Simon F B Tett
Dados Biográficos
| ID | 6572458 |
|---|---|
| NOME | Simon F B Tett |
| PRENOMES | Simon F B |
| SOBRENOME | Tett |
| ASSINATURA | TETT S F B |
| AFILIAÇÕES | University of Edinburgh |
| ORCID | 0000-0001-7526-560X |
| VERIFICADO | Sim |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 17 |
| TOTAL DE CITAÇÕES | 22 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 17 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 0 |
| PRIMEIRO ANO DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 1998 |
| ANO MAIS RECENTE DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 2025 |
| ÍNDICE H | 1 |
Recent amplification of the Siberian High decadal variability significantly influenced by anthropogenic aerosols in CanESM5
The Siberian High (SibH), a prominent feature of the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, exhibited enhanced interdecadal variability since 1970, characterized by a sharp decline from 1970 to 1990 followed by a steep recovery from 1990 to 2010. The factors underpinning these variations are unclear. Using the CanESM5 large ensemble, including the single forcing simulations, we find that anthropogenic aerosols played an important role in in…
Attribution of the 2023 extreme spring hot drought event in Southwest China
During March to May 2023, Southwestern China experienced a prolonged hot and dry spring. This study investigates the role of anthropogenic climate change (ACC) in this extreme event and its impact on crop yields, using a 525-member ensemble from the HadGEM3 atmospheric model and the WOFOST agricultural model, respectively. Observational results indicate that the area-averaged surface air temperature anomaly (TAS) was 1.4 °C higher than usual, and…
Role of multi-decadal variability of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation on Northern Hemisphere climate
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) plays a leading role in modulating wintertime climate over the North Atlantic and the surrounding continents of Europe and North America. Here we show that the observed evolution of the NAO displays larger multi-decadal variability than that simulated by nearly all CMIP6 models. To investigate the role of the NAO as a pacemaker of multi-decadal climate variability, we analyse simulations that are constrained t…
Changes in regional wet heatwave in Eurasia during summer (1979–2017)
Wet heatwaves can have more impact on human health than hot dry heatwaves. However, changes in these have received little scientific attention. Using the ECMWF Reanalysis v5 reanalysis dataset, wet-bulb temperatures ( T w ) were used to investigate the spatial-temporal variation of wet heatwaves in Eurasia for 1979–2017. Wet heatwaves were defined as three day or longer periods when T w was above the 90th percentile of the summer distribution and…
Quantifying the contribution of an individual to making extreme weather events more likely
Probabilistic event attribution aims to quantify the role of anthropogenic climate change in altering the intensity or probability of extreme climate and weather events. It was originally conceived to calculate the costs associated with any increased likelihood of the meteorological event in question. However, only recently have such studies attempted to divide liability between polluting nations and ascribe a cost. Recent protests indicate a per…
Detectable anthropogenic changes in daily-scale circulations driving summer rainfall shifts over eastern China
Wetting in the south while drying in the north during the last few decades constitutes the well-known ‘southern flood–northern drought’ (SFND) precipitation pattern over eastern China. The fingerprint of anthropogenic influence on this dipole pattern of regional precipitation trends has not been confirmed, especially for forced changes in relevant dynamics at the synoptic scale. Using a process-based approach involving model experiments both with…
Learning from the 2018 heatwave in the context of climate change
To understand whether high temperatures and temperature extremes are important for climate change adaptation in Scotland, we place the 2018 heatwave in the context of past, present, and future climate, and provide a rapid but comprehensive impact analysis. The observed hottest day (d), 5 d, and 30 d period of 2018 and the 5 d period with the warmest nights had return periods of 5–15 years for 1950–2018. The warmest night and the maximum 30 d aver…
Projected near term changes in the East Asian summer monsoon and its uncertainty
Changes in the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) during the mid-21st century relative to present day are simulated in two related models GOML1 and GOML2. Both models are the atmospheric components of two state-of-the-art climate models coupled to a multi-level mixed-layer ocean model, following the RCP 4.5 scenario. Both show that the EASM is enhanced due to the amplified land-sea thermal contrast. Summer precipitation over northern China is proje…
Disentangling the causes of the 1816 European year without a summer
The European summer of 1816 has often been referred to as a ‘year without a summer’ due to anomalously cold conditions and unusual wetness, which led to widespread famines and agricultural failures. The cause has often been assumed to be the eruption of Mount Tambora in April 1815, however this link has not, until now, been proven. Here we apply state-of-the-art event attribution methods to quantify the contribution by the eruption and random wea…
Storylines
As climate change research becomes increasingly applied, the need for actionable information is growing rapidly. A key aspect of this requirement is the representation of uncertainties. The conventional approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change is probabilistic, based on ensembles of climate model simulations. In the face of deep uncertainties, the known limitations of this approach are becoming increasingly appar…
Attributing human influence on the July 2017 Chinese heatwave
On21–25 July 2017 a record-breaking heatwave occurred in Central Eastern China, affecting nearly half of the national population and causing severe impacts on public health, agriculture and infrastructure. Here, we compare attribution results from twoUKMet Office Hadley Centre models, HadGEM3-GA6 and weather@home (HadAM3P driving 50 kmHadRM3P). Within HadGEM3-GA6 July 2017-like heatwaves were unequaled in the ensemble representing the world witho…
