Joanne Mueller
Biographic Data
| ID | 91691 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Joanne Mueller |
| GIVEN NAMES | Joanne |
| FAMILY NAME | Mueller |
| SIGNATURE | MUELLER J |
| AFFILIATIONS | University of Rochester |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-7119-9227 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 64 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 1209 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 65 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1966 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2025 |
| H-INDEX | 13 |
Is the decline of war a delusion? An exchange between researchers following the publication of Azar Gat’s article on the subject
Scénario catastrophe
Alors que les problèmes majeurs qui ont tourmenté le monde au cours du dernier demi-siècle ont été résolus, la recherche de sujets d’inquiétude s’est poursuivie sans relâche. L’idée s’est répandue que les affaires internationales sont devenues, d’une manière ou d’une autre, particulièrement tumultueuses, instables et complexes. Pour parvenir à une telle conclusion, cinq techniques ont été appliquées : le passé a été simplifié, un biais eurocentri…
Response to Zachary C. Shirkey’s Review of The Stupidity of War
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Terrorism and Bathtubs
The likelihood that anyone outside a war zone will be killed by an Islamist extremist terrorist is extremely small. In the United States, for example, some six people have perished each year since 9/11 at the hands of such terrorists—vastly smaller than the number of people who die in bathtub drownings. Some argue, however, that the incidence of terrorist destruction is low because counterterrorism measures are so effective. They also contend tha…
The gaits of marsupials and the evolution of diagonal‐sequence walking in primates
OBJECTIVES: Documenting the variety of quadrupedal walking gaits in a variety of marsupials (arboreal vs. terrestrial, with and without grasping hind feet), to aid in developing and refining a general theory of gait evolution in primates. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Video records of koalas, ringtail possums, tree kangaroos, sugar gliders, squirrel gliders, wombats, numbats, quolls, a thylacine, and an opossum walking on a variety of substrates were ma…
The curse of the Black Swan
When unexpected and emotion-engaging events become Black Swans and carry an 'extreme impact,' this derives not so much those qualities or from their intrinsic size or importance as from reaction, or overreaction, they generate; but one that is often as extreme and unpredictable as the event itself. Most consequential development in human history, however, stems not from such events, but from changes in thinking and behavior that are gradual and o…
Terrorism, counterterrorism, and the Internet
This article assesses the cases that have come to light since 9/11 of Islamist extremist terrorism, whether based in the United States or abroad, in which the United States itself has been, or apparently has been, targeted. Information from them is used to evaluate how the Internet (including various forms of electronic communication) has affected several aspects of the terrorism enterprise in the United States: radicalization, communication, org…
Intermediality in the Age of Global Media Networks
Terrorism and counterterrorism in the US
Officials serving the public are tasked at the most fundamental level to spend funds in a manner that most effectively and efficiently keeps people safe. To do otherwise is irresponsible and, because human lives are at stake, immoral. In the case of counterterrorism policy-making, it is important to evaluate the degree to which any gains in security afforded by counterterrorism measures have been great enough to justify their cost. Risk analysis …
Evaluating Counterterrorism Spending
In this article, we present a simple back-of-the-envelope approach for evaluating whether counterterrorism security measures reduce risk sufficiently to justify their costs. The approach uses only four variables: the consequences of a successful attack, the likelihood of a successful attack, the degree to which the security measure reduces risk, and the cost of the security measure. After measuring the cost of a counterterrorism measure, we explo…
Aviation Security, Risk Assessment, and Risk Aversion for Public Decisionmaking
This paper estimates risk reductions for each layer of security designed to prevent commercial passenger airliners from being commandeered by terrorists, kept under control for some time, and then crashed into specific targets. Probabilistic methods are used to characterize the uncertainty of rates of deterrence, detection, and disruption, as well as losses. Since homeland security decisionmakers tend to be risk-averse because of the catastrophic…
The Terrorism Delusion
The reaction of Americans to the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, has been massively disproportionate to the actual threat posed by al-Qaida either as an international menace or as an inspiration or model for homegrown amateurs. An examination of the activities of international and domestic terrorist “adversaries” reveals that exaggerations and distortions of the threat have inspired a determined and expensive quest to ferret out, and eve…
