Jacek Kugler
Biographic Data
| ID | 968698 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Jacek Kugler |
| GIVEN NAMES | Jacek |
| FAMILY NAME | Kugler |
| SIGNATURE | KUGLER J |
| AFFILIATIONS | Claremont Graduate University |
| ORCID | 0000-0003-4628-7433 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 48 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 331 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 46 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 2 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1977 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2026 |
| H-INDEX | 9 |
Retirement challenges amidst demographic changes
Around the start of the 21st century, countries began to experience a unique demographic transition. After generations of declining dependency and expanding labor forces, increasing longevity and persistently low fertility have reversed dependency trajectories. This paper examines the political consequences of rapid demographic aging and retirement reforms. An empirical assessment of 41 countries from 1980 to 2020 suggests that efforts to postpon…
Beyond deterrence
This paper identifies profound contradictions within and across nuclear deterrence strategies that evolved in response to the proliferation and modernization of nuclear weapons. To reconcile theory with practice, we summarize the theoretical assumptions and implications of nuclear strategy. Informed by these discussions, we develop a decision-theoretic model of deterrence based on power transition theory. We explore conditions for the stability o…
Foundations of Power Transition Theory
Power Transition theory is a dynamic and structural model for analyzing fundamental shifts in global power. The theory itself, while maintaining its core concepts, has metamorphosed over time by adding new dimensions and addressing new topics. It is both data based and qualitatively intuitive. As a probabilistic theory, it has proven useful in predicting the conditions that forecast both conflict and cooperation at the global, national, and subna…
Assessment of deterrence and missile defense in East Asia
This paper explores the stability of deterrence in East Asia and the effects of missile defense on regional security. In particular, we evaluate the policy implications derived from the power transition perspective for the development of the US missile defense system in the Asia-Pacific region. Over the short term, we anticipate that the stability of deterrence in East Asia will be increased by the deployment of ballistic missile defenses that cr…
Pathways to Stability for Transition Governments in the Middle East and North Africa
Selectorate theory posits that within each society, there is a political selectorate containing a winning coalition. This coalition, comprised of societal individuals, groups, and entities, selects the national leader whose aim is political survival. The original version of the theory suggested that the selectorate expands in step with the ability of the leader to provide private or public goods to its supporters in various combinations. This stu…
Consequences of Reversing the European Union Integration
Today, financial crisis once again threatens the unity among member states and future of the European Union. The magnitude of the problem is so grave that observers and analysts have concluded a big decision must be made regarding fiscal union (thus political union) to save EMU. “Is this really the end of the road for Eurozone?” Using Power Transition theory, our analysis shows that trust and relative political capabilities are essential to build…
Turkey and the West
As the only Muslim majority secular country in its region with a pro-western democracy, Turkey is pivotal to western interests in the Middle East. However, Turkey's European Union accession negotiations are currently at a deadlock, and disparity between Turkey and the West is increasing on many critical issues. Despite its liberal market orientation, a more socially conservative Turkey is causing apprehension to its western partners. Turkey has s…
Demographic and Economic Consequences of Conflict
Research on conflict traditionally focuses on its initiation, duration, and severity, but seldom on its consequences. Yet, demographic and economic recovery from the consequences of war lasts far longer and may be more devastating than the waging war. Our concern is with war losses and post-war recovery leading to convergence with pre-war performance. To test this proposition, we choose the most severe international and civil wars after 1920. We …
Neuroeconomics and International Studies
Nearly all political choices depend on trust—or a lack thereof. In world politics, successful negotiations, arms agreements, and deterrence postures all depend on trust. This paper reviews recent findings in neuroeconomics that have identified the neuroactive hormone oxytocin as a key brain mechanism that causes people to trust strangers. This research has also identified the physiologic and behavioral effect of distrust. A neurologically informe…
Re-conceptualizing Security Research with Individual Level Data
Path to Prosperity
We present a dynamic general equilibrium model that formalizes the political mechanisms that prompt demographic change and augment economic development. We demonstrate that in addition to well-established economic determinants, fertility decisions, human capital accumulation and economic development are altered by three fundamental political variables: political freedom, political stability, and political capacity. Using the model, we derive a se…
