E Neumayer
Biographic Data
| ID | 48071 |
|---|---|
| NAME | E Neumayer |
| GIVEN NAMES | E |
| FAMILY NAME | Neumayer |
| SIGNATURE | NEUMAYER E |
| AFFILIATIONS | London School of Economics and Political Science |
| ORCID | 0000-0003-2719-7563 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 115 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 2583 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 115 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1997 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2026 |
| H-INDEX | 26 |
The Credibility Crisis in Science
A novel perspective on scientific fraud—how undisclosed “tweaks” to research designs and model specifications fuel the credibility crisis in science. In The Credibility Crisis in Science, leading social scientists Thomas Plümper and Eric Neumayer argue that the most impactful fraud is crucially under-recognized. While data fabrication and manipulation are widely recognized as fraudulent, “tweaks”—the intentional selection of research designs and …
Protest against Covid-19 containment policies in European countries
Protests against coronavirus policies have occurred in all European countries. The intensity of protest varies strongly, however. We explain this variation by strategic choices that protest organizers make to maintain the protest movement. Specifically, we argue that protest organizers pay heed to the dynamics of the pandemic in their country: the number of protest events is higher when and where mortality rates are lower and containment policies…
Polarized Politics
Protest against containment policies in U.S. states is fueled by two drivers: the stringency of containment policies and the partisan control over the governorship and legislatures in each state. In our analysis of the period from March 2020 to March 2022, we find more protest events in states fully controlled by Democrats than in Republican controlled states both in a sample consisting of all states and a balanced sample in which we constrain ob…
The Politics of Covid-19 Containment Policies in europe
Does ‘Data fudging’ explain the autocratic advantage? Evidence from the gap between Official Covid-19 mortality and excess mortality
Governments can underreport Covid-19 mortality to make their performance appear more successful than it is. Autocracies are more likely to 'fudge' these data since many autocratic regimes restrict media freedom and thus can prevent domestic media from reporting evidence of undercounting deaths. Autocracies also enjoy greater leverage over reporting health authorities to either fudge data or adopt restrictive definitions of what constitutes Covid-…
Lockdown policies and the dynamics of the first wave of the Sars-CoV-2 pandemic in Europe
This paper follows European countries as they struggled through the first wave of the Sars-CoV-2 pandemic. We analyze when countries were confronted with the virus, how long it took until the number of new infections peaked and at what level of infections that peak was achieved via social distancing and lockdown policies. Most European countries were able to successfully end the first wave of the pandemic – defined as a two-week incidence rate sm…
Women’s economic rights in developing countries and the gender gap in migration to Germany
There is a large variation across countries of origin in the gender composition of migrants coming to Germany. We argue that women’s economic rights in developing countries of origin have three effects on their migration prospects to a place like Germany that is far away and difficult to reach. First, the lower are women’s economic rights the fewer women have access to and control over the resources needed to migrate to Germany. Second, the lower…
Economic legacy effects of armed conflict
The province of Aceh in Indonesia provides a promising case for studying the economic legacy effects of conflict given subnational district-level data on violence and gross domestic product. We demonstrate specific negative economic legacy effects of armed conflict despite a general peace dividend: whilst all districts in Aceh grow faster after conflict ends in 2005 than during the conflict, the districts that suffered relatively more from violen…
The strategy of protest against Covid‐19 containment policies in Germany
OBJECTIVES: The article analyzes the epidemiological and political logics of protest against containment policies in Germany. To maximize the mobilization potential, protest organizers organize more protest events when Covid-19 mortality rates are low, the stringency of containment policies is high, and in districts in which the vote share of mainstream parties is traditionally low. METHOD: Using a negative binomial model, we analyze the number o…
The logics of Covid‐19 travel restrictions between European countries
Objectives: The article analyzes the existence of bilateral travel restrictions between European countries during the second wave of the Sars-CoV-2 pandemic. The paper tests three sets of theoretically derived predictions, which follow epidemiological, economic, and political logics. Method: We analyze a sample of directed bilateral travel restrictions between 27 European countries: 27.26 = 702 country dyads over a period of 6 months during the s…
Human rights violations and the gender gap in asylum recognition rates
During the recent European refugee crisis, more than two million people applied for asylum in Germany. Female applicants stand a higher chance to gain protection than male applicants. Whilst small on average, this gender gap in asylum recognition rates varies strongly across countries of origin which has remained little noticed. We analyse the gender gap in asylum recognition rates for the 56 major countries of origin of refugees whose asylum cla…
