Peter Congdon
Biographic Data
| ID | 305656 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Peter Congdon |
| GIVEN NAMES | Peter |
| FAMILY NAME | Congdon |
| SIGNATURE | CONGDON P |
| AFFILIATIONS | Queen Mary University of London |
| ORCID | 0000-0003-1934-9205 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 68 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 297 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 68 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1980 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2026 |
| H-INDEX | 8 |
Impacts of Social Environments on Neighborhood Depression Incidence
Neighborhood variations in depression, an important aspect of the overall mental health burden, have been linked both to environmental context (e.g., area crime, neighborhood cohesion), and to area socio-demographic composition. Previous models seeking to explain such spatial variations in mental health, such as those based on Bayesian disease mapping, follow a standard approach defined by: spatially stationary effects of area predictors; predict…
Suicide variations between English neighbourhoods over 2017-21
The ethnic density effect as a contextual influence in ecological disease models
Research suggests higher neighbourhood ethnic minority density to be associated with lessened chances of ethnic group illness. We focus on the density effect on psychosis, arguing that (at higher ethnic concentrations) it acts as a contextual influence attenuating the compositional influence whereby minority ethnicity is associated with higher psychosis risk. In terms of ecological disease regression, the ethnic density effect will then be appare…
Measuring Obesogenicity and Assessing Its Impact on Child Obesity
Both major influences on changing obesity levels (diet and physical activity) may be mediated by the environment, with environments that promote higher weight being denoted obesogenic. However, while many conceptual descriptions and definitions of obesogenic environments are available, relatively few attempts have been made to quantify obesogenic environments (obesogenicity). The current study is an ecological study (using area units as observati…
A Model for Highly Fluctuating Spatio-Temporal Infection Data, with Applications to the Covid Epidemic
Spatio-temporal models need to address specific features of spatio-temporal infection data, such as periods of stable infection levels (endemicity), followed by epidemic phases, as well as infection spread from neighbouring areas. In this paper, we consider a mixture-link model for infection counts that allows alternation between epidemic phases (possibly multiple) and stable endemicity, with higher AR1 coefficients in epidemic phases. This is a …
Adverse conditions for wellbeing at the neighbourhood scale in England
Data on 17,298 English respondents from two waves of the Understanding Society Survey. • Our composite area disadvantage indicator predicts change in self-reported wellbeing. • This analysis controls for characteristics of the individuals themselves. • Survey respondents’ sense of social cohesion may operate as an intermediate factor. • Findings demonstrate how to operationalise the idea of ‘wellbeing of (and in) places’
Geographical Aspects of Recent Trends in Drug-Related Deaths, with a Focus on Intra-National Contextual Variation
Intra-national differences in drug-related deaths are considerable, but there are significant research gaps in the evidence base for small area analysis of such deaths
A diabetes risk index for small areas in England
Trajectories in mental health and socio-spatial conditions in a time of economic recovery and austerity
Geographical Patterns in Drug-Related Mortality and Suicide
There are increasing concerns regarding upward trends in drug-related deaths in a number of developed societies. In some countries, these have been paralleled by upward trends in suicide. Of frequent concern to public health policy are local variations in these outcomes, and the factors underlying them. In this paper, we consider the geographic pattern of drug-related deaths and suicide for 2012-2016 across 6791 small areas in England. The aim is…
Spatial heterogeneity in Bayesian disease mapping
Disease mapping applications generally assume homogeneous regression effects and use random intercepts to account for residual spatial dependence. However, there may be local variation in the association between disease and area risk factors. We consider implications for model fit, estimated regression coefficients, and substantive inferences of allowing spatial variability in impacts of area risk factors. An application to suicide in 6791 Englis…
Variations in Obesity Rates between US Counties
There is much ongoing research about the effect of the urban environment as compared with individual behaviour on growing obesity levels, including food environment, settlement patterns (e.g., sprawl, walkability, commuting patterns), and activity access. This paper considers obesity variations between US counties, and delineates the main dimensions of geographic variation in obesity between counties: by urban-rural status, by region, by area pov…
Assessing Impacts on Unplanned Hospitalisations of Care Quality and Access Using a Structural Equation Method
Using a Bayesian inference methodology, the evidence from the analysis is weighted towards negative impacts of higher primary care quality and improved access on unplanned admissions. The methodology of the paper is potentially applicable to other long term conditions, and relevant when care quality and access cannot be measured directly and are better regarded as latent variables