Terror, Security, and Money
In seeking to evaluate the efficacy of post-9/11 homeland security expenses—which have risen by more than a trillion dollars, not including war costs—the common query has been, "Are we safer?" This, however, is the wrong question. Of course we are "safer"—the posting of a single security guard at one building's entrance enhances safety. The correct question is, "Are any gains in security worth the funds expended?" This book applies risk and cost-…
Capitalism, Peace, and the Historical Movement of Ideas
A logical and causal exploration of the growing acceptance of capitalism and peace, or war aversion, is part of what Robert Dahl has called “the historical movement of ideas.” Although war aversion and the acceptance of free-market capitalism have undergone parallel and substantially overlapping historical trajectories, support for capitalism does not on its own logically or necessarily imply war aversion or support for peace. Not only must capit…
Assessing Measures Designed to Protect the Homeland
Some general parameters are proposed for evaluating homeland security measures that seek to make potential targets notably less vulnerable to terrorist attack, and these are then applied to specific policy considerations. Since the number of targets is essentially unlimited, since the probability that any given target will be attacked is near zero, since the number and competence of terrorists is limited, since target‐selection is effectively a n…
Evidence-based gender findings for children affected by HIV and Aids – a systematic overview
This review (under the International Joint Learning Initiative on Children and AIDS) provides a detailed evidence analysis of gender, children and AIDS. Six systematic reviews provide the most up to date evidence base on research surrounding children and HIV on key topics of treatment resistance and adherence, schooling, nutrition, cognitive development and orphaning and bereavement. Traditional systematic review techniques were used to identify …
Examining ways in which contact opportunities associated with transfers might help identify vulnerable households and link them with social welfare services
Advocacy brief for research institutes, universities and donors. Social welfare integration and cash transfers
There is a good evidence base confirming that social protection measures affect child outcomes. Cash transfer schemes, conditional or unconditional have a sound evaluation base with systematic positive child outcomes. Social welfare issues are not routinely incorporated into cash transfer schemes in terms of input or outcome. This advocacy brief summarises current findings on social welfare parameters embedded into the cash transfer evidence base…
War Has Almost Ceased to Exist
Journal Article War Has Almost Ceased to Exist: An Assessment Get access John Mueller John Mueller JOHN MUELLER is a professor of political science at Ohio State University. His most recent books are The Remnants of War, Overblown, and the forthcoming Atomic Obsession: Nuclear Alarmism from Hiroshima to Al Qaeda. Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Political Science Quarterly, Volume 124, Issue 2, Summer 2009,…
A systematic review on the meaning of the concept ‘Aids Orphan’
Misdiagnosis [with Reply]
Is There Still a Terrorist Threat
Simplicity and Spook
It has been common, at least since 1945, to exaggerate and to overreact to foreign threats, something that seems to be continuing with current concerns over international terrorism. This paper sketches threat exaggeration during the Cold War and applies the experience from that era to the current one. Alarmism and overreaction can be harmful, particularly economically. And, in the case of terrorism, it can help create the damaging consequences th…
Six Rather Unusual Propositions about Terrorism
The costs of terrorism very often come mostly from the fear and consequent reaction (or overreaction) it characteristically inspires (qualities stoked by the terrorism industry), not from its direct effects which are usually comparatively limited. Therefore, policies designed to deal with terrorism should focus more on reducing fear and anxiety as inexpensively as possible than on objectively reducing the rather limited dangers terrorism is likel…
Understanding Saddam
Presidential Popularity from Truman to Johnson
I think [my grandchildren] will be proud of two things. What I did for the Negro and seeing it through in Vietnam for all of Asia. The Negro cost me 15 points in the polls and Vietnam cost me 20.Lyndon B. JohnsonWith tenacious regularity over the last two and a half decades the Gallup Poll has posed to its cross-section samples of the American public the following query, "Do you approve or disapprove of the way (the incumbent) is handling his job…
The Banality of “Ethnic War
July 01 2000 The Banality of "Ethnic War" John Mueller John Mueller Hayes Chair of National Security Studies, Mershon Center, and Professor of Political Science at The Ohio State University. Search for other works by this author on: This Site Google Scholar Author and Article Information John Mueller Hayes Chair of National Security Studies, Mershon Center, and Professor of Political Science at The Ohio State University. Online ISSN: 1531-4804 Pr…
Trends in Popular Support for the Wars in Korea and Vietnam