Covid-19 does not stop at open borders
Infectious diseases generate spatial dependence or contagion not only between individuals but also between geographical units. New infections in one local district do not just depend on properties of the district, but also on the strength of social ties of its population with populations in other districts and their own degree of infectiousness. We show that SARS-CoV-2 infections during the first wave of the pandemic spread across district border…
The impact of the Indian Ocean tsunami on Aceh’s long-term economic growth
Environment and Trade
The effects of trade and trade liberalization on the environment are complex and myriad. One can analytically distinguish the main ones as scale, compositional effects, transport, static efficiency, dynamic efficiency, and governance effects. Some of these are likely to be predominantly positive (e.g., dynamic efficiency) or negative (e.g., transport), but the remainder are heavily context‐dependent such that trade and trade liberalization cannot…
Robustness Tests for Quantitative Research
The uncertainty that researchers face in specifying their estimation model threatens the validity of their inferences. In regression analyses of observational data, the 'true model' remains unknown, and researchers face a choice between plausible alternative specifications. Robustness testing allows researchers to explore the stability of their main estimates to plausible variations in model specifications. This highly accessible book presents th…
The double-edged sword of learning from disasters
Immigrant and Refugee Families
6.1 Defining IPV 6.2 IPV Among Immigrants and Refugees 6.3 Risk and Protective Factors 6.4 Responses to IPV 6.5 Barriers to Help Seeking 6.6 Future Directions 6.7 Case Study 6.8 Conclusion 6.9 References
Inequalities of Income and Inequalities of Longevity
Objectives. We examined the effects of market income inequality (income inequality before taxes and transfers) and income redistribution via taxes and transfers on inequality in longevity. Methods. We used life tables to compute Gini coefficients of longevity inequality for all individuals and for individuals who survived to at least 10 years of age. We regressed longevity inequality on market income inequality and income redistribution, and we c…
Spatial spill-overs from terrorism on tourism
W
In spatial econometrics,Wrefers to the matrix that weights the value of the spatially lagged variable of other units. As unimportant as it may appear,Wspecifies, or at least ought to specify, why and how other units of analysis affect the unit under observation. This article shows that theory must inform five crucial specification choices taken by researchers. Specifically, the connectivity variable employed inWmust capture the causal mechanism o…
Free-riding in alliances
We revisit the old and well-established theory of free-riding in military alliances. Existing empirical evidence infers free-riding from the larger military expenditures per gross domestic product (GDP) of countries of larger GDP. Yet, larger countries have broader military and geostrategic interests that result in larger defense burdens, thus creating an identification problem for existing tests of free-riding behavior. We therefore develop alte…
Competition for Export Markets and the Allocation of Foreign Aid
Terrorism and Counterterrorism
In this commentary, we make the case that the analysis of terrorism and counterterrorism must be based on an integrated theory that links both issues together. Terrorist groups’ ultimate goals must be distinguished from their strategic goals and the strategic logic by which they employ terror and select targets to further their ultimate goals. The strategic logic of terrorism is thus key to understanding patterns of terrorism and the counter-reac…
The “Peer-Effect” in Counterterrorist Policies
Existing accounts posit that defensively oriented counterterrorist policies create negative externalities and result in regulatory competition that induces governments to increasingly tighten their policies. We argue that rather than causing an unconditional global “race to the top,” spatial dependence in counterterrorist policies is limited to within groups of countries exposed to a similar level of threat from international terrorism. Countries…
Geographies of educational mobilities
A growing number of individuals are choosing to study abroad although, like other manifestations of globalisation, the sources and destinations of these migratory flows are highly uneven. Within the context of ongoing debates about the motives for overseas study, the reproduction of class advantage, and countries' competitive advantage for internationally mobile students, this paper seeks to improve understanding of these variations. We situate i…
Do International Human Rights Treaties Improve Respect for Human Rights
After the nonbinding Universal Declaration of Human Rights, many global and regional human rights treaties have been concluded. Critics argue that these are unlikely to have made any actual difference in reality. Others contend that international regimes can improve respect for human rights in state parties, particularly in more democratic countries or countries with a strong civil society devoted to human rights and with transnational links. The…
The Gendered Nature of Natural Disasters
Natural disasters do not affect people equally. In fact, a vulnerability approach to disasters would suggest that inequalities in exposure and sensitivity to risk as well as inequalities in access to resources, capabilities, and opportunities systematically disadvantage certain groups of people, rendering them more vulnerable to the impact of natural disasters. In this article we address the specific vulnerability of girls and women with respect …