Explaining variations in obesity and inactivity between US metropolitan areas
Spatially Interpolated Disease Prevalence Estimation Using Collateral Indicators of Morbidity and Ecological Risk
This paper considers estimation of disease prevalence for small areas (neighbourhoods) when the available observations on prevalence are for an alternative partition of a region, such as service areas. Interpolation to neighbourhoods uses a kernel method extended to take account of two types of collateral information. The first is morbidity and service use data, such as hospital admissions, observed for neighbourhoods. Variations in morbidity and…
Small-area health comparisons using health-adjusted life expectancies
Assessing the Impact of Socioeconomic Variables on Small Area Variations in Suicide Outcomes in England
Ecological studies of suicide and self-harm have established the importance of area variables (e.g., deprivation, social fragmentation) in explaining variations in suicide risk. However, there are likely to be unobserved influences on risk, typically spatially clustered, which can be modeled as random effects. Regression impacts may be biased if no account is taken of spatially structured influences on risk. Furthermore a default assumption of li…
The impact of nursing homes on small-area life expectancies
The Spatial Pattern of Suicide in the US in Relation to Deprivation, Fragmentation and Rurality
Analysis of geographical patterns of suicide and psychiatric morbidity has demonstrated the impact of latent ecological variables (such as deprivation, rurality). Such latent variables may be derived by conventional multivariate techniques from sets of observed indices (for example, by principal components), by composite variable methods or by methods which explicitly consider the spatial framework of areas and, in particular, the spatial cluster…
Estimating Prevalence of Coronary Heart Disease for Small Areas Using Collateral Indicators of Morbidity
Different indicators of morbidity for chronic disease may not necessarily be available at a disaggregated spatial scale (e.g., for small areas with populations under 10 thousand). Instead certain indicators may only be available at a more highly aggregated spatial scale; for example, deaths may be recorded for small areas, but disease prevalence only at a considerably higher spatial scale. Nevertheless prevalence estimates at small area level are…
A Multilevel Model for Comorbid Outcomes
Multilevel models are overwhelmingly applied to single health outcomes, but when two or more health conditions are closely related, it is important that contextual variation in their joint prevalence (e.g., variations over different geographic settings) is considered. A multinomial multilevel logit regression approach for analysing joint prevalence is proposed here that includes subject level risk factors (e.g., age, race, education) while also t…
County variation in use of inpatient and ambulatory psychiatric care in New York State 1999–2001
Estimating CHD prevalence by small area
A model for geographical variation in health and total life expectancy
This paper develops a joint approach to life and health expectancy based on 2001 UK Census data for limiting long term illness and general health status, and on registered death occurrences in 2001. The model takes account of the interdependence o
Psychological distress among adolescents, and its relationship to individual, family and area characteristics in East London
This paper identifies factors associated with variation in psychosocial distress among adolescents in a relatively deprived and ethnically diverse inner city setting in London, UK. The research draws on literature which discusses whether neighbourhood socio-economic conditions are associated with mental health, as well as attributes of individual adolescents and their families. We report an analysis of data from the Research with East London Adol…
Modelling inequality in reported long term illness in the UK
STUDY OBJECTIVE: To assess the nature of the relation between health and social factors at both the aggregated scale of geographical areas and the individual scale. DESIGN AND SETTING: The individual data are derived from the sample of anonymised records (SAR) from the census of 1991 in Great Britain, and are combined with area data from this census. The ecological setting (context) was defined using multivariate methods to classify the 278 distr…
Area effects on health variation over the life-course
Suicide and Parasuicide in London
This study discusses variability in the spatial prevalence of suicide and parasuicide across small areas in London in relation to the social and demographic composition of their populations. The focus is on the relative importance in explaining suicidal outcomes of variables representing respectively social deprivation, psychiatric morbidity and anomie (or community fragmentation), and of differentiation in the effects of these factors across sub…
Psychological distress among adolescents, and its relationship to individual, family and area characteristics in East London
This paper identifies factors associated with variation in psychosocial distress among adolescents in a relatively deprived and ethnically diverse inner city setting in London, UK. The research draws on literature which discusses whether neighbourhood socio-economic conditions are associated with mental health, as well as attributes of individual adolescents and their families. We report an analysis of data from the Research with East London Adol…
The Impact of Area Context on Long Term Illness and Premature Mortality
