Sonia I Seneviratne
Biographic Data
| ID | 3599816 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Sonia I Seneviratne |
| GIVEN NAMES | Sonia I |
| FAMILY NAME | Seneviratne |
| SIGNATURE | SENEVIRATNE S I |
| AFFILIATIONS | ETH Zurich |
| ORCID | 0000-0001-9528-2917 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 47 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 2 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 47 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2006 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2025 |
| H-INDEX | 1 |
Recent climate impacts on run-of-river hydropower and electricity systems planning in Switzerland
The transition towards renewable energies together with climate change is rendering electricity systems more vulnerable to climate conditions and trends. This study examines the impacts of recent climate change and variability on run-of-river (RoR) hydropower production and electricity systems planning. We present an end-to-end pipeline to convert runoff and hydropower specifications into hydropower generation and subsequently integrate it into a…
Climate damage projections beyond annual temperature
Estimates of global economic damage from climate change assess the effect of annual temperature changes. However, the roles of precipitation, temperature variability and extreme events are not yet known. Here, by combining projections of climate models with empirical dose–response functions translating shifts in temperature means and variability, rainfall patterns and extreme precipitation into economic damage, we show that at +3 ° C global avera…
Combining climate models and observations to predict the time remaining until regional warming thresholds are reached
The importance of climate change for driving adverse climate impacts has motivated substantial effort to understand the rate and magnitude of regional climate change in different parts of the world. However, despite decades of research, there is substantial uncertainty in the time remaining until specific regional temperature thresholds are reached, with climate models often disagreeing both on the warming that has occurred to-date, as well as th…
Future changes in spatially compounding hot, wet or dry events and their implications for the world’s breadbasket regions
Recent years were characterized by an increase in spatially co-occurring hot, wet or dry extreme events around the globe. In this study we analyze data from multi-model climate projections to analyze the occurrence of spatially compounding events and area affected in future climates under scenarios at +1.5 ∘ C, +2.0 ∘ C, +3.0 ∘ C and higher levels of global warming using Earth System Model simulations from the 6th Phase of the Coupled Model Inter…
Climate policies for carbon neutrality should not rely on the uncertain increase of carbon stocks in existing forests
The international community, through treaties such as the Paris agreement, aims to limit climate change to well below 2 °C, which implies reaching carbon neutrality around the second half of the century. In the current calculations underpinning the various roadmaps toward carbon neutrality, a major component is a steady or even expanding terrestrial carbon sink, supported by an increase of global forest biomass. However, recent research has chall…
The footprint of human-induced climate change on heat-related deaths in the summer of 2022 in Switzerland
Human-induced climate change is leading to an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, which are severely affecting the health of the population. The exceptional heat during the summer of 2022 in Europe is an example, with record-breaking temperatures only below the infamous 2003 summer. High ambient temperatures are associated with many health outcomes, including premature mortality. However, there is limited quantitati…
A compound event-oriented framework to tropical fire risk assessment in a changing climate
Tropical fire activity closely follows the co-occurrence of multiple climate stressors. Yet, it remains challenging to quantify how changes in climate alter the likelihood of fire risks associated with compound events. Recent abrupt changes in fire regimes in iconic landscapes in Brazil (namely the Pantanal and Xingu) provide a key opportunity to evaluate how extremely dry and hot conditions, both together and individually, have influenced the pr…
The role of urban trees in reducing land surface temperatures in European cities
Urban trees influence temperatures in cities. However, their effectiveness at mitigating urban heat in different climatic contexts and in comparison to treeless urban green spaces has not yet been sufficiently explored. Here, we use high-resolution satellite land surface temperatures (LSTs) and land-cover data from 293 European cities to infer the potential of urban trees to reduce LSTs. We show that urban trees exhibit lower temperatures than ur…
Hot weather and heat extremes
Intergenerational inequities in exposure to climate extremes
Young generations are severely threatened by climate change
Reducing the health effects of hot weather and heat extremes
A framework for complex climate change risk assessment
Real-world experience underscores the complexity of interactions among multiple drivers of climate change risk and of how multiple risks compound or cascade. However, a holistic framework for assessing such complex climate change risks has not yet been achieved. Clarity is needed regarding the interactions that generate risk, including the role of adaptation and mitigation responses. In this perspective, we present a framework for three categorie…
