal of the United Kingdom in January 2020. We apply three-level growth-curve model which a…
Seeding the gender revolution
In Europe and the United States, women's educational attainment started to increase around the middle of the twentieth century. The expected implication was fertility decline and postponement, whereas in fact the opposite occurred. We analyse trends in the quantum of cohort fertility among the baby boom generations in 15 countries and how these relate to women's education. Over the 1901-45 cohorts, the proportion of parents with exactly two child…
The Emergence of Bimodal Fertility Profiles in Latin America
Cohort fertility decline in low fertility countries
The long-term decline in cohort fertility in highly developed countries has been widely documented. However, no systematic analysis has investigated which parity contributed most to the fertility decline to low and very low levels
Ultra-low fertility in South Korea
The total fertility rate (TFR) in South Korea has fallen below 1.3 since 2001. The role of the rapid shift toward a late-childbearing pattern in driving Korean fertility decline to this ultra-low level has been little explored until now
Post-Transitional Fertility
This study discusses fertility trends and variation in countries that completed the transition from high to around-replacement fertility in the 1950s to 1980s, especially in Europe, East Asia and North America, and summarizes the key relevant findings for those countries with a more recent experience of fertility decline towards replacement level. A central finding is that there is no obvious theoretical or empirical threshold around which period…
Childlessness in Europe
This study combines census, survey, and vital statistics data to reconstruct childlessness trends among women born between 1900 and 1972 in 30 European countries. After discussing the available sources, their strengths and weaknesses, and the selection of data used in this article, I present childlessness trends in individual countries and broader European regions, and analyse between-country variability. Europe has experienced a U-shaped pattern…
Two Is Best? The Persistence of a Two‐Child Family Ideal in Europe
How persistent and universal has the two child family ideal been in Europe during the last three decades? We analyze responses of women of reproductive age from 168 surveys conducted in 37 countries in 1979–2012. A two‐child ideal has become nearly universal among women in all parts of Europe. Countries that used to display higher ideal family size have converged over time toward a two‐child model. Six out of ten women in Europe consider two chil…
Migration and Intergenerational Replacement in Europe
There are long‐standing concerns over low fertility levels in Europe and an increasingly important debate on the extent to which migration can compensate for below‐replacement fertility. To inform this debate, a wide array of indicators have been developed to assess the joint influence of fertility, mortality, and migration on birth replacement and intergenerational replacement. These indicators are based on various models and assumptions and som…
Fertility and Public Policy
Fertility and Public Policy: How to Reverse the Trend of Declining Birth Rates. 2011. Edited by NORIYUKI TAKAYAMA and MARTIN WERDING. Cambridge, MA and London: MIT Press (CES IFO Seminar Series). P
Demographic and medical consequences of the postponement of parenthood
BACKGROUND Across the developed world couples are postponing parenthood. This review assesses the consequences of delayed family formation from a demographic and medical perspective. One main focus is on the quantitative importance of pregnancy postponement. METHODS Medical and social science databases were searched for publications on relevant subjects such as delayed parenthood, female and male age, fertility, infertility, time to pregnancy (TT…
A Demographic Explanation for the Recent Rise in European Fertility
Between 1998 and 2008 European countries experienced the first continent‐wide increase in the period total fertility rate (TFR) since the 1960s. After discussing period and cohort influences on fertility trends, we examine the role of tempo distortions of period fertility and different methods for removing them. We highlight the usefulness of a new indicator: the tempo‐ and parity‐adjusted total fertility rate (TFRp*). This variant of the adjuste…
Postponement and Recuperation in Cohort Fertility
Across developed countries, cohorts of women born after World War II have seen a shift of childbearing towards later ages and a concomitant decline in fertility level. We study this shift using the notions of fertility postponement (fertility decline at younger ages) and subsequent recuperation (a compensatory fertility increase at higher reproductive ages). We apply order-specific data and extend and elaborate on two broad approaches to this pro…
Fertility in Austria, Germany and Switzerland
This article reviews major similarities and differences in period and cohort fertility in Austria, Germany and Switzerland. These three countries share a long history of low fertility and currently belong to countries with the lowest cohort fertility rates globally. The study highlights persistent differences in fertility and family patterns between Eastern and Western Germany, which are often rooted in pre-unification contrasts and can be partly…
