Christian Dudel
Biographic Data
| ID | 267269 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Christian Dudel |
| GIVEN NAMES | Christian |
| FAMILY NAME | Dudel |
| SIGNATURE | DUDEL C |
| AFFILIATIONS | Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-2985-6684 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 26 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 91 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 26 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2015 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2026 |
| H-INDEX | 6 |
From Efficiency to Illness
Automation transforms work at a rapid pace, with gradually increasing shares of the workforce at risk of being replaced by machines. However, little is known about how this risk is affecting workers. In this study, we examine the relationship between exposure to high automation risk at work and both subjective (self‐reported health, anxiety, and health satisfaction) and objective (healthcare use and sickness absence) health outcomes of workers in…
Trends in Working Life Expectancy and Untapped Employment Potential in an Ageing Population
The population of Germany is ageing rapidly. As a result, the country's working age population is expected to shrink substantially over the next 15 years. To cope with this challenge, a number of policy reforms have been introduced to activate untapped employment potential and increase the length of working life. However, little is known to what extent employment potentials have already been realised, and what differences exist between socio-econ…
Who works while sick and who enjoys the golden years? Changing disparities in time spent in health and work after age 50 in the United States
While full retirement age in the United States is increasing, longevity improvements have stagnated, Americans with low educational attainment have not experienced delayed health impairments, and there remain substantial racial disparities in morbidity and mortality. Using the Health and Retirement Study, we ran discrete-time multistate models to examine how these trends together shape educational and racial/ethnic differences in expected time sp…
Too many men? Subnational population imbalances and men's childlessness in Finland
Men’s childlessness is increasing in many high-income countries. In Finland, 29 per cent of all men aged 45 were childless in 2022. The cause of these high levels of childlessness is unclear. In this paper, we use rich Finnish population register data to examine whether sex imbalances in regional partner markets are a potential driver of men’s childlessness. Partner markets are imbalanced in a given region if there is a surplus of men relative to…
Revisiting the J-Shape
Economic and social development are closely linked with fertility. Several studies have shown that the relationship follows an inverse J-shape: the association is negative at low and intermediate levels of development and reverses to become positive at high development levels. However, more recent research building on subnational and U.S. data found only mixed evidence for the inverse J-shape. In this article, we draw on subnational data on devel…
Educational inequalities in life expectancy
The Extension of Late Working Life in Germany
The extension of late working life has been proposed as a potential remedy for the challenges of aging societies. For Germany, surprisingly little is known about trends and social inequalities in the length of late working life. We use data from the German Microcensus to estimate working life expectancy from age 55 onward for the 1941‒1955 birth cohorts. We adjust our calculations of working life expectancy for working hours and present results f…
Shifting Parental Age Differences in High-Income Countries
Age differences within couples are of considerable importance for the power relations between partners. These age differences become particularly relevant when couples transition to having a(nother) child, as such an event often results in a renegotiation of the gendered division of labor. Surprisingly, the literature on female empowerment and fertility postponement has so far paid little attention to parental age differences. This paper makes us…
How bad could it be? Worst-case bounds on bias in multistate models due to unobserved transitions
Multistate models are often used in social research to analyze how individuals move between states. A typical application is the estimation of the lifetime spent in a certain state, like the lifetime spent in employment, or the lifetime spent in good health. Unfortunately, the estimation of such quantities is prone to several biases. In this paper, we study the bias due to the often implicitly used assumption that there are no unobserved transiti…
Maternal health, well-being, and employment transitions
Balancing parenthood and employment can be challenging and distressing, particularly for single mothers. At the same time, transitioning to employment can improve the financial situations of single mothers and provide them with access to social networks, which can have beneficial effects on their health and well-being. Currently, however, it is not well understood whether the overall impact of employment on single mothers is positive or negative,…
Inequalities in Retirement Life Span in the United States