In an examination of responses to public opinion poll questions designed to assess the degree of generalized support for the wars in Korea and Vietnam, popular support for the two wars was found to follow highly similar patterns. Support was high initially but declined as a logarithmic function of American casualties, a function remarkably similar for both wars. While support for the war in Vietnam did finally drop below those levels found during…
Trends in Political Tolerance
Some researchers find a substantial increase in political tolerance since the 1950s, while others find the increase to be "illusory"—the public is more tolerant now of leftists, but has simply found other targets on which to vent its intolerance. Reanalysis and the addition of more extensive trend data from 1940 to 1985 suggest that the shift does seem primarily to reflect increased tolerance of leftists, but that the public has not found other g…
The Essential Irrelevance of Nuclear Weapons
The Strategy of Rhetoric
Choosing Among 133 Candidates
Journal Article CHOOSING AMONG 133 CANDIDATES Get access JOHN E. MUELLER JOHN E. MUELLER †The author is Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Rochester Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Public Opinion Quarterly, Volume 34, Issue 3, FALL 1970, Pages 395–402, https://doi.org/10.1086/267816 Published: 01 January 1970
The Terrorism Delusion
The reaction of Americans to the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, has been massively disproportionate to the actual threat posed by al-Qaida either as an international menace or as an inspiration or model for homegrown amateurs. An examination of the activities of international and domestic terrorist “adversaries” reveals that exaggerations and distortions of the threat have inspired a determined and expensive quest to ferret out, and eve…
Retreat from Doomsday
Retreat from Doomsday: The Obsolescence of Major War. By John Mueller. (New York: Basic, 1989. viii + 327 pp. $20.95.) and War: Ends and Means. By Paul Seabury and Angelo Codevilla. (New York: Basic, 1989. viii + 306 pp. $19.95.) Get access D'Ann Campbell D'Ann Campbell Indiana University, Bloomington Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Journal of American History, Volume 77, Issue 1, June 1990, Pages 364–365,…
The Search for the "Breaking Point" in Vietnam
American strategies for success in the Vietnam War, derived at least partly from historical experience, were based on the assumption that Communist forces would reach a "breaking point" after suffering enough punishment. In conformity with this strategy, extensive damage was inflicted to the point where it appears the military costs accepted by the Communists, in comparison with population, were virtually unprecendented in modern history. The cen…
Sanctions of Mass Destruction
With the demise of the Cold War, virtually all the major problems that afflicted great power relations over the last half-century have been resolved. Many argue, however, that new dangers such as those posed by rogue and terrorism have emerged to re place the old ones of conventional or nuclear war. As part of this shift in how threats are constructed and perceived, old worries about nuclear have been subsumed under the new con cept of weapons of…
War Has Almost Ceased to Exist
Journal Article War Has Almost Ceased to Exist: An Assessment Get access John Mueller John Mueller JOHN MUELLER is a professor of political science at Ohio State University. His most recent books are The Remnants of War, Overblown, and the forthcoming Atomic Obsession: Nuclear Alarmism from Hiroshima to Al Qaeda. Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Political Science Quarterly, Volume 124, Issue 2, Summer 2009,…
Misdiagnosis [with Reply]
Changing Attitudes Towards War
After the First World War the belief became substantially widespread among developed countries that the venerable institution of war should be abandoned from their affairs. It was an idea whose time had come. Historically, the war does not seem to have been all that unusual in its duration, destructiveness, grimness, political pointlessness, economic consequences or breadth. It does seem to have been unique in that (1) it was the first major war …
Simplicity and Spook
It has been common, at least since 1945, to exaggerate and to overreact to foreign threats, something that seems to be continuing with current concerns over international terrorism. This paper sketches threat exaggeration during the Cold War and applies the experience from that era to the current one. Alarmism and overreaction can be harmful, particularly economically. And, in the case of terrorism, it can help create the damaging consequences th…
The Catastrophe Quota
As the major problems that have bedeviled the world over the last half century have been resolved, the quest for things to worry about has continued unabated. The notion has taken hold that international affairs have somehow now become especially tumultuous, unstable, and complex. To arrive at such a conclusion, five techniques have been applied: the past has been simplified, a Eurocentric bias has been introduced, definitions have been changed, …
Is There Still a Terrorist Threat
The perfect enemy
Public Expectations of War During the Cold War