Economic Recession and Fertility in the Developed World
This article reviews research on the effects of economic recessions on fertility in the developed world. We study how economic downturns, as measured by various indicators, especially by declining GDP levels, falling consumer confdence, and rising unemployment, were found to affect fertility. We also discuss particular mechanisms through which the recession may have influenced fertility behavior, including the effects of economic uncertainty, fal…
Misleading Policy Messages Derived from the Period TFR
Discussions about fertility in developed countries refer almost exclusively to the period Total Fertility Rate (TFR). We argue that the use of this indicator frequently leads to incorrect interpretations of period fertility levels and trends, resulting in distorted policy conclusions and, potentially, in misguided policies. We illustrate this with four policy-relevant examples, drawn from contemporary Europe. These illustrations show that the TFR…
Sub-Replacement Fertility Intentions in Austria
The End of "Lowest-Low" Fertility
Total fertility rates fell to previously unseen levels in a large number of countries beginning in the early 1990s. The persistence of TFRs below 1.3 raised the possibility of rapid population aging and decline. We discuss the recent widespread turnaround in so-called lowest-low-fertility countries in Europe and East Asia. The number of countries with TFRs below 1.3 fell from 21 in 2003 to five in 2008. Moreover, the upturn in the TFR was not con…
Overview Chapter 7
This contribution looks at the influence of immigration on childbearing trends in the countries of Western, Northern and Southern Europe, which have received relatively large numbers of immigrants during the last decades. It analyses the contribution o
Summary and general conclusions
European fertility early in the 21st century was at its lowest level since the Second World War. This study explores contemporary childbearing trends and policies in Europe, and gives detailed attention to the past two or three decades. We felt motivat
Overview Chapter 1
Early in the 21st century, three-quarters of Europeâ s population lived in countries with fertility considerably below replacement. This general conclusion is arrived at irrespective of whether period or cohort fertility measures are used. In Western an
Economic Recession and Fertility in the Developed World
This article reviews research on the effects of economic recessions on fertility in the developed world. We study how economic downturns, as measured by various indicators, especially by declining GDP levels, falling consumer confdence, and rising unemployment, were found to affect fertility. We also discuss particular mechanisms through which the recession may have influenced fertility behavior, including the effects of economic uncertainty, fal…
Overview Chapter 4
Following the era of the â golden age of marriageâ and the baby boom in the 1950s and 1960s, marriage has declined in importance, and its role as the main institution on which family relations are built has been eroded across Europe. Union formation mos
Two Is Best? The Persistence of a Two‐Child Family Ideal in Europe
How persistent and universal has the two child family ideal been in Europe during the last three decades? We analyze responses of women of reproductive age from 168 surveys conducted in 37 countries in 1979–2012. A two‐child ideal has become nearly universal among women in all parts of Europe. Countries that used to display higher ideal family size have converged over time toward a two‐child model. Six out of ten women in Europe consider two chil…
The End of "Lowest-Low" Fertility
Total fertility rates fell to previously unseen levels in a large number of countries beginning in the early 1990s. The persistence of TFRs below 1.3 raised the possibility of rapid population aging and decline. We discuss the recent widespread turnaround in so-called lowest-low-fertility countries in Europe and East Asia. The number of countries with TFRs below 1.3 fell from 21 in 2003 to five in 2008. Moreover, the upturn in the TFR was not con…
Overview Chapter 6
This chapter discusses the concept of the second demographic transition (SDT) and its relevance for explaining the ongoing changes in family and fertility patterns across Europe. It takes a closer look at the shifts in values and attitudes related to f
Is Lowest‐Low Fertility in Europe Explained by the Postponement of Childbearing
In 2001, more than half of Europe's population lived in countries with a total fertility rate (TFR) at or below 1.3. Use of the adjusted TFR proposed by Bongaarts and Feeney, which takes into account the effects of the ongoing fertility postponement, changes the European fertility map considerably. All 27 countries analyzed had adjusted TFRs in 1995–2000 above 1.4. Thus, the “lowest‐low” fertility in Europe may be interpreted as a temporary conse…
Overview Chapter 7