Our multistate approach provides an accurate and comprehensive picture of the retirement life span of older Americans over the past two decades. Such findings should be considered in high-level discussions on Social Security. Potential reforms such as raising the eligibility age or cutting benefits may have unexpected implications for different social groups due to their differential effects on retirement initiation and reentry dynamics
Assessing differences in household needs
Equivalence scales are routinely applied to adjust the income of households of different sizes and compositions. Because of their practical importance for the measurement of inequality and poverty, a large number of methods for the estimation of equivalence scales have been proposed. Until now, however, no comprehensive comparison of current methods has been conducted. In this paper, we employ German household expenditure data to estimate equival…
Cumulative Disparities in the Dynamics of Working Poverty for Later Career U.S. Workers (2002–2012)
Many more Americans experience working poverty than unemployed poverty, a situation that was only exacerbated by the Great Recession. The consequences of working poverty for later career workers, who should be at their highest earning ages, are particularly dire. The authors expect that later career workers are especially vulnerable in terms of the risk and duration of working poverty and that those who have accumulated disadvantages over their l…
Male–Female Fertility Differentials Across 17 High-Income Countries
Obtaining cross-country comparative perspectives on male fertility has long been difficult, as male fertility is usually less well registered than female fertility. Recent methodological advancements in imputing missing paternal ages at childbirth enable us to provide a new database on male fertility. This new resource covers more than 330 million live births and is based on a consistent and well-tested set of methods. These methods allow us to h…
Expanding the Markov Chain Toolbox
Markov models are important tools for quantitative social research. In this article, new methods for discrete Markov chains are presented. These methods allow us to calculate the distribution of the occupation time in a subset of the state space, the distribution of the waiting time to first entry into a subset of the state space, and the distribution of the waiting time to final exit from a subset of the state space. To demonstrate the usefulnes…
Cohort Trends in Working Life Expectancies at Age 50 in the United States
Our findings show that studying employment from a cohort perspective reveals crucial information about patterns of working life. The future development of the length of working life should be a major concern for policy-makers
Working and disability expectancies at older ages
The ability to work at older ages depends on health and education. Both accumulate starting very early in life. We assess how childhood disadvantages combine with education to affect working and health trajectories. Applying multistate period life tables to data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) for the period 2008-2014, we estimate how the residual life expectancy at age 50 is distributed in number of years of work and disability, by nu…
Estimating men's fertility from vital registration data with missing values
Comparative perspectives on men's fertility are still rare, in part because vital registration data are often missing paternal age information for a substantial number of births. We compare two imputation approaches that attempt to estimate men's age-specific fertility rates and related measures for data in which paternal age information is missing for a non-negligible number of cases. Taking births with paternal age information as a reference, t…
An Ordinal Measure of Population Health
We propose a population-level health index that addresses two of the main concerns of existing health measures: (1) the biases in self-assessed health measures, and (2) the difficulties associated with making comparisons across populations afflicted by a variety of conditions in a context in which multi-morbidity is high. Starting from a set of general axioms, we derive a partial order index that ranks health across populations based on the relat…
The Legacy of the Great Recession in Italy
Under the pressure of population aging the Italian pension system has undergone reforms to increase labor force participation and retirement age, and, thus, the length of working life. However, how the duration of working life has developed in recent years is not well understood. This paper is the first to analyze trends in working life expectancy in Italy. We use data from a nationally representative longitudinal sample of 880,000 individuals fr…
Trends in gender differences in health at working ages among West and East Germans
Before 1990, Germany was divided for more than 40 years. While divided, significant mortality disparities between the populations of East and West Germany emerged. In the years following reunification, East German mortality improved considerably, eventually converging with West German levels. In this study, we explore changes in the gender differences in health at ages 20-59 across the eastern and western regions of Germany using data from the Ge…
The Length of Working Life in Spain