Attribution of extreme precipitation in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River during May 2016
May 2016 was the third wettest May on record since 1961 over central eastern China based on station observations, with total monthly rainfall 40% more than the climatological mean for 1961–2013. Accompanying disasters such as waterlogging, landslides and debris flow struck part of the lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Causal influence of anthropogenic forcings on this event is investigated using the newly updated Met Office Hadley Centre system…
Have human activities changed the frequencies of absolute extreme temperatures in eastern China
Extreme temperatures affect populous regions, like eastern China, causing substantial socio-economic losses. It is beneficial to explore whether the frequencies of absolute or threshold-based extreme temperatures have been changed by human activities, such as anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). In this study, we compared observed and multi-model-simulated changes in the frequencies of summer days, tropical nights, icy days and fro…
Summer heat waves over Eastern China
Recent trends in summer heat waves (HW) over Central-Eastern China and their atmospheric drivers are investigated using the ERA Interim re-analysis. A composite analysis shows that these events are preceded by an increase in 500 hPa geopotential height. Consequently, a subsidence anomaly develops over the region and surface solar radiation increases. An increase in the northward moisture transport from the tropical region is also found to increas…
Evaluation of mechanisms of hot and cold days in climate models over Central Europe
Changes in intensity, frequency, and location of temperature extreme events are a focus for many studies that often rely on simulations from climate models to assess changes in temperature extremes. Given the use of climate models for attributing such events to human and natural influences and for projecting future changes, an assessment of the capability of climate models to properly simulate the mechanisms associated with temperature extreme ev…
Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes
The historical surface temperature data set HadCRUT provides a record of surface temperature trends and variability since 1850. A new version of this data set, HadCRUT3, has been produced, benefiting from recent improvements to the sea surface temperature data set which forms its marine component, and from improvements to the station records which provide the land data. A comprehensive set of uncertainty estimates has been derived to accompany th…
High-resolution palaeoclimatic records for the last millennium
Palaeoclimatology provides our only means of assessing climatic variations before the beginning of instrumental records. The various proxy variables used, however, have a number of limitations which must be adequately addressed and understood. Besides their obvious spatial and seasonal limitations, different proxies are also potentially limited in their ability to represent climatic variations over a range of different timescales. Simple correlat…
High-resolution palaeoclimatic records for the last millennium
Palaeoclimatology provides our only means of assessing climatic variations before the beginning of instrumental records. The various proxy variables used, however, have a number of limitations which must be adequately addressed and understood. Besides their obvious spatial and seasonal limitations, different proxies are also potentially limited in their ability to represent climatic variations over a range of different timescales. Simple correlat…
High-resolution palaeoclimatic records for the last millennium
Palaeoclimatology provides our only means of assessing climatic variations before the beginning of instrumental records. The various proxy variables used, however, have a number of limitations which must be adequately addressed and understood. Besides their obvious spatial and seasonal limitations, different proxies are also potentially limited in their ability to represent climatic variations over a range of different timescales. Simple correlat…
Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes
The historical surface temperature data set HadCRUT provides a record of surface temperature trends and variability since 1850. A new version of this data set, HadCRUT3, has been produced, benefiting from recent improvements to the sea surface temperature data set which forms its marine component, and from improvements to the station records which provide the land data. A comprehensive set of uncertainty estimates has been derived to accompany th…
Evaluation of mechanisms of hot and cold days in climate models over Central Europe
Changes in intensity, frequency, and location of temperature extreme events are a focus for many studies that often rely on simulations from climate models to assess changes in temperature extremes. Given the use of climate models for attributing such events to human and natural influences and for projecting future changes, an assessment of the capability of climate models to properly simulate the mechanisms associated with temperature extreme ev…
Attribution of extreme precipitation in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River during May 2016
May 2016 was the third wettest May on record since 1961 over central eastern China based on station observations, with total monthly rainfall 40% more than the climatological mean for 1961–2013. Accompanying disasters such as waterlogging, landslides and debris flow struck part of the lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Causal influence of anthropogenic forcings on this event is investigated using the newly updated Met Office Hadley Centre system…
Have human activities changed the frequencies of absolute extreme temperatures in eastern China
Extreme temperatures affect populous regions, like eastern China, causing substantial socio-economic losses. It is beneficial to explore whether the frequencies of absolute or threshold-based extreme temperatures have been changed by human activities, such as anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). In this study, we compared observed and multi-model-simulated changes in the frequencies of summer days, tropical nights, icy days and fro…
Summer heat waves over Eastern China
