Joeri Rogelj

Biographic Data

ID6569581
NAMEJoeri Rogelj
GIVEN NAMESJoeri
FAMILY NAMERogelj
SIGNATUREROGELJ J
AFFILIATIONSInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
ORCID0000-0003-2056-9061
VERIFIEDYes
TOTAL WORKS66
TOTAL CITATIONS369
AUTHOR COUNT66
EDITOR COUNT0
FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR2010
LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR2026
H-INDEX2

  • Implications of overshoot for climate mitigation strategies

    Open AccessMassimo Tavoni, Nico Bauer et al.ARTICLENature Climate Change2026

  • A weighting framework to improve the use of emissions scenario ensembles of opportunity

    Open AccessHamish Beath, Chris Smith et al.ARTICLENature Climate Change2026

    Integrated assessment models produce large ensembles of socioeconomic scenarios that are used profusely in climate change research. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), non-governmental organizations or national climate committees often rely on ensemble statistics to identify mitigation strategies and set climate targets. A limitation of such evidence is the opportunistic nature of scenario ensembles: they are an unstructured, se…

  • Future-proofing interpretations of the Paris Agreement’s limit of well below 2 °C

    Open AccessRobin Lamboll, Joeri RogeljARTICLENature Climate Change2026

    The Paris Agreement’s ‘well below 2 °C’ target is often interpreted as holding warming below 2 °C with a probability in the 66–90% range. We argue that such interpretations are not future-proof as decreasing uncertainties with time will allow temperatures to approach 2 °C later in the century. We show how referring to median warming can resolve this issue and illustrate how past probabilistic target interpretations would translate to a median 1.6…

  • The challenge with climate-energy-economy models in constructing fair and equitable climate futures

    Open AccessΑλέξανδρος Νίκας, Jon Sampedro et al.ARTICLEFutures2026

    Climate change and policy are unevenly experienced across nations, social groups, households, sectors, and generations. Understanding how benefits and burdens of climate action can be equitably shared is therefore critical. While the cornerstone concept of ‘common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities’ is broadly accepted, the absence of consensus on equitable effort-sharing principles presents a challenge that permeates…

  • Tracing inclusivity at UNFCCC conferences through side events and interest group dynamics

    Open AccessJudy Jingwei Xie, Nora Alessandra Escher et al.ARTICLENature Climate Change2025

    Inclusivity and transparency are the foundations of procedural justice in climate governance. However, concerns persist around the influence of business interest groups at United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conferences of Parties (COPs). COPs have increased in size and complexity, obscuring agendas and organizational relationships. Here we analyse the discourse and networks of actors at COP side events from 2003 to 202…

  • An exploration and evaluation framework for climate change mitigation scenarios with varying feasibility and desirability

    Open AccessHamish Beath, Shivika Mittal et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2025

    Ensembles of climate change mitigation scenarios present users with a collection of strategies for limiting global warming. These strategies may differ in their associated feasibility challenges, mitigation co-impacts, and ultimately their relative societal desirability. Understanding these scenario characteristics is therefore crucial when scenarios are used to inform strategic decisions. One approach to enhance this understanding is to establis…

  • Sharing emissions and removals for meeting the Paris Agreement through a distributive and corrective justice lens

    Open AccessMingyu Li, Rui Wang et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2025

    Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is critical for achieving net-zero and net-negative CO 2 emissions that can halt and potentially reverse global warming, respectively. However, reliable CDR is still costly and comes with considerable technological and ecological uncertainties. Despite the centrality of equity in the Paris Agreement, no integrated framework exists to equitably allocate responsibilities for CDR and residual emissions among countries. H…

  • A framework to assess highest possible ambition in nationally determined contributions under Article 4 of the Paris Agreement

    Open AccessJulia Katharina Schönfeld, Joeri RogeljARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2025

    Collective progress towards meeting the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal (LTTG) remains insufficient, a shortfall to be addressed by new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The Agreement stipulates that countries’ NDCs will represent a progression and reflect their highest possible ambition (HPA). However, the vague conceptualisation of this HPA norm challenges its translation into practice, allowing states to reference ambiti…

  • Closing decent living gaps in energy and emissions scenarios

    Open AccessJarmo Kikstra, Vassilis Daioglou et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2025

    Social and environmental agendas are intricately connected and shape the international policy discourse. To support these discussions, we present a framework for interpreting global scenario outcomes on energy demand and supply-side transitions through the lens of societal well-being and minimum resource requirements. We develop and apply a new model called Decent living standards and the Environment in Scenarios considering Inequality and Resour…

  • Past socio-political transitions away from coal and gas show challenges and opportunities ahead

    Open AccessJudy Jingwei Xie, Elina Brutschin et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2025

    Transitioning away from fossil fuels presents substantial challenges, given the growing mismatch between pledges submitted to international climate negotiations and the mitigation strategies that limit warming to below 1.5 °C or 2 °C presented in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report. The scientific case for phasing out coal-fired electricity is clear, and many countries are progressing towards this. However, despi…