While there has been considerable debate about extending the length of working life, relatively little is known about this issue. We use data from the Spanish Continuous Working Life Sample for 2004-2013 to calculate period working life tables, which in turn allows us to assess the impact of the financial crisis on working life expectancy in Spain. Before the recession hit, working life expectancy in Spain was around 38 years for males and 33 yea…
Regelbedarfsermittlung für die Grundsicherung
In der Debatte über die Anfang 2017 vorgenommene Neufestsetzung der Sozialleistungen nach dem SGB II und XII kehren viele Themen aus den öffent-lichen Diskussionen vor Einführung des Regelbedarfs-Ermittlungsgesetzes (RBEG) im Jahr 2011 wieder. Entscheidungen über die Höhe dieser Leistungen sind grundsätzlich normativ geprägt. Viele Aspekte des Verfahrens sind aber methodischen Überlegungen zugänglich. Vor diesem Hintergrund diskutiert der Beitrag…
Working Life Expectancy at Age 50 in the United States and the Impact of the Great Recession
A key concern about population aging is the decline in the size of the economically active population. Working longer is a potential remedy. However, little is known about the length of working life and how it relates to macroeconomic conditions. We use the U.S. Health and Retirement Study for 1992–2011 and multistate life tables to analyze working life expectancy at age 50 and study the impact of the Great Recession in 2007–2009. Despite decline…
Estimating male fertility in eastern and western Germany since 1991
Research on fertility differentials between eastern and western Germany after German reuniï¬ cation in 1990 has focused on the fertility of women. Trends in the fertility of men are rarely studied due to data constraints and methodological challenges
Working Life Expectancy at Age 50 in the United States and the Impact of the Great Recession
A key concern about population aging is the decline in the size of the economically active population. Working longer is a potential remedy. However, little is known about the length of working life and how it relates to macroeconomic conditions. We use the U.S. Health and Retirement Study for 1992–2011 and multistate life tables to analyze working life expectancy at age 50 and study the impact of the Great Recession in 2007–2009. Despite decline…
Male–Female Fertility Differentials Across 17 High-Income Countries
Obtaining cross-country comparative perspectives on male fertility has long been difficult, as male fertility is usually less well registered than female fertility. Recent methodological advancements in imputing missing paternal ages at childbirth enable us to provide a new database on male fertility. This new resource covers more than 330 million live births and is based on a consistent and well-tested set of methods. These methods allow us to h…
Estimating male fertility in eastern and western Germany since 1991
Research on fertility differentials between eastern and western Germany after German reuniï¬ cation in 1990 has focused on the fertility of women. Trends in the fertility of men are rarely studied due to data constraints and methodological challenges
Expanding the Markov Chain Toolbox
Markov models are important tools for quantitative social research. In this article, new methods for discrete Markov chains are presented. These methods allow us to calculate the distribution of the occupation time in a subset of the state space, the distribution of the waiting time to first entry into a subset of the state space, and the distribution of the waiting time to final exit from a subset of the state space. To demonstrate the usefulnes…
Shifting Parental Age Differences in High-Income Countries
Age differences within couples are of considerable importance for the power relations between partners. These age differences become particularly relevant when couples transition to having a(nother) child, as such an event often results in a renegotiation of the gendered division of labor. Surprisingly, the literature on female empowerment and fertility postponement has so far paid little attention to parental age differences. This paper makes us…
The Legacy of the Great Recession in Italy
Under the pressure of population aging the Italian pension system has undergone reforms to increase labor force participation and retirement age, and, thus, the length of working life. However, how the duration of working life has developed in recent years is not well understood. This paper is the first to analyze trends in working life expectancy in Italy. We use data from a nationally representative longitudinal sample of 880,000 individuals fr…
Cohort Trends in Working Life Expectancies at Age 50 in the United States
Our findings show that studying employment from a cohort perspective reveals crucial information about patterns of working life. The future development of the length of working life should be a major concern for policy-makers
Working and disability expectancies at older ages
The ability to work at older ages depends on health and education. Both accumulate starting very early in life. We assess how childhood disadvantages combine with education to affect working and health trajectories. Applying multistate period life tables to data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) for the period 2008-2014, we estimate how the residual life expectancy at age 50 is distributed in number of years of work and disability, by nu…
Estimating men's fertility from vital registration data with missing values