Model specification in the analysis of spatial dependence
The recent surge in studies analysing spatial dependence in political science has gone hand‐in‐hand with increased attention paid to the choice of estimation technique. In comparison, specification choice has been relatively neglected, even though it leads to equally, if not more, serious inference problems. In this article four specification issues are analysed. It is argued that to avoid biased estimates of the spatial effects, researchers need…
The Unequal Burden of War
Most combatants in armed conflict are men, so naturally men are the major direct victims of military operations. Yet armed conflicts have important indirect negative consequences on agriculture, infrastructure, public health provision, and social order. These indirect consequences are often overlooked and underappreciated. They also affect women-arguably more so than men. This article provides the first rigorous analysis of the impact of armed co…
Asylum Destination Choice
This article examines what explains the relative attractiveness of West European countries as a destination for asylum seekers. Individuals coming to Western Europe in order to lodge an asylum application are modelled as utility maximizers who choose the destination country that offers the highest net benefit. This benefit is seen as a function of economic attractiveness, generosity of welfare provisions, deterrent policy measures, hostility towa…
Unequal access to foreign spaces
Nation‐states employ visa restrictions to manage the complex trade‐off between facilitating the entrance to their territory by passport holders from certain countries for economic and political reasons and deterring individuals from other countries for reasons of perceived security and immigration control. The resulting system is one of highly unequal access to foreign spaces, reinforcing existing inequalities. Trans‐national mobility is encourag…
Do bilateral investment treaties increase foreign direct investment to developing countries
Recessions lower (some) mortality rates
Bogus Refugees? The Determinants of Asylum Migration to Western Europe
Do Democracies Exhibit Stronger International Environmental Commitment? A Cross-country Analysis
This article tests the hypothesis that democracies exhibit stronger international environmental commitment than non-democracies, using multivariate econometric techniques. A number of proxy variables are used in lieu of environmental commitment, a non-observable variable. Strong evidence is found that democracies sign and ratify more multilateral environmental agreements, participate in more environmental intergovernmental organizations, comply b…
The Determinants of Aid Allocation by Regional Multilateral Development Banks and United Nations Agencies
This paper examines which factors can explain the allocation of aid by four regional development banks as well as three United Nations agencies. The results suggest the following: most donors examined also exhibit a bias apparent in bilateral aid allocation in favor of less populous countries. Some of them also share another bias of bilateral donors who give more aid to their former colonies. However, the three United Nations agencies contravene …
Are left-wing party strength and corporatism good for the environment? Evidence from panel analysis of air pollution in OECD countries
Spatial Effects in Dyadic Data
Political units often spatially depend in their policy choices on other units. This also holds in dyadic settings where, as in much of international relations research, analysis focuses on the interaction or relation between a pair or dyad of two political units. Yet, with few exceptions, social scientists have analyzed contagion in monadic datasets only, consisting of individual political units. This article categorizes all possible forms of spa…
Asylum Recognition Rates in Western Europe
Substantial variation in recognition rates for asylum claims from the same countries of origin subjects refugees to unfair and discriminatory treatment. This article demonstrates the extent of variation and lack of convergence over the period from 1980 to 1999 across Western European destination countries. Refugee interest groups also suspect that political and economic conditions in destination countries, as well as the number of past asylum cla…
The Impact of Political Violence on Tourism
The hypothesis that political violence deters tourism is mainly based on case study evidence and a few quantitative studies confined to a small sample of countries. Two estimation techniques—a fixed-effects panel estimator with contemporaneous effects only and a dynamic generalized method of moments estimator—are used to test the impact of various forms of political violence on tourism. Both models show strong evidence that human rights violation…
Geographies of educational mobilities
A growing number of individuals are choosing to study abroad although, like other manifestations of globalisation, the sources and destinations of these migratory flows are highly uneven. Within the context of ongoing debates about the motives for overseas study, the reproduction of class advantage, and countries' competitive advantage for internationally mobile students, this paper seeks to improve understanding of these variations. We situate i…
Good Policy Can Lower Violent Crime
This article provides empirical evidence that good political governance and good economic policies can lower homicide rates. Therefore, violent crime is not simply determined by modernization, population characteristics, and cultural factors. This result follows from rigorous econometric testing based on a cross-national panel of homicide data from up to 117 countries over the period 1980-97. Contrary to most existing studies, which have applied …