Since 1944, various polling organizations have asked the American people some 200 times of their expectation of world war. This paper analyzes these responsesi.e., war expectations-and, by using regression analysis shows how fluctuations in war are associated with content analytic measures of Cold War activities. Investigation of three educational groups reveals education-based differences of war optimism and pessimism. Finally, a psychology of e…
Voting on the Propositions
Entering the polling booth on Tuesday, November 3, 1964, the typical California voter found himself confronted with an immense sheet of finely-printed green paper, a dirty black rubber stamp, a tiny ink pad, and thirty decisions to render. A few minutes later (the legal maximum is 10) he emerged and numbly surrendered to a clerk his ballot, now slightly embellished, like the fingers of his decision hand, with black ink stains.Most of his decision…
Assessing Measures Designed to Protect the Homeland
Some general parameters are proposed for evaluating homeland security measures that seek to make potential targets notably less vulnerable to terrorist attack, and these are then applied to specific policy considerations. Since the number of targets is essentially unlimited, since the probability that any given target will be attacked is near zero, since the number and competence of terrorists is limited, since target‐selection is effectively a n…
Six Rather Unusual Propositions about Terrorism
The costs of terrorism very often come mostly from the fear and consequent reaction (or overreaction) it characteristically inspires (qualities stoked by the terrorism industry), not from its direct effects which are usually comparatively limited. Therefore, policies designed to deal with terrorism should focus more on reducing fear and anxiety as inexpensively as possible than on objectively reducing the rather limited dangers terrorism is likel…
A Review
Journal Article AMERICAN PUBLIC OPINION AND THE GULF WAR: SOME POLLING ISSUES Get access JOHN MUELLER JOHN MUELLER professor of political science The University of Rochester Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Public Opinion Quarterly, Volume 57, Issue 1, Spring 1993, Pages 80–91, https://doi.org/10.1086/269356 Published: 01 January 1993
Evaluating Counterterrorism Spending
In this article, we present a simple back-of-the-envelope approach for evaluating whether counterterrorism security measures reduce risk sufficiently to justify their costs. The approach uses only four variables: the consequences of a successful attack, the likelihood of a successful attack, the degree to which the security measure reduces risk, and the cost of the security measure. After measuring the cost of a counterterrorism measure, we explo…
Aviation Security, Risk Assessment, and Risk Aversion for Public Decisionmaking
This paper estimates risk reductions for each layer of security designed to prevent commercial passenger airliners from being commandeered by terrorists, kept under control for some time, and then crashed into specific targets. Probabilistic methods are used to characterize the uncertainty of rates of deterrence, detection, and disruption, as well as losses. Since homeland security decisionmakers tend to be risk-averse because of the catastrophic…
The Politics of Fluoridation in Seven California Cities
AS A HEALTH MEASURE, the fluoridation of community water supplies has 4 been approved and enthusiastically endorsed for over a decade by virtually L all the important health people and organizations in the country. Its value is being verified by an increasing number of experiments, surveys, and studies. Yet at the same time it is being rejected more and more consistently by voters at the local level. There are 11 communities in California which h…
Some Comments on Russett's “Discovering Voting Groups in the United Nations”
Factor analysis, a statistical technique of growing popularity in political science, has recently found application in the June, 1966 issue of this Review in an attempt to identify U.N. voting blocs. The hand is that of Professor Bruce M. Russett, the author of a number of outstanding contributions toward the systematic and quantitative study of international relations. The following paragraphs are designed to be cautionary in nature, not destruc…
Fluoridation attitude change
Fluoridation attitude change. J E MuellerCopyRight https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.58.10.1876 Published Online: August 29, 2011
Voting on the Propositions
Entering the polling booth on Tuesday, November 3, 1964, the typical California voter found himself confronted with an immense sheet of finely-printed green paper, a dirty black rubber stamp, a tiny ink pad, and thirty decisions to render. A few minutes later (the legal maximum is 10) he emerged and numbly surrendered to a clerk his ballot, now slightly embellished, like the fingers of his decision hand, with black ink stains.Most of his decision…
The Political Scientist Decides
I always vote for the man, not the party. –Trad. In its election for offices in 1969, the American Political Science Association, apparently for the first time in its rarely turbulent history, found the nominees of its Official Nominating Committee challenged by an insurgent group. In order to handle this unprecedented situation, it was decided at the annual meeting to carry out the election by mail ballot and the American Arbitration Association…