Comparative perspectives on men's fertility are still rare, in part because vital registration data are often missing paternal age information for a substantial number of births. We compare two imputation approaches that attempt to estimate men's age-specific fertility rates and related measures for data in which paternal age information is missing for a non-negligible number of cases. Taking births with paternal age information as a reference, t…
Inequalities in Retirement Life Span in the United States
Our multistate approach provides an accurate and comprehensive picture of the retirement life span of older Americans over the past two decades. Such findings should be considered in high-level discussions on Social Security. Potential reforms such as raising the eligibility age or cutting benefits may have unexpected implications for different social groups due to their differential effects on retirement initiation and reentry dynamics
The Length of Working Life in Spain
While there has been considerable debate about extending the length of working life, relatively little is known about this issue. We use data from the Spanish Continuous Working Life Sample for 2004-2013 to calculate period working life tables, which in turn allows us to assess the impact of the financial crisis on working life expectancy in Spain. Before the recession hit, working life expectancy in Spain was around 38 years for males and 33 yea…
How bad could it be? Worst-case bounds on bias in multistate models due to unobserved transitions
Multistate models are often used in social research to analyze how individuals move between states. A typical application is the estimation of the lifetime spent in a certain state, like the lifetime spent in employment, or the lifetime spent in good health. Unfortunately, the estimation of such quantities is prone to several biases. In this paper, we study the bias due to the often implicitly used assumption that there are no unobserved transiti…
Maternal health, well-being, and employment transitions
Balancing parenthood and employment can be challenging and distressing, particularly for single mothers. At the same time, transitioning to employment can improve the financial situations of single mothers and provide them with access to social networks, which can have beneficial effects on their health and well-being. Currently, however, it is not well understood whether the overall impact of employment on single mothers is positive or negative,…
Educational inequalities in life expectancy
The Extension of Late Working Life in Germany
The extension of late working life has been proposed as a potential remedy for the challenges of aging societies. For Germany, surprisingly little is known about trends and social inequalities in the length of late working life. We use data from the German Microcensus to estimate working life expectancy from age 55 onward for the 1941‒1955 birth cohorts. We adjust our calculations of working life expectancy for working hours and present results f…
An Ordinal Measure of Population Health
We propose a population-level health index that addresses two of the main concerns of existing health measures: (1) the biases in self-assessed health measures, and (2) the difficulties associated with making comparisons across populations afflicted by a variety of conditions in a context in which multi-morbidity is high. Starting from a set of general axioms, we derive a partial order index that ranks health across populations based on the relat…
Vorausberechnung des Pflegepotentials von erwachsenen Kindern für ihre pflegebedürftigen Eltern
Momentan wird in Deutschland ein großer Anteil der älteren Pflegebedürftigen durch Angehörige versorgt. In Hinblick auf den demographischen Wandel stellt sich die Frage, wie sich dieser Anteil zukünftig verändern wird. In dieser Arbeit werden Vorausberechnungen vorgestellt, die diese Frage für eine wichtige Teilgruppe der pflegenden Angehörigen beantworten: die Kinder der Pflegebedürftigen. Dabei werden spezielle Verfahren zur Modellierung von Ve…
Vorausberechnung des Pflegepotentials von erwachsenen Kindern für ihre pflegebedürftigen Eltern
Momentan wird in Deutschland ein großer Anteil der älteren Pflegebedürftigen durch Angehörige versorgt. In Hinblick auf den demographischen Wandel stellt sich die Frage, wie sich dieser Anteil zukünftig verändern wird. In dieser Arbeit werden Vorausberechnungen vorgestellt, die diese Frage für eine wichtige Teilgruppe der pflegenden Angehörigen beantworten: die Kinder der Pflegebedürftigen. Dabei werden spezielle Verfahren zur Modellierung von Ve…
Estimating male fertility in eastern and western Germany since 1991
Research on fertility differentials between eastern and western Germany after German reuniï¬ cation in 1990 has focused on the fertility of women. Trends in the fertility of men are rarely studied due to data constraints and methodological challenges
Regelbedarfsermittlung für die Grundsicherung
In der Debatte über die Anfang 2017 vorgenommene Neufestsetzung der Sozialleistungen nach dem SGB II und XII kehren viele Themen aus den öffent-lichen Diskussionen vor Einführung des Regelbedarfs-Ermittlungsgesetzes (RBEG) im Jahr 2011 wieder. Entscheidungen über die Höhe dieser Leistungen sind grundsätzlich normativ geprägt. Viele Aspekte des Verfahrens sind aber methodischen Überlegungen zugänglich. Vor diesem Hintergrund diskutiert der Beitrag…