W
In spatial econometrics,Wrefers to the matrix that weights the value of the spatially lagged variable of other units. As unimportant as it may appear,Wspecifies, or at least ought to specify, why and how other units of analysis affect the unit under observation. This article shows that theory must inform five crucial specification choices taken by researchers. Specifically, the connectivity variable employed inWmust capture the causal mechanism o…
Globalization and the Right to Free Association and Collective Bargaining
Resource Wealth and the Risk of Civil War Onset
The existing literature identifies natural resource wealth as a major determinant of civil war. The dominant causal link is that resources provide finance and motive (the “looting rebels” model). Others see natural resources as causing “political Dutch disease,” which in turn weakens state capacity (the “state capacity” model). In the looting rebels model, resource wealth first increases, but then decreases the risk for civil war as very large we…
Conditional Spatial Policy Dependence
The authors discuss how scholars can bring theories of spatial policy dependence and empirical model specifications closer in line so that the empirical analysis actually tests the theoretical predictions. Comprehensive theories of spatial policy dependence typically suggest that the jurisdictions receiving spatial stimuli systematically differ in their exposure to such signals as a function of the intensity of their interaction with other jurisd…
Do Membership Benefits Buy Regulatory Compliance
Underlying several theories of European integration is the idea that countries' willingness to sign up to supranational rules is dependent on the expectation and/or realization of various benefits. In this paper, we explore whether such benefits also affect member states' implementation of these rules. Using econometric techniques, we estimate the influence of several measures of membership benefits on the annual number of legal infringements rec…
Do Human Rights Matter in Bilateral Aid Allocation? A Quantitative Analysis of 21 Donor Countries
Objective. To analyze the role of human rights in aid allocation of 21 donor countries. Methods. Econometric analysis is applied to a panel covering the period 1985 to 1997. Results. Respect for civil/political rights plays a statistically significant role for most donors at the aid eligibility stage. Personal integrity rights, on the other hand, have a positive impact on aid eligibility for few donors only. At the level stage, most donors fail t…
The friend of my enemy is my enemy
Terrorism is an instrument for groups that cannot achieve their political goals legally. One important strategic function of terrorism is to weaken the government – either directly by attacking representatives or supporters of the government or indirectly by causing a political response that is unpopular among the population. Often, however, political stability of the home government is buttressed by foreign powers. In this case, the terrorists c…
The “Peer-Effect” in Counterterrorist Policies
Existing accounts posit that defensively oriented counterterrorist policies create negative externalities and result in regulatory competition that induces governments to increasingly tighten their policies. We argue that rather than causing an unconditional global “race to the top,” spatial dependence in counterterrorist policies is limited to within groups of countries exposed to a similar level of threat from international terrorism. Countries…
Environmental economics in theory and practice
Preserving natural capital in a world of uncertainty and scarce financial resources
Natural capital should be preserved because it exhibits features that distinguish it from all other kinds of capital. The notorious prevalence of risk, uncertainty and ignorance makes it difficult, however, to state which parts of it should be preserved. Some forms of natural capital are more likely to be substitutable than others. Another difficult question is how, to what extent and for how large costs certain kinds of natural capital should be…
The Isew -- not an Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare
Developing countries in the WTO
A fundamental question to be decided at the November/December 1999 World Trade Organisation (WTO) ministerial meeting is whether to support or resist a new round of trade negotiations. The author argues that while many developing countries, and development NGOs, are right to feel that the earlier Uruguay round produced results skewed in favour of developed countries, there is nothing to be gained from resisting a new round: rather, developing cou…
In defence of historical accountability for greenhouse gas emissions
On the methodology of Isew, GPI and related measures
How Regime Theory and the Economic Theory of International Environmental Cooperation Can Learn from Each Other
Economic theorists of international environmental cooperation and regime theorists who focus on the environment ask the same two basic research questions: why does international environmental cooperation emerge in some cases, but not in others, and why is cooperation wide and deep in some cases, but not in others? Unfortunately, the two schools of thought do not collaborate much in their respective attempts to answer these and related questions. …
The human development index and sustainability — a constructive proposal
Improvement without Convergence
Is Good Governance Rewarded? A Cross-national Analysis of Debt Forgiveness