CONGDON P. (1995) The impact of area context on long term illness and premature mortality: an illustration of multi-level analysis, Reg. Studies 29, 327–344. Small area differences in rates of mortality and long term illness are studied by a multi-level technique with a view to establishing the mediating effect of area context on the health-deprivation link for the populations of small areas. In particular, the question of whether deprivation has…
The ecological relationship between deprivation, social isolation and rates of hospital admission for acute psychiatric care
An Analysis of Population and Social Change in London Wards in the 1980s
This paper discusses the estimation and projection of small area populations in London, [England] and considers trends in intercensal social and demographic indices which can be calculated using these estimates. Information available annually on vital statistics and electorates is combined with detailed data from the Census Small Area Statistics to derive demographic component based population estimates for London's electoral wards over five year…
The Spatial Pattern of Suicide in the US in Relation to Deprivation, Fragmentation and Rurality
Analysis of geographical patterns of suicide and psychiatric morbidity has demonstrated the impact of latent ecological variables (such as deprivation, rurality). Such latent variables may be derived by conventional multivariate techniques from sets of observed indices (for example, by principal components), by composite variable methods or by methods which explicitly consider the spatial framework of areas and, in particular, the spatial cluster…
Geographic variation in illness and mortality
Trajectories in mental health and socio-spatial conditions in a time of economic recovery and austerity
The impact of nursing homes on small-area life expectancies
Quantifying and explaining changes in geographical inequality of infant mortality in England and Wales since the 1890s
This paper considers the changing spatial pattern of infant mortality in England and Wales over the last century for a constant area definition. The analysis proceeds at the level of registration districts as defined in the 1890s, generated using the British Isles Historical Geographical Information System. Infant mortality at this spatial definition is followed over four points in time, the most recent being the early 1990s. Using a variety of i…
Geographical variation in acute psychiatric admissions within New York City 1990–2000
The paper analyses geographical variations in use of acute psychiatric inpatient services within New York City and how these have changed from 1990 to 2000. We review literature suggesting reasons for the variations observed. Data from the New York State Department of Health Statewide Planning Research and Cooperative System were combined with population census data to produce age standardized ratio indicators of admissions and of bed days, as me…
Approaches to Modelling Overdispersion in the Analysis of Migration
In this paper the modelling of overdispersion in generalised Poisson and multinomial models of migration flows and rates is considered, and its importance within the wider question of substantive model specification is shown. It is argued that substantive specification and the modelling of overdispersion are closely interrelated. Simplified ways of estimating the form of overdispersion-moments methods and pseudo-likelihood-are considered wherever…
Bayesian models for spatial incidence
Graduation of Fertility Schedules
CONGDON P. (1990) Graduation of fertility schedules: an analysis of fertility patterns in London in the 1980s and an application to fertility forecasts, Reg. Studies 24, 311–326. The plot of age-specific fertility rates for a local or regional population is typically so ragged that smoothing of the curve is necessary before analysis and forecasting. The fitting of a parametric function to fertility in the London boroughs is described, together wi…
Modelling Migration Flows between Areas
This paper analyses migration between the London boroughs using a discrete probability model, but with a correction for excess dispersion to that expected under the Poisson process. Two sources of migration data are used: one-year migration from the 1981 Census; and ten-year migration from the OPCS Longitudinal Study. The evidence from both sets is that both housing and labour market factors are relevant to explaining interborough migration, in a…
Analysis of ethnic influence on stillbirths and infant mortality in Bradford 1975-81
The patterns of mortality from birth to 1 year in Bradford were studied in the seven year period 1975-81. Large differences in mortality between the Asian and non-Asian population were shown. In 1981 77% of Bradford Asian families were of Pakistani origin, the remaining 23% consisting of families from other parts of the Indian subcontinent and a few from East Africa. There were excess mortality with associated congenital abnormality in the Asian …
Monitoring Suicide Mortality
Socio-economic Structure and Health in London
This paper considers socio-economic restructuring in London's small areas over two decades, in relation to broader changes in labour and housing markets. The relation of changing social structure to wider evidence of changes in inequality is discussed, with particular regard to the impact of socio-economic structure on health and mortality. The scale of the analysis is at ward level using census data for 1971, 1981 and 1991 and mortality data ove…
The Interdependence of Geographical Migration with Job and Housing Mobility in London