This contribution looks at the influence of immigration on childbearing trends in the countries of Western, Northern and Southern Europe, which have received relatively large numbers of immigrants during the last decades. It analyses the contribution o
A Demographic Explanation for the Recent Rise in European Fertility
Between 1998 and 2008 European countries experienced the first continent‐wide increase in the period total fertility rate (TFR) since the 1960s. After discussing period and cohort influences on fertility trends, we examine the role of tempo distortions of period fertility and different methods for removing them. We highlight the usefulness of a new indicator: the tempo‐ and parity‐adjusted total fertility rate (TFRp*). This variant of the adjuste…
Overview Chapter 1
Early in the 21st century, three-quarters of Europeâ s population lived in countries with fertility considerably below replacement. This general conclusion is arrived at irrespective of whether period or cohort fertility measures are used. In Western an
Demographic Shifts in the Czech Republic after 1989
Cohort fertility decline in low fertility countries
The long-term decline in cohort fertility in highly developed countries has been widely documented. However, no systematic analysis has investigated which parity contributed most to the fertility decline to low and very low levels
The Great Recession and Fertility in Europe
This study investigates how the changes in labour market conditions and economic growth were associated with fertility before and during the Great Recession in Europe in 2002–2014. In contrast to previous studies, which largely concentrated at the country level, we use data for 251 European regions in 28 European Union (EU) member states prior to the withdrawal of the United Kingdom in January 2020. We apply three-level growth-curve model which a…
The Emergence of Bimodal Fertility Profiles in Latin America
Czech Republic
Following the swift demise of the state-socialist regime in 1989, a profound transformation of family and fertility patterns has taken place in the Czech Republic. Family formation has been postponed and period fertility rates have fallen to very low
Pandemic Roller-Coaster? Birth Trends in Higher-Income Countries During the Covid-19 Pandemic
We use monthly birth data collected by the Human Fertility Database to analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on birth trends until September 2022 in 38 higher-income countries. We also present estimates of the monthly total fertility rate adjusted for seasonality. Our analysis reveals that the pandemic led to distinct swings in births and fertility rates. The initial pandemic shock was associated with a fall in births in most countries, wit…
The Contribution of Assisted Reproduction to Completed Fertility
Assisted reproduction has a minor but increasing influence on childbearing trends in advanced societies. In Denmark, the use of assisted reproduction technology (ART) has become particularly widespread. At the same time, Danish women born in the late 1950s and the 1960s experienced stabilization or even a slight increase in their mean number of children. Broad availability and widespread use of assisted reproduction may become important factors c…
Austria
This chapter offers an in-depth analysis of fertility in Austria, a country which has experienced a low and relatively stable fertility level and a gradual postponement of childbearing since the mid-1980s. We begin by summarising Austrian population tr
Re-Emerging Diversity
Cet article présente une analyse détaillée de l’évolution récente de la fécondité dans 15 pays d’Europe centrale et orientale ainsi que dans l’ex-RDA. L’étude porte essentiellement sur la période postérieure à 1989, marquée par une transformation en profondeur des structures de la fécondité, notamment la baisse rapide des taux de fécondité, le report des naissances et l’augmentation de la proportion de naissances hors mariage. Ces changements son…
Tempo-quantum and period-cohort interplay in fertility changes in Europe
Using detailed data on period and cohort fertility in four European countries, this paper discusses various indicators of period fertility, including indicators adjusted for changes in fertility timing. Empirical analysis focuses on the comparison o
Summary and general conclusions
European fertility early in the 21st century was at its lowest level since the Second World War. This study explores contemporary childbearing trends and policies in Europe, and gives detailed attention to the past two or three decades. We felt motivat
Re-Emerging Diversity
Re-Emerging Diversity: Rapid Fertility Changes in Central and Eastern Europe after the Collapse of the Communist Regimes, Population (English Edition, 2002-), Vol. 58, No. 4/5 (Jul. - Oct., 2003), pp. 451-485
Migration and Intergenerational Replacement in Europe
There are long‐standing concerns over low fertility levels in Europe and an increasingly important debate on the extent to which migration can compensate for below‐replacement fertility. To inform this debate, a wide array of indicators have been developed to assess the joint influence of fertility, mortality, and migration on birth replacement and intergenerational replacement. These indicators are based on various models and assumptions and som…