  • Feasibility of peak temperature targets in light of institutional constraints

    Open AccessChristoph Bertram, Elina Brutschin et al.ARTICLENature Climate Change2024

    Despite faster-than-expected progress in clean energy technology deployment, global annual CO 2 emissions have increased from 2020 to 2023. The feasibility of limiting warming to 1.5 °C is therefore questioned. Here we present a model intercomparison study that accounts for emissions trends until 2023 and compares cost-effective scenarios to alternative scenarios with institutional, geophysical and technological feasibility constraints and enable…

  • Entry points for assessing ‘fair shares’ in national mitigation contributions

    Open AccessSetu Pelz, Gaurav Ganti et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2024

    Fairness considerations have long been central to the international climate change mitigation discourse, generating numerous scientific and philosophical debates. Yet, there remains a pressing need for practical guidance on developing assertions of fairness in national mitigation contributions. The Paris Agreement mandates that subsequent nationally determined contributions (NDCs) submitted under Article 4 represent a progression compared to prev…

  • Detecting climate milestones on the path to climate stabilization

    Open AccessAndrew H MacDougall, Joeri Rogelj et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2024

    The era of anthropogenic climate change can be described by defined climate milestones. These milestones mark changes in the historic trajectory of change, and include peak greenhouse gas emissions, peak greenhouse gas concentration, deceleration of warming, net-zero emissions, and a transition to global cooling. However, given internal variability in the Earth system and measurement uncertainty, definitively saying that a milestone has passed re…

  • Assessing the size and uncertainty of remaining carbon budgets

    Open AccessRobin Lamboll, Zebedee Nicholls et al.ARTICLENature Climate Change2023

    The remaining carbon budget (RCB), the net amount of CO 2 humans can still emit without exceeding a chosen global warming limit, is often used to evaluate political action against the goals of the Paris Agreement. RCB estimates for 1.5 °C are small, and minor changes in their calculation can therefore result in large relative adjustments. Here we evaluate recent RCB assessments by the IPCC and present more recent data, calculation refinements and…

  • A multimodel analysis of post-Glasgow climate targets and feasibility challenges

    Open AccessDirk-Jan Van De Ven, Shivika Mittal et al.ARTICLENature Climate Change2023

  • Corporate Greenhouse Gas Emissions’ Data and the Urgent Need for a Science-Led Just Transition

    Open AccessTimo Busch, Charles H Cho et al.ARTICLEJournal of Business Ethics2023

  • Q&A with Dr. Joeri Rogelj

    Open AccessJoeri RogeljARTICLEOne Earth2023

  • Net zero targets in science and policy

    Open AccessJoeri RogeljARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2023

    Since the adoption of the 2015 Paris Agreement and the publication of the 2018 Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, net zero targets have become a central feature in climate policy. This Perspective looks back at the scientific foundations of this recent policy development, the current state of play, and next frontiers for research on this topic

  • The impact of policy and model uncertainties on emissions projections of the Paris Agreement pledges

    Open AccessM Den Elzen, Ioannis Dafnomilis et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2023

    Tracking progress towards the Paris Agreement climate goal requires understanding the 2030 emission levels implied by countries’ National Determined Contributions (NDCs). However, key uncertainties and assumptions impact greenhouse gas (GHG) emission projections implied by the NDCs. This study analyses this impact, both globally and for major emitting countries. We find that the assessed uncertainties markedly affect global GHG emission projectio…

  • Near-term transition and longer-term physical climate risks of greenhouse gas emissions pathways

    Open AccessAjay Gambhir, Mel George et al.ARTICLENature Climate Change2022

  • Agent-Based Modelling of Future Dairy and Plant-Based Milk Consumption for UK Climate Targets

    Open AccessMatthew Gibson, Joana Portugal‐Pereira et al.ARTICLEJournal of Artificial Societies…2022

    A reduction in the production and consumption of meat and dairy across much of the world is critical for climate change mitigation, the alleviation of ecological stress, and improved health. We update an agentbased model (ABM) of historic UK milk consumption and apply it to scenarios of dairy reduction and adoption of plant-based milk (PBM) out to . The updated model is comprised of a cognitive function, where agents perceive the physical, health…

  • Net-zero emissions targets are vague

    Open AccessJoeri Rogelj, Oliver Geden et al.ARTICLENature2021

  • Intergenerational inequities in exposure to climate extremes

    Open AccessWim Thiery, Stefan Lange et al.ARTICLEScience2021

    Young generations are severely threatened by climate change

  • Cost and attainability of meeting stringent climate targets without overshoot

    Open AccessKeywan Riahi, Christoph Bertram et al.ARTICLENature Climate Change2021

  • Emissions estimations should embed a precautionary principle

    Open AccessAndreas G F Hoepner, Joeri RogeljARTICLENature Climate Change2021