A multinomial logit model is developed to analyse the association between residential migration within and from London with employment and tenure mobility. Migration is shown to interact more strongly with tenure change than career shifts, and with changes of workplace as against changes in occupation in general.... While occupational mobility and job-linked migration are higher among lower income workers, they are positively related to education…
Explaining variations in obesity and inactivity between US metropolitan areas
Small area variations in infant mortality in England and Wales in the inter-war period and their link with socio-economic factors
Spatiotemporal models for small-area social indicators
Modelling Population Changes in Small English Urban Areas
Research on urbanisation has been hampered by discrepancies between the administrative boundaries of towns and a meaningful spatial framework of urbanism that recognises both the true extent of the built-up areas of towns and the functional linkages between urban centres and their surrounding hinterland. An 'urban area' definition has been recently developed for British census statistics to represent the physical reality of urban boundaries in te…
Forecasting births in Greater London
A model for forecasting fertility is proposed in which an attempt is made to represent the cyclical fluctuations in fertility typical of developed societies. R. A. Easterlin has put forward the hypothesis that relative affluence, i.e. tension between material aspirations and resources, is an important determinant of fertility behaviour. Relative cohort size in turn affects relative affluence, because the size of a cohort influences its competitiv…
A Model for the Interaction of Migration and Commuting
This paper presents a simultaneous equations model for the interaction of migration with changes in commuting, employment and housing stocks, and applies the model to census data for Greater London. Different spatial frames of reference are used: intra-metropolitan, intra-regional, and national. The results suggest an interdependence of migration and commuting with the decentralisation of employment within Greater London. Migration is influenced …
Analysis of ethnic influence on stillbirths and infant mortality in Bradford 1975-81
The patterns of mortality from birth to 1 year in Bradford were studied in the seven year period 1975-81. Large differences in mortality between the Asian and non-Asian population were shown. In 1981 77% of Bradford Asian families were of Pakistani origin, the remaining 23% consisting of families from other parts of the Indian subcontinent and a few from East Africa. There were excess mortality with associated congenital abnormality in the Asian …
Modelling Population Changes in Small English Urban Areas
Research on urbanisation has been hampered by discrepancies between the administrative boundaries of towns and a meaningful spatial framework of urbanism that recognises both the true extent of the built-up areas of towns and the functional linkages between urban centres and their surrounding hinterland. An 'urban area' definition has been recently developed for British census statistics to represent the physical reality of urban boundaries in te…
Components of Social Change in Urban Areas
A model for components of social change which distinguishes expected or structural change from positional change is applied to census indices for physically defined urban areas in England. Census profiles are evaluated for groups of urban areas defined by positional change. The model of change used shows a widening of unemployment differentials but convergence in housing stress and car home ownership. At local level, outer city municipal estates …
Occupational Mobility and Labour Market Structure
The rate of occupational mobility is modeled as a semi-Markov process, decomposed to reflect l abor market segmentation within firms and occupations. The work histo ries analyzed are from an Irish mobility study. Moves by type are fur ther classified by occupational and industry groups to investigate di fferences in career patterns by sector. Mobility components are model ed as a function of job duration, age, and the match between resource s and…
The Interdependence of Geographical Migration with Job and Housing Mobility in London
A multinomial logit model is developed to analyse the association between residential migration within and from London with employment and tenure mobility. Migration is shown to interact more strongly with tenure change than career shifts, and with changes of workplace as against changes in occupation in general.... While occupational mobility and job-linked migration are higher among lower income workers, they are positively related to education…
Gender and space in London in the 1980s
Considers differentiation by gender in household and demographic structure and in labour market opportunities in London in the 1980s. Uses small area wards as the basic level of analysis, and relates gender segmentation to other dimensions of social structure and change, especially socio-economic structure and change, and spatial variations in family status. Finds evidence of continued sexual inequality in London's labour market, for example in p…
Fertility forecasts and structural interpretations
Time series forecasts of fertility series are investigated in terms of control cycles arising from fluctuations in relative cohort size. Use of autoregressive-moving average models applied to fertility series reproduces cycles longer than the generational cycles expected under the classic renewal model, both at national and regional levels. The cohort size effect is explicitly incorporated into a time series model and found to differ by age group…
