Francis W Zwiers
Biographic Data
| ID | 6718713 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Francis W Zwiers |
| GIVEN NAMES | Francis W |
| FAMILY NAME | Zwiers |
| SIGNATURE | ZWIERS F W |
| AFFILIATIONS | Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-8375-5147 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 13 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 36 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 13 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2010 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2016 |
| H-INDEX | 3 |
Attribution of extreme weather and climate‐related events
Extreme weather and climate‐related events occur in a particular place, by definition, infrequently. It is therefore challenging to detect systematic changes in their occurrence given the relative shortness of observational records. However, there is a clear interest from outside the climate science community in the extent to which recent damaging extreme events can be linked to human‐induced climate change or natural climate variability. Event a…
Historically hottest summers projected to be the norm for more than half of the world’s population within 20 years
We project that within the next two decades, half of the world’s population will regularly (every second summer on average) experience regional summer mean temperatures that exceed those of the historically hottest summer, even under the moderate RCP4.5 emissions pathway. This frequency threshold for hot temperatures over land, which have adverse effects on human health, society and economy, might be broached in little more than a decade under th…
Observed and simulated temperature extremes during the recent warming hiatus
The discrepancy between recent observed and simulated trends in global mean surface temperature has provoked a debate about possible causes and implications for future climate change projections. However, little has been said in this discussion about observed and simulated trends in global temperature extremes. Here we assess trend patterns in temperature extremes and evaluate the consistency between observed and simulated temperature extremes ov…
Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble
This study provides an overview of projected changes in climate extremes indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The temperature‐ and precipitation‐based indices are computed with a consistent methodology for climate change simulations using different emission scenarios in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) and Phase 5 (CMIP5) multimodel ensembles. We analyze changes in the indic…
Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble
This paper provides a first overview of the performance of state‐of‐the‐art global climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in simulating climate extremes indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI), and compares it to that in the previous model generation (CMIP3). For the first time, the indices based on daily temperature and precipitation are calculated wit…
Changes in Climate Extremes and their Impacts on the Natural Physical Environment
Chapter 3 of Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This chapter addresses changes in weather and climate events relevant to extreme impacts and disasters.
Pest outbreak distribution and forest management impacts in a changing climate in British Columbia
Using an ensemble of downscaled climate model projections to assess impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of spruce and Douglas-fir forests in British Columbia
Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes
Patterns of change
Attributing observed climate change to causes is challenging. This letter communicates the physical arguments used in attribution, and the statistical methods applied to explore to what extent different possible causes can be used to explain the recent climate records. The methods use fingerprints of climate change that are identified on the basis of the physics governing our climate system, and through the use of climate model experiments. These…
Use of models in detection and attribution of climate change
Most detection and attribution studies use climate models to determine both the expected ‘fingerprint’ of climate change and the uncertainty in the estimated magnitude of this fingerprint in observations, given the climate variability. This review discusses the role of models in detection and attribution, the associated uncertainties, and the robustness of results. Studies that use observations only make substantial assumptions to separate the co…
Indices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data
Indices for climate variability and extremes have been used for a long time, often by assessing days with temperature or precipitation observations above or below specific physically‐based thresholds. While these indices provided insight into local conditions, few physically based thresholds have relevance in all parts of the world. Therefore, indices of extremes evolved over time and now often focus on relative thresholds that describe features …
Detection and attribution of climate change
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth assessment report, published in 2007 came to a more confident assessment of the causes of global temperature change than previous reports and concluded that ‘it is likely that there has been significant anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years averaged over each continent except Antarctica.’ Since then, warming over Antarctica has also been attributed to human influence, and further evidenc…
Indices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data
Indices for climate variability and extremes have been used for a long time, often by assessing days with temperature or precipitation observations above or below specific physically‐based thresholds. While these indices provided insight into local conditions, few physically based thresholds have relevance in all parts of the world. Therefore, indices of extremes evolved over time and now often focus on relative thresholds that describe features …
Detection and attribution of climate change
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth assessment report, published in 2007 came to a more confident assessment of the causes of global temperature change than previous reports and concluded that ‘it is likely that there has been significant anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years averaged over each continent except Antarctica.’ Since then, warming over Antarctica has also been attributed to human influence, and further evidenc…