Pathways of climate resilience over the 21st century
The impacts of climate change are affecting human societies today. In parallel, socio-economic development has increased the capacity of countries around the global to adapt to those impacts although substantial challenges remain. Ongoing climate change will continue to result in a pressure to adapt, while socio-economic development could make it easier to do so. Countries’ effectiveness in fostering climate resilience will depend on the pace of …
Human contribution to the record-breaking June and July 2019 heatwaves in Western Europe
Two extreme heatwaves hit Western Europe in the summer of 2019, with historical records broken by more than a degree in many locations, and significant societal impacts, including excess mortality of several thousand people. The extent to which human influence has played a role in the occurrence of these events has been of large interest to scientists, media and decision makers. However, the outstanding nature of these events poses challenges for…
Projected changes in hot, dry and wet extreme events’ clusters in CMIP6 multi-model ensemble
Concurrent extreme events, i.e. multi-variate extremes, can be associated with strong impacts. Hence, an understanding of how such events are changing in a warming climate is helpful to avoid some associated climate change impacts and better prepare for them. In this article, we analyse the projected occurrence of hot, dry, and wet extreme events’ clusters in the multi-model ensemble of the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (…
The human imperative of stabilizing global climate change at 1.5°C
The need to stabilize global climate Climate change will be the greatest threat to humanity and global ecosystems in the coming years, and there is a pressing need to understand and communicate the impacts of warming, across the perspectives of the natural and social sciences. Hoegh-Guldberg et al. review the climate change–impact literature, expanding on the recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. They provide evidence of…
On the use of indices to study extreme precipitation on sub-daily and daily timescales
While there are obstacles to the exchange of long-term high temporal resolution precipitation data, there have been fewer barriers to the exchange of so-called 'indices'. These are derived from daily and sub-daily data and measure aspects of precipitation frequency, duration and intensity that could be used for the study of extremes. This paper outlines the history of the rationale and use of these indices, the types of indices that are frequentl…
Coupling between the terrestrial carbon and water cycles—a review
The terrestrial carbon and water cycles are strongly coupled. As atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration increases, climate and the coupled hydrologic cycle are modified, thus altering the terrestrial water cycle and the availability of soil moisture necessary for plants’ carbon dioxide uptake. Concomitantly, rising surface carbon dioxide concentrations also modify stomatal (small pores at the leaf surface) regulation as well as biomass, thus al…
Regional climate model projections underestimate future warming due to missing plant physiological CO 2 response
Many countries rely on regional climate model (RCM) projections to quantify the impacts of climate change and to design their adaptation plans accordingly. In several European regions, RCMs project a smaller temperature increase than global climate models (GCMs), which is hypothesised to be due to discrepant representations of topography, cloud processes, or aerosol forcing in RCMs and GCMs. Additionally, RCMs do generally not consider the vegeta…
Revisiting assessments of ecosystem drought recovery
The time taken for ecosystems to recover from drought (drought recovery time) is critically important for the ecosystem state. However, recent literature presents contradictory conclusions on this feature: one study concludes that drought recovery time in the tropics and high northern latitudes is shortest ( 12 months) in these regions. Here we explore the reasons for these contradictory results and revisit assessments of drought recovery time. W…
Intercomparison of daily precipitation persistence in multiple global observations and climate models
Daily precipitation persistence is affected by various atmospheric and land processes and provides complementary information to precipitation amount statistics for understanding the precipitation dynamics. In this study, daily precipitation persistence is assessed in an exhaustive ensemble of observation-based daily precipitation datasets and evaluated in global climate model (GCM) simulations for the period of 2001–2013. Daily precipitation time…
The concerns of the young protesters are justified
In March 2019, German-speaking scientists and scholars calling themselves Scientists for Future , published a statement in support of the youth protesters in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland (Fridays for Future, Klimastreik/Climate Strike) , verifying the scientific evidence that the youth protestors refer to. In this article, they provide the full text of the statement, including the list of supporting facts (in both English and German) as well…
Crop productivity changes in 1.5 °C and 2 °C worlds under climate sensitivity uncertainty