Modelling Migration Flows between Areas
This paper analyses migration between the London boroughs using a discrete probability model, but with a correction for excess dispersion to that expected under the Poisson process. Two sources of migration data are used: one-year migration from the 1981 Census; and ten-year migration from the OPCS Longitudinal Study. The evidence from both sets is that both housing and labour market factors are relevant to explaining interborough migration, in a…
An Analysis of Population and Social Change in London Wards in the 1980s
This paper discusses the estimation and projection of small area populations in London, [England] and considers trends in intercensal social and demographic indices which can be calculated using these estimates. Information available annually on vital statistics and electorates is combined with detailed data from the Census Small Area Statistics to derive demographic component based population estimates for London's electoral wards over five year…
Issues in the Analysis of Small Area Mortality
This paper considers mortality variation between small areas in London during the 1980s in both a cross-sectional and a temporal perspective. The analysis takes account of the special nature of small area mortality data and incorporates sampling variation in addition to extraneous variation, as well as investigating the extent of autocorrelation, both spatial and temporal. The strongest association between socio-economic structure and mortality i…
Graduation of Fertility Schedules
CONGDON P. (1990) Graduation of fertility schedules: an analysis of fertility patterns in London in the 1980s and an application to fertility forecasts, Reg. Studies 24, 311–326. The plot of age-specific fertility rates for a local or regional population is typically so ragged that smoothing of the curve is necessary before analysis and forecasting. The fitting of a parametric function to fertility in the London boroughs is described, together wi…
The outer suburbs and metropolitan social change
This study uses a range of contemporary (non-census) and 1981 Census indicators to delineate a social, demographic and economic structure of London's outer suburbs, and highlight the main dimensions of social change in the 1970s and 1980s. Comparisons are drawn with socio- economic restructuring in the inner city. The evidence suggests that for a mature metropolis, with restricted opportunities for peripheral growth through planning and other con…
Introduction
Spatiotemporal models for small-area social indicators
Spatiotemporal Models for Small‐area Social Indicators
Introduction
Multiregional Demographic Projections in Practice
This paper examines options for local and regional projections which reflect both demographic interdependencies with jobs and housing at this area scale, and the inapplicability of traditional demographic projection methods to population or areal subdivisions. This context for local demographic projections requires constraints (for example, to job and housing forecasts or to higher area totals), the use of proxy or explanatory indicators to predi…
Approaches to Modelling Overdispersion in the Analysis of Migration
In this paper the modelling of overdispersion in generalised Poisson and multinomial models of migration flows and rates is considered, and its importance within the wider question of substantive model specification is shown. It is argued that substantive specification and the modelling of overdispersion are closely interrelated. Simplified ways of estimating the form of overdispersion-moments methods and pseudo-likelihood-are considered wherever…
Life table analysis for areas using vital register data
Socio-economic Structure and Health in London
This paper considers socio-economic restructuring in London's small areas over two decades, in relation to broader changes in labour and housing markets. The relation of changing social structure to wider evidence of changes in inequality is discussed, with particular regard to the impact of socio-economic structure on health and mortality. The scale of the analysis is at ward level using census data for 1971, 1981 and 1991 and mortality data ove…
Localities for Epidemiological Monitoring and Health Policy
The impetus behind locality arrangements in Health Districts in the UK is discussed in terms of recent reform of the structure of health services, and in particular the greater stress on primary and community provision, and on health prevention and promotion. Implications for needs assessment and resource allocation are considered. The advantages of using localities for epidemiological monitoring and for assessing inequality are illustrated with …
The Impact of Area Context on Long Term Illness and Premature Mortality
CONGDON P. (1995) The impact of area context on long term illness and premature mortality: an illustration of multi-level analysis, Reg. Studies 29, 327–344. Small area differences in rates of mortality and long term illness are studied by a multi-level technique with a view to establishing the mediating effect of area context on the health-deprivation link for the populations of small areas. In particular, the question of whether deprivation has…
Micro- and Aggregate Perspectives on Life Table Heterogeneity
Geography (50 works) · Sociology (42 works) · Demography (41 works) · Health disparities and outcomes (37 works) · Population (37 works) · Medicine (36 works) · Demography (33 works) · Environmental health (27 works) · Economics (25 works) · Statistics (22 works)