Working Life Expectancy at Age 50 in the United States and the Impact of the Great Recession
A key concern about population aging is the decline in the size of the economically active population. Working longer is a potential remedy. However, little is known about the length of working life and how it relates to macroeconomic conditions. We use the U.S. Health and Retirement Study for 1992–2011 and multistate life tables to analyze working life expectancy at age 50 and study the impact of the Great Recession in 2007–2009. Despite decline…
Trends in gender differences in health at working ages among West and East Germans
Before 1990, Germany was divided for more than 40 years. While divided, significant mortality disparities between the populations of East and West Germany emerged. In the years following reunification, East German mortality improved considerably, eventually converging with West German levels. In this study, we explore changes in the gender differences in health at ages 20-59 across the eastern and western regions of Germany using data from the Ge…
The Length of Working Life in Spain
While there has been considerable debate about extending the length of working life, relatively little is known about this issue. We use data from the Spanish Continuous Working Life Sample for 2004-2013 to calculate period working life tables, which in turn allows us to assess the impact of the financial crisis on working life expectancy in Spain. Before the recession hit, working life expectancy in Spain was around 38 years for males and 33 yea…
Estimating men's fertility from vital registration data with missing values
Comparative perspectives on men's fertility are still rare, in part because vital registration data are often missing paternal age information for a substantial number of births. We compare two imputation approaches that attempt to estimate men's age-specific fertility rates and related measures for data in which paternal age information is missing for a non-negligible number of cases. Taking births with paternal age information as a reference, t…
An Ordinal Measure of Population Health
We propose a population-level health index that addresses two of the main concerns of existing health measures: (1) the biases in self-assessed health measures, and (2) the difficulties associated with making comparisons across populations afflicted by a variety of conditions in a context in which multi-morbidity is high. Starting from a set of general axioms, we derive a partial order index that ranks health across populations based on the relat…
The Legacy of the Great Recession in Italy
Under the pressure of population aging the Italian pension system has undergone reforms to increase labor force participation and retirement age, and, thus, the length of working life. However, how the duration of working life has developed in recent years is not well understood. This paper is the first to analyze trends in working life expectancy in Italy. We use data from a nationally representative longitudinal sample of 880,000 individuals fr…
Cohort Trends in Working Life Expectancies at Age 50 in the United States
Our findings show that studying employment from a cohort perspective reveals crucial information about patterns of working life. The future development of the length of working life should be a major concern for policy-makers
Working and disability expectancies at older ages
The ability to work at older ages depends on health and education. Both accumulate starting very early in life. We assess how childhood disadvantages combine with education to affect working and health trajectories. Applying multistate period life tables to data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) for the period 2008-2014, we estimate how the residual life expectancy at age 50 is distributed in number of years of work and disability, by nu…
Assessing differences in household needs
Equivalence scales are routinely applied to adjust the income of households of different sizes and compositions. Because of their practical importance for the measurement of inequality and poverty, a large number of methods for the estimation of equivalence scales have been proposed. Until now, however, no comprehensive comparison of current methods has been conducted. In this paper, we employ German household expenditure data to estimate equival…
Cumulative Disparities in the Dynamics of Working Poverty for Later Career U.S. Workers (2002–2012)
Many more Americans experience working poverty than unemployed poverty, a situation that was only exacerbated by the Great Recession. The consequences of working poverty for later career workers, who should be at their highest earning ages, are particularly dire. The authors expect that later career workers are especially vulnerable in terms of the risk and duration of working poverty and that those who have accumulated disadvantages over their l…
Male–Female Fertility Differentials Across 17 High-Income Countries
Obtaining cross-country comparative perspectives on male fertility has long been difficult, as male fertility is usually less well registered than female fertility. Recent methodological advancements in imputing missing paternal ages at childbirth enable us to provide a new database on male fertility. This new resource covers more than 330 million live births and is based on a consistent and well-tested set of methods. These methods allow us to h…
Expanding the Markov Chain Toolbox