Following the adoption of the Paris Agreement, there has been an increasing interest in quantifying impacts at discrete levels of global mean temperature (GMT) increase such as 1.5 C and 2 C above pre-industrial levels. Consequences of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on agricultural productivity have direct and immediate relevance for human societies. Future crop yields will be affected by anthropogenic climate change as well as direct eff…
Evapotranspiration simulations in Isimip2a—Evaluation of spatio-temporal characteristics with a comprehensive ensemble of independent datasets
Actual land evapotranspiration (ET) is a key component of the global hydrological cycle and an essential variable determining the evolution of hydrological extreme events under different climate change scenarios. However, recently available ET products show persistent uncertainties that are impeding a precise attribution of human-induced climate change. Here, we aim at comparing a range of independent global monthly land ET estimates with histori…
Changes in climate extremes over West and Central Africa at 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming
In this study, we investigate changes in temperature and precipitation extremes over West and Central Africa (hereafter, WAF domain) as a function of global mean temperature with a focus on the implications of global warming of 1.5 C and 2 C according the Paris Agreement. We applied a scaling approach to capture changes in climate extremes with increase in global mean temperature in several subregions within the WAF domain: Western Sahel, Central…
Land–atmosphere coupling and climate change in Europe
Summer soil moisture regulated by precipitation frequency in China
Recent decline in the global land evapotranspiration trend due to limited moisture supply
Investigating soil moisture–climate interactions in a changing climate
Changes in Climate Extremes and their Impacts on the Natural Physical Environment
Chapter 3 of Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This chapter addresses changes in weather and climate events relevant to extreme impacts and disasters.
Summary for Policymakers
This Summary for Policymakers presents key findings from the Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX). The SREX approaches the topic by assessing the scientific literature on issues that range from the relationship between climate change and extreme weather and climate events ("climate extremes") to the implications of these events for society and sustainable development. The…
Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation
This Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report (IPCC-SREX) explores the challenge of understanding and managing the risks of climate extremes to advance climate change adaptation. Extreme weather and climate events, interacting with exposed and vulnerable human and natural systems, can lead to disasters. Changes in the frequency and severity of the physical events affect disaster risk, but so do the spatially diverse and temporally…
Climate extremes and the carbon cycle
Flood risk and climate change
A holistic perspective on changing rainfall-driven flood risk is provided for the late 20th and early 21st centuries. Economic losses from floods have greatly increased, principally driven by the expanding exposure of assets at risk. It has not been possible to attribute rain-generated peak streamflow trends to anthropogenic climate change over the past several decades. Projected increases in the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall, based o…
Todayʼs virtual water consumption and trade under future water scarcity
The populations of most nations consume products of both domestic and foreign origin, importing together with the products the water which is expended abroad for their production (termed 'virtual water'). Therefore, any investigation of the sustainability of present-day water consumption under future climate change needs to consider the effects of potentially reduced water availability both on domestic water resources and on the trades of virtual…
A few extreme events dominate global interannual variability in gross primary production
A few extreme events dominate global interannual variability in gross primary production, Jakob Zscheischler, Miguel D Mahecha, Jannis von Buttlar, Stefan Harmeling, Martin Jung, Anja Rammig, James T Randerson, Bernhard Schölkopf, Sonia I Seneviratne, Enrico Tomelleri, Sönke Zaehle, Markus Reichstein
Predicting above normal wildfire activity in southern Europe as a function of meteorological drought
Wildfires are a recurrent feature of ecosystems in southern Europe, regularly causing large ecological and socio-economic damages. For efficient management of this hazard, long lead time forecasts could be valuable tools. Using logistic regression, we show that the probability of above normal summer wildfire activity in the 1985-2010 time period can be forecasted as a function of meteorological drought with significant predictability (p <0.05) se…
Introduction of a simple-model-based land surface dataset for Europe
Land surface hydrology can play a crucial role during extreme events such as droughts, floods and even heat waves. We introduce in this study a new hydrological dataset for Europe that consists of soil moisture, runoff and evapotranspiration (ET). It is derived with a simple water balance model (SWBM) forced with precipitation, temperature and net radiation. The SWBM dataset extends over the period 1984–2013 with a daily time step and 0.5° × 0.5°…