War Initiation in a Changing World
The Asian Ascent
Demographic and social scientific research suggests, with near certainty, that by the end of this century, the two Asian giants, China and India, will have surpassed the United States on certain key indicators of national power. The implications for the future of world politics are profound, but the outcomes are not predetermined. If the coming power transition is managed wisely, there is an opportunity for continued peace among the Great Powers.…
Integrating Theory and Policy
War is too important to be left to the generals or to the politicians. In a dynamic world increasing in complexity at a geometric rate, it is no longer prudent to assume that any one professional class alone, no matter their dedication or training, can be the objective repository for all knowledge, analysis, synthesis, and estimative power on how to conduct war. Just as the U.S. Constitution was founded on the concept of separate institutions sha…
The Political Future of Afghanistan and Its Implications for US Policy
This paper provides a forecast of the likely consequences of ongoing US military activity in Afghanistan, and assesses the implications of a change in the current US policy toward that nation. We use a game theoretic, bounded rationality model, called the Expected Utility model, to analyze the stability of the political and economic systems in Afghanistan, given both the domestic and international context. We undertook two analyses, one in Decemb…
From War to Integration
Generalizing the dynamics implied by power transition theory, we characterize the structural conditions that lead nations to initiate conflict or choose to integrate. The relationship between changes in relative power, hierarchical structures, and joint satisfaction are used to identify the structural conditions for conflict and cooperation. Empirical tests for the last two centuries confirm the strength and robustness of this characterization. I…
Population Growth, Urbanisation and the Role of Government in China
This essay uses a political economy model to study the relationship between urbanisation and demographic change in China. The model identifies political stability and government capacity as two crucial factors that shape family decisions regarding the number of children. As population growth and economic growth are interrelated, a government can use the political process to achieve its economic objectives. The implications of the model are tested…
Governing for Prosperity . Bruce Bueno de Mesquita , Hilton Root
Comparing rational choice and prospect theory analyses
The purpose of this article is to compare an expected utility rational actor model of decision making with a Prospect theory psychological model of decision making. Each theory is presented and then applied to the well known case surrounding the United States’ decision to launch Operation ‘Desert Storm’ in January 1991 at the outset of the Gulf War. Our goal is not to present new findings concerning the origins or outcomes of the Gulf conflict so…
Hungary's seven border regions
This essay describes the regional characteristics of Hungary's border regions, focusing specifically on cross‐border cooperation. Hungary's seven border regions share a similar political and economic history. Some of the challenges that these regions have faced include the unfavorable effect that the Trianon Peace Treaty had on Hungary's borderline, the shortcomings of both domestic and foreign policy induced by Council for Mutual Economic Assist…
Negotiating peace in Kosovo
We systematically analyze and forecast key developments before and during the Kosovo Crisis. Prior to the air campaign, we anticipated the breakdown of negotiations at Rambouillet and the subsequent initiation of hostilities. Without Russia as a mediator, we predicted that Milosevic would engage in military activity and strengthen his domestic control. As the war was being waged, we took a second look at settlement opportunities. Russia was ident…
The Politics of Fertility and Economic Development
This paper presents a formal model that characterizes the two faces of development—persistent poverty, and industrialization and rising incomes—and establishes that the interaction between politics and economics determines which path a nation travels. We demonstrate that political factors affect fertility decisions so that a one-time disturbance compounds across generations, impacting a country's entire development trajectory. Modeling strategic …
Explaining and Modeling Democratic Transitions
The goal of this issue is to initiate the process of systematically formalizing the essential arguments on democratic transitions and testing their implications. A powerful way to organize and expand our knowledge mathematical modeling in this issue provides insights into the dynamics of the democratic transition process by revealing unexpected conditions and generating testable hypotheses. The empirically supported regularities can be then used …
The Costs of Major Wars
A major unexplored area in the field of international politics is the consequences of major war for members of the international system in terms of power lost or gained. This paper explores these shifts of power among neutrals, winners, and losers as a result of these wars, using a sample of 32 cases and time series analysis. The findings register unexpected but systematic patterns after major conflicts; while winners and neutrals are affected ma…
The war ledger