Use of models in detection and attribution of climate change
Most detection and attribution studies use climate models to determine both the expected ‘fingerprint’ of climate change and the uncertainty in the estimated magnitude of this fingerprint in observations, given the climate variability. This review discusses the role of models in detection and attribution, the associated uncertainties, and the robustness of results. Studies that use observations only make substantial assumptions to separate the co…
Pest outbreak distribution and forest management impacts in a changing climate in British Columbia
Using an ensemble of downscaled climate model projections to assess impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of spruce and Douglas-fir forests in British Columbia
Detection and attribution of climate change
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth assessment report, published in 2007 came to a more confident assessment of the causes of global temperature change than previous reports and concluded that ‘it is likely that there has been significant anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years averaged over each continent except Antarctica.’ Since then, warming over Antarctica has also been attributed to human influence, and further evidenc…
Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes
Patterns of change
Attributing observed climate change to causes is challenging. This letter communicates the physical arguments used in attribution, and the statistical methods applied to explore to what extent different possible causes can be used to explain the recent climate records. The methods use fingerprints of climate change that are identified on the basis of the physics governing our climate system, and through the use of climate model experiments. These…
Use of models in detection and attribution of climate change
Most detection and attribution studies use climate models to determine both the expected ‘fingerprint’ of climate change and the uncertainty in the estimated magnitude of this fingerprint in observations, given the climate variability. This review discusses the role of models in detection and attribution, the associated uncertainties, and the robustness of results. Studies that use observations only make substantial assumptions to separate the co…
Indices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data
Indices for climate variability and extremes have been used for a long time, often by assessing days with temperature or precipitation observations above or below specific physically‐based thresholds. While these indices provided insight into local conditions, few physically based thresholds have relevance in all parts of the world. Therefore, indices of extremes evolved over time and now often focus on relative thresholds that describe features …
Changes in Climate Extremes and their Impacts on the Natural Physical Environment
Chapter 3 of Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This chapter addresses changes in weather and climate events relevant to extreme impacts and disasters.
Pest outbreak distribution and forest management impacts in a changing climate in British Columbia
Using an ensemble of downscaled climate model projections to assess impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of spruce and Douglas-fir forests in British Columbia
Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble
This study provides an overview of projected changes in climate extremes indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The temperature‐ and precipitation‐based indices are computed with a consistent methodology for climate change simulations using different emission scenarios in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) and Phase 5 (CMIP5) multimodel ensembles. We analyze changes in the indic…
Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble
This paper provides a first overview of the performance of state‐of‐the‐art global climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in simulating climate extremes indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI), and compares it to that in the previous model generation (CMIP3). For the first time, the indices based on daily temperature and precipitation are calculated wit…
Observed and simulated temperature extremes during the recent warming hiatus
The discrepancy between recent observed and simulated trends in global mean surface temperature has provoked a debate about possible causes and implications for future climate change projections. However, little has been said in this discussion about observed and simulated trends in global temperature extremes. Here we assess trend patterns in temperature extremes and evaluate the consistency between observed and simulated temperature extremes ov…
Attribution of extreme weather and climate‐related events
Extreme weather and climate‐related events occur in a particular place, by definition, infrequently. It is therefore challenging to detect systematic changes in their occurrence given the relative shortness of observational records. However, there is a clear interest from outside the climate science community in the extent to which recent damaging extreme events can be linked to human‐induced climate change or natural climate variability. Event a…
Historically hottest summers projected to be the norm for more than half of the world’s population within 20 years
We project that within the next two decades, half of the world’s population will regularly (every second summer on average) experience regional summer mean temperatures that exceed those of the historically hottest summer, even under the moderate RCP4.5 emissions pathway. This frequency threshold for hot temperatures over land, which have adverse effects on human health, society and economy, might be broached in little more than a decade under th…
Environmental Science (13 works) · Climate change (12 works) · Climatology (12 works) · Climate variability and models (11 works) · Geography (11 works) · Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations (9 works) · Climate model (7 works) · Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics (6 works) · Geology (5 works) · Climate extremes (4 works)