Seeding the gender revolution
In Europe and the United States, women's educational attainment started to increase around the middle of the twentieth century. The expected implication was fertility decline and postponement, whereas in fact the opposite occurred. We analyse trends in the quantum of cohort fertility among the baby boom generations in 15 countries and how these relate to women's education. Over the 1901-45 cohorts, the proportion of parents with exactly two child…
Ultra-low fertility in South Korea
The total fertility rate (TFR) in South Korea has fallen below 1.3 since 2001. The role of the rapid shift toward a late-childbearing pattern in driving Korean fertility decline to this ultra-low level has been little explored until now
Fertility in Austria, Germany and Switzerland
This article reviews major similarities and differences in period and cohort fertility in Austria, Germany and Switzerland. These three countries share a long history of low fertility and currently belong to countries with the lowest cohort fertility rates globally. The study highlights persistent differences in fertility and family patterns between Eastern and Western Germany, which are often rooted in pre-unification contrasts and can be partly…
Re-Emerging Diversity
Re-Emerging Diversity: Rapid Fertility Changes in Central and Eastern Europe after the Collapse of the Communist Regimes, Population (English Edition, 2002-), Vol. 58, No. 4/5 (Jul. - Oct., 2003), pp. 451-485
Re-Emerging Diversity
Cet article présente une analyse détaillée de l’évolution récente de la fécondité dans 15 pays d’Europe centrale et orientale ainsi que dans l’ex-RDA. L’étude porte essentiellement sur la période postérieure à 1989, marquée par une transformation en profondeur des structures de la fécondité, notamment la baisse rapide des taux de fécondité, le report des naissances et l’augmentation de la proportion de naissances hors mariage. Ces changements son…
Demographic Shifts in the Czech Republic after 1989
Le retour de la diversité
Cet article présente une analyse détaillée de l’évolution récente de la fécondité dans 15 pays d’Europe centrale et orientale ainsi que dans l’ex-RDA. L’étude porte essentiellement sur la période postérieure à 1989, marquée par une transformation en profondeur des structures de la fécondité, notamment la baisse rapide des taux de fécondité, le report des naissances et l’augmentation de la proportion de naissances hors mariage. Ces changements son…
Tempo-quantum and period-cohort interplay in fertility changes in Europe
Using detailed data on period and cohort fertility in four European countries, this paper discusses various indicators of period fertility, including indicators adjusted for changes in fertility timing. Empirical analysis focuses on the comparison o
Famille et parente
Is Lowest‐Low Fertility in Europe Explained by the Postponement of Childbearing
In 2001, more than half of Europe's population lived in countries with a total fertility rate (TFR) at or below 1.3. Use of the adjusted TFR proposed by Bongaarts and Feeney, which takes into account the effects of the ongoing fertility postponement, changes the European fertility map considerably. All 27 countries analyzed had adjusted TFRs in 1995–2000 above 1.4. Thus, the “lowest‐low” fertility in Europe may be interpreted as a temporary conse…
Overview Chapter 7
This contribution looks at the influence of immigration on childbearing trends in the countries of Western, Northern and Southern Europe, which have received relatively large numbers of immigrants during the last decades. It analyses the contribution o
Summary and general conclusions
European fertility early in the 21st century was at its lowest level since the Second World War. This study explores contemporary childbearing trends and policies in Europe, and gives detailed attention to the past two or three decades. We felt motivat
Overview Chapter 1
Early in the 21st century, three-quarters of Europeâ s population lived in countries with fertility considerably below replacement. This general conclusion is arrived at irrespective of whether period or cohort fertility measures are used. In Western an
Overview Chapter 6
This chapter discusses the concept of the second demographic transition (SDT) and its relevance for explaining the ongoing changes in family and fertility patterns across Europe. It takes a closer look at the shifts in values and attitudes related to f
The Contribution of Assisted Reproduction to Completed Fertility
Assisted reproduction has a minor but increasing influence on childbearing trends in advanced societies. In Denmark, the use of assisted reproduction technology (ART) has become particularly widespread. At the same time, Danish women born in the late 1950s and the 1960s experienced stabilization or even a slight increase in their mean number of children. Broad availability and widespread use of assisted reproduction may become important factors c…
Overview Chapter 4
Following the era of the â golden age of marriageâ and the baby boom in the 1950s and 1960s, marriage has declined in importance, and its role as the main institution on which family relations are built has been eroded across Europe. Union formation mos