War Ledger provides fresh, sophisticated answers to fundamental questions about major modern wars: Why do major wars begin? What accounts for victory or defeat in war? How do victory and defeat influence the recovery of the combatants? Are the rules governing conflict behavior between nations the same since the advent of the nuclear era? The authors find such well-known theories as the balance of power and collective security systems inadequate t…
Power Parity, Democracy, and the Severity of Internal Violence
This study applies insights from the power parity and the democratic peace perspectives to the issue of internal political violence. These two international relations perspectives translate well to the domain of domestic politics. Relative parity of resources between the government and the opposition are shown to lead to higher levels of violence. Democratic countries with highly competitive and participatory institutions are able to mitigate vio…
Comparing the Strength of Nations
The political capacity of advanced societies is measured. We show that politically capable governments can mobilize vast resources from the society under the stress of war, but totalitarian, democratic and authoritarian regimes do not determine the level of performance. The absolute political capacity of rich nations is higher than that of poorer ones, but surprisingly, poor nations can increase their political capacity more effectively under str…
Terror without Deterrence
Nuclear deterrence may be a useful political strategy, but it may not provide an effective empirical description of the behavior of nations faced with the prospect of major war. This evaluation is based on two tests. Empirical analysis of extreme crises since 1945 fails to detect substantial changes in interaction between nuclear and non-nuclear nations. Further, there is no evidence that nuclear weapons have added stability to the relation betwe…
The Politics of Fertility and Economic Development
This paper presents a formal model that characterizes the two faces of development—persistent poverty, and industrialization and rising incomes—and establishes that the interaction between politics and economics determines which path a nation travels. We demonstrate that political factors affect fertility decisions so that a one-time disturbance compounds across generations, impacting a country's entire development trajectory. Modeling strategic …
The Costs of Major Wars
A major unexplored area in the field of international politics is the consequences of major war for members of the international system in terms of power lost or gained. This paper explores these shifts of power among neutrals, winners, and losers as a result of these wars, using a sample of 32 cases and time series analysis. The findings register unexpected but systematic patterns after major conflicts; while winners and neutrals are affected ma…
From War to Integration
Generalizing the dynamics implied by power transition theory, we characterize the structural conditions that lead nations to initiate conflict or choose to integrate. The relationship between changes in relative power, hierarchical structures, and joint satisfaction are used to identify the structural conditions for conflict and cooperation. Empirical tests for the last two centuries confirm the strength and robustness of this characterization. I…
Davids and Goliaths
The long‐term stability of deterrence
In this article, we construct a model of deterrence that specifically integrates both systemic and decision‐making variables. After contrasting its underlying structure with more standard views of the deterrence relationship, we demonstrate the logical consistency of the power transition model with the expected utility framework. The model we develop combines and extends the insights of each of these two approaches, thereby permitting us to devel…
Exploring the “Phoenix Factor” with the Collective Goods Perspective
This inquiry explores whether domestic political and economic levels of destruction account for the ability of developed nations to recover within two decades from the massive economic losses they suffer in the wake of a war. We test Olson's collective goods argument that nations defeated in war, the political structures and distributional coalitions of which are also devastated, will thereby increase economic competition and accelerate economic …
The politics of foreign debt in Latin America a study of the debtors’ cartel
This analysis of the foreign debt problem in Latin America shows that this economic burden is onerous and will not be reduced in the short run. The region's political leaders perceived that collective bargaining could increase their bargaining leverage with foreign lenders and could produce more advantageous repayment schedules for most nations. However, despite verbal backing and the economic promise of collective bargaining, a debtors’ cartel f…
Demographic and Economic Consequences of Conflict
Research on conflict traditionally focuses on its initiation, duration, and severity, but seldom on its consequences. Yet, demographic and economic recovery from the consequences of war lasts far longer and may be more devastating than the waging war. Our concern is with war losses and post-war recovery leading to convergence with pre-war performance. To test this proposition, we choose the most severe international and civil wars after 1920. We …
The Asian Ascent
Demographic and social scientific research suggests, with near certainty, that by the end of this century, the two Asian giants, China and India, will have surpassed the United States on certain key indicators of national power. The implications for the future of world politics are profound, but the outcomes are not predetermined. If the coming power transition is managed wisely, there is an opportunity for continued peace among the Great Powers.…