Choosing Among 133 Candidates
Journal Article CHOOSING AMONG 133 CANDIDATES Get access JOHN E. MUELLER JOHN E. MUELLER †The author is Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Rochester Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Public Opinion Quarterly, Volume 34, Issue 3, FALL 1970, Pages 395–402, https://doi.org/10.1086/267816 Published: 01 January 1970
Presidential Popularity from Truman to Johnson
I think [my grandchildren] will be proud of two things. What I did for the Negro and seeing it through in Vietnam for all of Asia. The Negro cost me 15 points in the polls and Vietnam cost me 20.Lyndon B. JohnsonWith tenacious regularity over the last two and a half decades the Gallup Poll has posed to its cross-section samples of the American public the following query, "Do you approve or disapprove of the way (the incumbent) is handling his job…
Trends in Popular Support for the Wars in Korea and Vietnam
In an examination of responses to public opinion poll questions designed to assess the degree of generalized support for the wars in Korea and Vietnam, popular support for the two wars was found to follow highly similar patterns. Support was high initially but declined as a logarithmic function of American casualties, a function remarkably similar for both wars. While support for the war in Vietnam did finally drop below those levels found during…
New Film Catelog American Ballet Theatre
Wars, Presidents and Public Opinion
War, Presidents and Public Opinion
The Lost Peace
Journal Article The Lost Peace: America's Search for a Negotiated Settlement of the Vietnam War, by Allan E. Goodman Get access The Lost Peace: America’s Search for a Negotiated Settlement of the Vietnam War by Allan E. Goodman. Stanford, Calif., Hoover Institution Press, 1978. 298 pp. $22.50. John E. Mueller John E. Mueller University of Rochester Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Political Science Quarterl…
Public Expectations of War During the Cold War
Since 1944, various polling organizations have asked the American people some 200 times of their expectation of world war. This paper analyzes these responsesi.e., war expectations-and, by using regression analysis shows how fluctuations in war are associated with content analytic measures of Cold War activities. Investigation of three educational groups reveals education-based differences of war optimism and pessimism. Finally, a psychology of e…
Is Giselle a virgin
In his book The Ballet Called Giselle, Cyril W. Beaumont expresses a degree of puzzlement over an important plot development, one which has also bothered other observers: Giselle's remarkably sudden descent into fatal on discovering she has been deceived by Albrecht. Quick temper and poor health might explain her frenzy and her tears, he observes, but what should cause madness to result from what at worst is no more than a bitter disappointment? …
[The Search for the "Breaking Point" in Vietnam]
Journal Article Rejoinder Get access John E. Mueller John E. Mueller Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar International Studies Quarterly, Volume 24, Issue 4, December 1980, Pages 530–531, https://doi.org/10.2307/2600290 Published: 01 December 1980
The Search for the "Breaking Point" in Vietnam
American strategies for success in the Vietnam War, derived at least partly from historical experience, were based on the assumption that Communist forces would reach a "breaking point" after suffering enough punishment. In conformity with this strategy, extensive damage was inflicted to the point where it appears the military costs accepted by the Communists, in comparison with population, were virtually unprecendented in modern history. The cen…
The Essential Irrelevance of Nuclear Weapons
Trends in Political Tolerance
Some researchers find a substantial increase in political tolerance since the 1950s, while others find the increase to be "illusory"—the public is more tolerant now of leftists, but has simply found other targets on which to vent its intolerance. Reanalysis and the addition of more extensive trend data from 1940 to 1985 suggest that the shift does seem primarily to reflect increased tolerance of leftists, but that the public has not found other g…
A New Concert of Europe
Is War Obsolete
Retreat from Doomsday
Retreat from Doomsday: The Obsolescence of Major War. By John Mueller. (New York: Basic, 1989. viii + 327 pp. $20.95.) and War: Ends and Means. By Paul Seabury and Angelo Codevilla. (New York: Basic, 1989. viii + 306 pp. $19.95.) Get access D'Ann Campbell D'Ann Campbell Indiana University, Bloomington Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Journal of American History, Volume 77, Issue 1, June 1990, Pages 364–365,…
Retreat from Doomsday
Pearl Harbor
Retreat From Doomsday
Changing Attitudes Towards War
After the First World War the belief became substantially widespread among developed countries that the venerable institution of war should be abandoned from their affairs. It was an idea whose time had come. Historically, the war does not seem to have been all that unusual in its duration, destructiveness, grimness, political pointlessness, economic consequences or breadth. It does seem to have been unique in that (1) it was the first major war …
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