Czech Republic
Following the swift demise of the state-socialist regime in 1989, a profound transformation of family and fertility patterns has taken place in the Czech Republic. Family formation has been postponed and period fertility rates have fallen to very low
Austria
This chapter offers an in-depth analysis of fertility in Austria, a country which has experienced a low and relatively stable fertility level and a gradual postponement of childbearing since the mid-1980s. We begin by summarising Austrian population tr
Sub-Replacement Fertility Intentions in Austria
The End of "Lowest-Low" Fertility
Total fertility rates fell to previously unseen levels in a large number of countries beginning in the early 1990s. The persistence of TFRs below 1.3 raised the possibility of rapid population aging and decline. We discuss the recent widespread turnaround in so-called lowest-low-fertility countries in Europe and East Asia. The number of countries with TFRs below 1.3 fell from 21 in 2003 to five in 2008. Moreover, the upturn in the TFR was not con…
Economic Recession and Fertility in the Developed World
This article reviews research on the effects of economic recessions on fertility in the developed world. We study how economic downturns, as measured by various indicators, especially by declining GDP levels, falling consumer confdence, and rising unemployment, were found to affect fertility. We also discuss particular mechanisms through which the recession may have influenced fertility behavior, including the effects of economic uncertainty, fal…
Misleading Policy Messages Derived from the Period TFR
Discussions about fertility in developed countries refer almost exclusively to the period Total Fertility Rate (TFR). We argue that the use of this indicator frequently leads to incorrect interpretations of period fertility levels and trends, resulting in distorted policy conclusions and, potentially, in misguided policies. We illustrate this with four policy-relevant examples, drawn from contemporary Europe. These illustrations show that the TFR…
Demographic and medical consequences of the postponement of parenthood
BACKGROUND Across the developed world couples are postponing parenthood. This review assesses the consequences of delayed family formation from a demographic and medical perspective. One main focus is on the quantitative importance of pregnancy postponement. METHODS Medical and social science databases were searched for publications on relevant subjects such as delayed parenthood, female and male age, fertility, infertility, time to pregnancy (TT…
A Demographic Explanation for the Recent Rise in European Fertility
Between 1998 and 2008 European countries experienced the first continent‐wide increase in the period total fertility rate (TFR) since the 1960s. After discussing period and cohort influences on fertility trends, we examine the role of tempo distortions of period fertility and different methods for removing them. We highlight the usefulness of a new indicator: the tempo‐ and parity‐adjusted total fertility rate (TFRp*). This variant of the adjuste…
Postponement and Recuperation in Cohort Fertility
Across developed countries, cohorts of women born after World War II have seen a shift of childbearing towards later ages and a concomitant decline in fertility level. We study this shift using the notions of fertility postponement (fertility decline at younger ages) and subsequent recuperation (a compensatory fertility increase at higher reproductive ages). We apply order-specific data and extend and elaborate on two broad approaches to this pro…
Fertility in Austria, Germany and Switzerland
This article reviews major similarities and differences in period and cohort fertility in Austria, Germany and Switzerland. These three countries share a long history of low fertility and currently belong to countries with the lowest cohort fertility rates globally. The study highlights persistent differences in fertility and family patterns between Eastern and Western Germany, which are often rooted in pre-unification contrasts and can be partly…
Migration and Intergenerational Replacement in Europe
There are long‐standing concerns over low fertility levels in Europe and an increasingly important debate on the extent to which migration can compensate for below‐replacement fertility. To inform this debate, a wide array of indicators have been developed to assess the joint influence of fertility, mortality, and migration on birth replacement and intergenerational replacement. These indicators are based on various models and assumptions and som…
Fertility and Public Policy
Fertility and Public Policy: How to Reverse the Trend of Declining Birth Rates. 2011. Edited by NORIYUKI TAKAYAMA and MARTIN WERDING. Cambridge, MA and London: MIT Press (CES IFO Seminar Series). P
Family Dynamics and Relationships (34 works) · Demography (31 works) · Population (29 works) · Sociology (29 works) · Demographic Trends and Gender Preferences (28 works) · Fertility (28 works) · Economics (26 works) · Geography (21 works) · Demographic economics (20 works) · Total fertility rate (16 works)