The end of hegemony
This study challenges the notion that the United States is a declining hegemon, or that the Western regime is in peril. Comparisons of economic output, trade, and power statistics indicate that the United States continues to hold a more favorable position than previous hegemons did at comparable periods in the trajectory of their rule in relation to both its allies and opponents. Most important, indicators of power (unlike economic indicators) su…
Comparing rational choice and prospect theory analyses
The purpose of this article is to compare an expected utility rational actor model of decision making with a Prospect theory psychological model of decision making. Each theory is presented and then applied to the well known case surrounding the United States’ decision to launch Operation ‘Desert Storm’ in January 1991 at the outset of the Gulf War. Our goal is not to present new findings concerning the origins or outcomes of the Gulf conflict so…
Deterrence and the Arms Race
So much has been done in the name of nuclear deterrence, so much destructive power built by ourselves and the Russians that it may seem rather late in the day, not to say absurd, to wonder whether or not mutual deterrence really occurs and ask what evidence can be adduced to prove it. Yet such a question may be essential to an understanding of international nuclear politics. The problems thus posed are difficult, however, and cannot be solved by …
Explaining and Modeling Democratic Transitions
The goal of this issue is to initiate the process of systematically formalizing the essential arguments on democratic transitions and testing their implications. A powerful way to organize and expand our knowledge mathematical modeling in this issue provides insights into the dynamics of the democratic transition process by revealing unexpected conditions and generating testable hypotheses. The empirically supported regularities can be then used …
From Desert Shield To Desert Storm
This real time evaluation of decisions during the Gulf Crisis were done to establish the utility of systematic evaluations based on the tenets of the micro-economic theory of expected utility. The expected utility framework used assumes that decision-makers evaluate the costs and benefits associated with viable choices seeking the largest net gain for each group at acceptable levels of risk. The forecast and simulations shows the initial and even…
Political Determinants of Population Dynamics
The article suggests that the massive transformation of the political system often referred to as “political development” is responsible for the movement from high to low birth-and death rates in national populations. The effect of the changing political system is independent of (and in addition to) the effects of socioeconomic changes previously presented in the theory of demographic demographic transition. The article reports first the nature o…
Neuroeconomics and International Studies
Nearly all political choices depend on trust—or a lack thereof. In world politics, successful negotiations, arms agreements, and deterrence postures all depend on trust. This paper reviews recent findings in neuroeconomics that have identified the neuroactive hormone oxytocin as a key brain mechanism that causes people to trust strangers. This research has also identified the physiologic and behavioral effect of distrust. A neurologically informe…
Integrating Theory and Policy
War is too important to be left to the generals or to the politicians. In a dynamic world increasing in complexity at a geometric rate, it is no longer prudent to assume that any one professional class alone, no matter their dedication or training, can be the objective repository for all knowledge, analysis, synthesis, and estimative power on how to conduct war. Just as the U.S. Constitution was founded on the concept of separate institutions sha…
War Initiation in a Changing World
Consequences of Reversing the European Union Integration
Today, financial crisis once again threatens the unity among member states and future of the European Union. The magnitude of the problem is so grave that observers and analysts have concluded a big decision must be made regarding fiscal union (thus political union) to save EMU. “Is this really the end of the road for Eurozone?” Using Power Transition theory, our analysis shows that trust and relative political capabilities are essential to build…
Path to Prosperity
We present a dynamic general equilibrium model that formalizes the political mechanisms that prompt demographic change and augment economic development. We demonstrate that in addition to well-established economic determinants, fertility decisions, human capital accumulation and economic development are altered by three fundamental political variables: political freedom, political stability, and political capacity. Using the model, we derive a se…
The war phenomenon
Wars have many common characteristics yet, like cancers, a general diagnosis is difficult because symptoms differ markedly. Systemic approaches are useful because they determine under what circumstances crises—the necessary preconditions for wars—may escalate into limited or major wars. This systemic diagnostic tool is particularly important in the nuclear era because the consequences of major war have been exponentially magnified. To illustrate …
Assessment of deterrence and missile defense in East Asia