Recent trends in summer heat waves (HW) over Central-Eastern China and their atmospheric drivers are investigated using the ERA Interim re-analysis. A composite analysis shows that these events are preceded by an increase in 500 hPa geopotential height. Consequently, a subsidence anomaly develops over the region and surface solar radiation increases. An increase in the northward moisture transport from the tropical region is also found to increas…
Storylines
As climate change research becomes increasingly applied, the need for actionable information is growing rapidly. A key aspect of this requirement is the representation of uncertainties. The conventional approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change is probabilistic, based on ensembles of climate model simulations. In the face of deep uncertainties, the known limitations of this approach are becoming increasingly appar…
Attributing human influence on the July 2017 Chinese heatwave
On21–25 July 2017 a record-breaking heatwave occurred in Central Eastern China, affecting nearly half of the national population and causing severe impacts on public health, agriculture and infrastructure. Here, we compare attribution results from twoUKMet Office Hadley Centre models, HadGEM3-GA6 and weather@home (HadAM3P driving 50 kmHadRM3P). Within HadGEM3-GA6 July 2017-like heatwaves were unequaled in the ensemble representing the world witho…
Projected near term changes in the East Asian summer monsoon and its uncertainty
Changes in the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) during the mid-21st century relative to present day are simulated in two related models GOML1 and GOML2. Both models are the atmospheric components of two state-of-the-art climate models coupled to a multi-level mixed-layer ocean model, following the RCP 4.5 scenario. Both show that the EASM is enhanced due to the amplified land-sea thermal contrast. Summer precipitation over northern China is proje…
Disentangling the causes of the 1816 European year without a summer
The European summer of 1816 has often been referred to as a ‘year without a summer’ due to anomalously cold conditions and unusual wetness, which led to widespread famines and agricultural failures. The cause has often been assumed to be the eruption of Mount Tambora in April 1815, however this link has not, until now, been proven. Here we apply state-of-the-art event attribution methods to quantify the contribution by the eruption and random wea…
Learning from the 2018 heatwave in the context of climate change
To understand whether high temperatures and temperature extremes are important for climate change adaptation in Scotland, we place the 2018 heatwave in the context of past, present, and future climate, and provide a rapid but comprehensive impact analysis. The observed hottest day (d), 5 d, and 30 d period of 2018 and the 5 d period with the warmest nights had return periods of 5–15 years for 1950–2018. The warmest night and the maximum 30 d aver…
Changes in regional wet heatwave in Eurasia during summer (1979–2017)
Wet heatwaves can have more impact on human health than hot dry heatwaves. However, changes in these have received little scientific attention. Using the ECMWF Reanalysis v5 reanalysis dataset, wet-bulb temperatures ( T w ) were used to investigate the spatial-temporal variation of wet heatwaves in Eurasia for 1979–2017. Wet heatwaves were defined as three day or longer periods when T w was above the 90th percentile of the summer distribution and…
Quantifying the contribution of an individual to making extreme weather events more likely
Probabilistic event attribution aims to quantify the role of anthropogenic climate change in altering the intensity or probability of extreme climate and weather events. It was originally conceived to calculate the costs associated with any increased likelihood of the meteorological event in question. However, only recently have such studies attempted to divide liability between polluting nations and ascribe a cost. Recent protests indicate a per…
Detectable anthropogenic changes in daily-scale circulations driving summer rainfall shifts over eastern China
Wetting in the south while drying in the north during the last few decades constitutes the well-known ‘southern flood–northern drought’ (SFND) precipitation pattern over eastern China. The fingerprint of anthropogenic influence on this dipole pattern of regional precipitation trends has not been confirmed, especially for forced changes in relevant dynamics at the synoptic scale. Using a process-based approach involving model experiments both with…
Role of multi-decadal variability of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation on Northern Hemisphere climate
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) plays a leading role in modulating wintertime climate over the North Atlantic and the surrounding continents of Europe and North America. Here we show that the observed evolution of the NAO displays larger multi-decadal variability than that simulated by nearly all CMIP6 models. To investigate the role of the NAO as a pacemaker of multi-decadal climate variability, we analyse simulations that are constrained t…
Recent amplification of the Siberian High decadal variability significantly influenced by anthropogenic aerosols in CanESM5
The Siberian High (SibH), a prominent feature of the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, exhibited enhanced interdecadal variability since 1970, characterized by a sharp decline from 1970 to 1990 followed by a steep recovery from 1990 to 2010. The factors underpinning these variations are unclear. Using the CanESM5 large ensemble, including the single forcing simulations, we find that anthropogenic aerosols played an important role in in…
Attribution of the 2023 extreme spring hot drought event in Southwest China
During March to May 2023, Southwestern China experienced a prolonged hot and dry spring. This study investigates the role of anthropogenic climate change (ACC) in this extreme event and its impact on crop yields, using a 525-member ensemble from the HadGEM3 atmospheric model and the WOFOST agricultural model, respectively. Observational results indicate that the area-averaged surface air temperature anomaly (TAS) was 1.4 °C higher than usual, and…
Geography (17 obras) · Environmental Science (16 obras) · Climate variability and models (15 obras) · Climatology (15 obras) · Geology (14 obras) · Climate change (13 obras) · Meteorology (11 obras) · Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations (9 obras) · Oceanography (8 obras) · Atmospheric sciences (7 obras)