Do We Trust the Data? On the Validity and Reliability of Cross‐National Environmental Surveys
Objective. This article provides evidence on the validity and reliability of cross‐national environmental surveys, an aspect that has not found much attention so far. Methods. Validity can be checked in examining whether cross‐national differences in environmental attitudes are in accordance with theoretical hypotheses. For example, a study can claim some validity if concern about inadequate sanitation is strongly negatively correlated with the a…
Do Democracies Exhibit Stronger International Environmental Commitment? A Cross-country Analysis
This article tests the hypothesis that democracies exhibit stronger international environmental commitment than non-democracies, using multivariate econometric techniques. A number of proxy variables are used in lieu of environmental commitment, a non-observable variable. Strong evidence is found that democracies sign and ratify more multilateral environmental agreements, participate in more environmental intergovernmental organizations, comply b…
The Pattern of Aid Giving
Practically all donor countries that give aid claim to do so on the basis on the recipient's good governance, but do these claims have a real impact on the allocation of aid? Are democratic, human rights-respecting, countries with low levels of corruption and military expenditures actually likely to receive more aid than other countries?Using econo
What Factors Determine the Allocation of Aid by Arab Countries and Multilateral Agencies
This article provides a statistical analysis of the determinants of Arab aid allocation using Heckman's two-step estimator. It is found that poorer, Arab, Islamic and Sub-Saharan African countries are more likely to receive some positive amount of Arab aid (gate-keeping stage). The same is true for countries not maintaining diplomatic relations with Israel as well as those with voting patterns in the United Nations General Assembly similar to Sau…
Are left-wing party strength and corporatism good for the environment? Evidence from panel analysis of air pollution in OECD countries
Socioeconomic Factors and Suicide Rates at Large-unit Aggregate Levels
Can socioeconomic factors seemingly explain variation in suicide rates at large-unit aggregate levels only due to an ecological fallacy? This is what Kunce and Anderson (2002) suggest based on fixed-effects estimation of US state suicide rates, in which they find little evidence that socioeconomic factors matter. This paper demonstrates that this result does not hold true for other large-unit aggregate levels in an analysis of suicide at the cros…
Do Human Rights Matter in Bilateral Aid Allocation? A Quantitative Analysis of 21 Donor Countries
Objective. To analyze the role of human rights in aid allocation of 21 donor countries. Methods. Econometric analysis is applied to a panel covering the period 1985 to 1997. Results. Respect for civil/political rights plays a statistically significant role for most donors at the aid eligibility stage. Personal integrity rights, on the other hand, have a positive impact on aid eligibility for few donors only. At the level stage, most donors fail t…
Book Notes
Are Socioeconomic Factors Valid Determinants of Suicide? Controlling for National Cultures of Suicide with Fixed-Effects Estimation
National cultures of suicide have found renewed interest in the recent literature on variation in suicide rates. Fixed-effects estimation controls more elegantly and comprehensively for such cultures than other approaches used in the existing literature. This article's analysis employs a range of economic and social explanatory variables based on economic as well as Durkheimian sociological theory in fixed-effects and random-effects estimation of…
The Determinants of Aid Allocation by Regional Multilateral Development Banks and United Nations Agencies
This paper examines which factors can explain the allocation of aid by four regional development banks as well as three United Nations agencies. The results suggest the following: most donors examined also exhibit a bias apparent in bilateral aid allocation in favor of less populous countries. Some of them also share another bias of bilateral donors who give more aid to their former colonies. However, the three United Nations agencies contravene …
Good Policy Can Lower Violent Crime
This article provides empirical evidence that good political governance and good economic policies can lower homicide rates. Therefore, violent crime is not simply determined by modernization, population characteristics, and cultural factors. This result follows from rigorous econometric testing based on a cross-national panel of homicide data from up to 117 countries over the period 1980-97. Contrary to most existing studies, which have applied …
The environment, left-wing political orientation and ecological economics
The WTO and the Environment
This article argues that the WTO's past environmental record is much better than critics would have it. Its jurisprudence has become increasingly environmentally friendly and many charges against the dispute settlement process are based on misunderstandings. WTO rules have, so far at least, not deterred any multilateral environmental agreements. The lack of ambitious environmental protection measures is not the fault of the WTO, but the responsib…
Does the “Resource Curse” hold for Growth in Genuine Income as Well
Trade Openness, Foreign Direct Investment and Child Labor
Economics (101 works) · Political science (73 works) · Law (55 works) · Politics (43 works) · Development economics (41 works) · Law (37 works) · Business (30 works) · Economic growth (29 works) · Sociology (28 works) · International trade (27 works)