Markov models are important tools for quantitative social research. In this article, new methods for discrete Markov chains are presented. These methods allow us to calculate the distribution of the occupation time in a subset of the state space, the distribution of the waiting time to first entry into a subset of the state space, and the distribution of the waiting time to final exit from a subset of the state space. To demonstrate the usefulnes…
Inequalities in Retirement Life Span in the United States
Our multistate approach provides an accurate and comprehensive picture of the retirement life span of older Americans over the past two decades. Such findings should be considered in high-level discussions on Social Security. Potential reforms such as raising the eligibility age or cutting benefits may have unexpected implications for different social groups due to their differential effects on retirement initiation and reentry dynamics
Educational inequalities in life expectancy
The Extension of Late Working Life in Germany
The extension of late working life has been proposed as a potential remedy for the challenges of aging societies. For Germany, surprisingly little is known about trends and social inequalities in the length of late working life. We use data from the German Microcensus to estimate working life expectancy from age 55 onward for the 1941‒1955 birth cohorts. We adjust our calculations of working life expectancy for working hours and present results f…
Shifting Parental Age Differences in High-Income Countries
Age differences within couples are of considerable importance for the power relations between partners. These age differences become particularly relevant when couples transition to having a(nother) child, as such an event often results in a renegotiation of the gendered division of labor. Surprisingly, the literature on female empowerment and fertility postponement has so far paid little attention to parental age differences. This paper makes us…
How bad could it be? Worst-case bounds on bias in multistate models due to unobserved transitions
Multistate models are often used in social research to analyze how individuals move between states. A typical application is the estimation of the lifetime spent in a certain state, like the lifetime spent in employment, or the lifetime spent in good health. Unfortunately, the estimation of such quantities is prone to several biases. In this paper, we study the bias due to the often implicitly used assumption that there are no unobserved transiti…
Maternal health, well-being, and employment transitions
Balancing parenthood and employment can be challenging and distressing, particularly for single mothers. At the same time, transitioning to employment can improve the financial situations of single mothers and provide them with access to social networks, which can have beneficial effects on their health and well-being. Currently, however, it is not well understood whether the overall impact of employment on single mothers is positive or negative,…
Revisiting the J-Shape
Economic and social development are closely linked with fertility. Several studies have shown that the relationship follows an inverse J-shape: the association is negative at low and intermediate levels of development and reverses to become positive at high development levels. However, more recent research building on subnational and U.S. data found only mixed evidence for the inverse J-shape. In this article, we draw on subnational data on devel…
Who works while sick and who enjoys the golden years? Changing disparities in time spent in health and work after age 50 in the United States
While full retirement age in the United States is increasing, longevity improvements have stagnated, Americans with low educational attainment have not experienced delayed health impairments, and there remain substantial racial disparities in morbidity and mortality. Using the Health and Retirement Study, we ran discrete-time multistate models to examine how these trends together shape educational and racial/ethnic differences in expected time sp…
Too many men? Subnational population imbalances and men's childlessness in Finland
Men’s childlessness is increasing in many high-income countries. In Finland, 29 per cent of all men aged 45 were childless in 2022. The cause of these high levels of childlessness is unclear. In this paper, we use rich Finnish population register data to examine whether sex imbalances in regional partner markets are a potential driver of men’s childlessness. Partner markets are imbalanced in a given region if there is a surplus of men relative to…
From Efficiency to Illness
Automation transforms work at a rapid pace, with gradually increasing shares of the workforce at risk of being replaced by machines. However, little is known about how this risk is affecting workers. In this study, we examine the relationship between exposure to high automation risk at work and both subjective (self‐reported health, anxiety, and health satisfaction) and objective (healthcare use and sickness absence) health outcomes of workers in…
Population (18 works) · Sociology (18 works) · Demography (16 works) · Economics (15 works) · Retirement, Disability, and Employment (13 works) · Demographic economics (12 works) · Employment and Welfare Studies (12 works) · Global Health Care Issues (11 works) · Demography (10 works) · Geography (10 works)