The significance of land-atmosphere interactions in the Earth system-iLeaps achievements and perspectives
Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets
Anthropogenic climate change affects meteorological drought risk in Europe
Drought constitutes a significant natural hazard in Europe, impacting societies and ecosystems across the continent. Climate model simulations with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations project increased drought risk in southern Europe, and on the other hand decreased drought risk in the north. Observed changes in water balance components and drought indicators resemble the projected pattern. However, assessments of possible causes of the repo…
Did European temperatures in 1540 exceed present-day records
There is strong evidence that the year 1540 was exceptionally dry and warm in Central Europe. Here we infer 1540 summer temperatures from the number of dry days (NDDs) in spring (March–May) and summer (June–August) in 1540 derived from historical documentary evidence published elsewhere, and compare our estimates with present-day temperatures. We translate the NDD values into temperature distributions using a linear relationship between modeled t…
Is land surface processes representation a possible weak link in current Regional Climate Models
The representation of land surface processes and fluxes in climate models critically affects the simulation of near-surface climate over land. Here we present an evaluation of COSMO-CLM 2 , a model which couples the COSMO-CLM Regional Climate Model to the Community Land Model (CLM4.0). CLM4.0 provides a more detailed representation of land processes compared to the native land surface scheme in COSMO-CLM. We perform historical reanalysis-driven s…
Dependence of drivers affects risks associated with compound events
Compound extremely hot and dry summers become more frequent with higher CO 2 concentrations due to stronger interdependence.
Hydrological and biogeochemical constraints on terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks
The feedbacks between climate, atmospheric CO 2 concentration and the terrestrial carbon cycle are a major source of uncertainty in future climate projections with Earth systems models. Here, we use observation-based estimates of the interannual variations in evapotranspiration (ET), net biome productivity (NBP), as well as the present-day sensitivity of NBP to climate variations, to constrain globally the terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks as si…
Simulated changes in aridity from the last glacial maximum to 4xCO 2
Aridity is generally defined as the 'degree to which a climate lacks moisture to sustain life in terrestrial ecosystems'. Several recent studies using the 'aridity index' (the ratio of potential evaporation to precipitation), have concluded that aridity will increase with CO2 because of increasing temperature. However, the 'aridity index' is—counterintuitively—not a direct measure of aridity per se (when defined as above) and there is widespread …
Early warnings of hazardous thunderstorms over Lake Victoria
Weather extremes have harmful impacts on communities around Lake Victoria in East Africa. Every year, intense nighttime thunderstorms cause numerous boating accidents on the lake, resulting in thousands of deaths among fishermen. Operational storm warning systems are therefore crucial. Here we complement ongoing early warning efforts based on numerical weather prediction, by presenting a new satellite data-driven storm prediction system, the prot…
Crop productivity changes in 1.5 °C and 2 °C worlds under climate sensitivity uncertainty
Following the adoption of the Paris Agreement, there has been an increasing interest in quantifying impacts at discrete levels of global mean temperature (GMT) increase such as 1.5 C and 2 C above pre-industrial levels. Consequences of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on agricultural productivity have direct and immediate relevance for human societies. Future crop yields will be affected by anthropogenic climate change as well as direct eff…
Evapotranspiration simulations in Isimip2a—Evaluation of spatio-temporal characteristics with a comprehensive ensemble of independent datasets
Actual land evapotranspiration (ET) is a key component of the global hydrological cycle and an essential variable determining the evolution of hydrological extreme events under different climate change scenarios. However, recently available ET products show persistent uncertainties that are impeding a precise attribution of human-induced climate change. Here, we aim at comparing a range of independent global monthly land ET estimates with histori…
Changes in climate extremes over West and Central Africa at 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming
In this study, we investigate changes in temperature and precipitation extremes over West and Central Africa (hereafter, WAF domain) as a function of global mean temperature with a focus on the implications of global warming of 1.5 C and 2 C according the Paris Agreement. We applied a scaling approach to capture changes in climate extremes with increase in global mean temperature in several subregions within the WAF domain: Western Sahel, Central…
Environmental Science (45 works) · Climate change (37 works) · Climatology (31 works) · Geography (30 works) · Climate variability and models (26 works) · Ecology (22 works) · Meteorology (22 works) · Geology (16 works) · Atmospheric sciences (14 works) · Climate model (14 works)