This paper explores the stability of deterrence in East Asia and the effects of missile defense on regional security. In particular, we evaluate the policy implications derived from the power transition perspective for the development of the US missile defense system in the Asia-Pacific region. Over the short term, we anticipate that the stability of deterrence in East Asia will be increased by the deployment of ballistic missile defenses that cr…
The Costs of Major Wars
A major unexplored area in the field of international politics is the consequences of major war for members of the international system in terms of power lost or gained. This paper explores these shifts of power among neutrals, winners, and losers as a result of these wars, using a sample of 32 cases and time series analysis. The findings register unexpected but systematic patterns after major conflicts; while winners and neutrals are affected ma…
Davids and Goliaths
The War Ledger
Deterrence and the Arms Race
So much has been done in the name of nuclear deterrence, so much destructive power built by ourselves and the Russians that it may seem rather late in the day, not to say absurd, to wonder whether or not mutual deterrence really occurs and ask what evidence can be adduced to prove it. Yet such a question may be essential to an understanding of international nuclear politics. The problems thus posed are difficult, however, and cannot be solved by …
Political Determinants of Population Dynamics
The article suggests that the massive transformation of the political system often referred to as “political development” is responsible for the movement from high to low birth-and death rates in national populations. The effect of the changing political system is independent of (and in addition to) the effects of socioeconomic changes previously presented in the theory of demographic demographic transition. The article reports first the nature o…
Terror without Deterrence
Nuclear deterrence may be a useful political strategy, but it may not provide an effective empirical description of the behavior of nations faced with the prospect of major war. This evaluation is based on two tests. Empirical analysis of extreme crises since 1945 fails to detect substantial changes in interaction between nuclear and non-nuclear nations. Further, there is no evidence that nuclear weapons have added stability to the relation betwe…
Births, Deaths, and Taxes
This book is concerned with the relationship between political change and demographic change. In particular the authors attempt to identify how political changes affect patterns of fertility and mortality and they maintain that the growth in government power as measured by increases in taxation has a direct influence on the number of children born and the number of people dying in a given population. According to this hypothesis the larger the sc…
Comparing the Strength of Nations
The political capacity of advanced societies is measured. We show that politically capable governments can mobilize vast resources from the society under the stress of war, but totalitarian, democratic and authoritarian regimes do not determine the level of performance. The absolute political capacity of rich nations is higher than that of poorer ones, but surprisingly, poor nations can increase their political capacity more effectively under str…
Exploring the Stability of Deterrence
To provide a firmer foundation for evaluating the consequences of deploying nuclear weapons, this book explores the theoretical underpinnings of the uneasy relationships among nuclear powers
The politics of foreign debt in Latin America a study of the debtors’ cartel
This analysis of the foreign debt problem in Latin America shows that this economic burden is onerous and will not be reduced in the short run. The region's political leaders perceived that collective bargaining could increase their bargaining leverage with foreign lenders and could produce more advantageous repayment schedules for most nations. However, despite verbal backing and the economic promise of collective bargaining, a debtors’ cartel f…
Choosing Among Measures of Power
Power in World Politics
Explores power relationships in world politics, focusing on what power is and what it is not, on the ways in which power has been assessed, and on the major lessons for international politics that can be gleaned through an analysis of power.
The end of hegemony
This study challenges the notion that the United States is a declining hegemon, or that the Western regime is in peril. Comparisons of economic output, trade, and power statistics indicate that the United States continues to hold a more favorable position than previous hegemons did at comparable periods in the trajectory of their rule in relation to both its allies and opponents. Most important, indicators of power (unlike economic indicators) su…
Exploring the “Phoenix Factor” with the Collective Goods Perspective
This inquiry explores whether domestic political and economic levels of destruction account for the ability of developed nations to recover within two decades from the massive economic losses they suffer in the wake of a war. We test Olson's collective goods argument that nations defeated in war, the political structures and distributional coalitions of which are also devastated, will thereby increase economic competition and accelerate economic …
The long‐term stability of deterrence
In this article, we construct a model of deterrence that specifically integrates both systemic and decision‐making variables. After contrasting its underlying structure with more standard views of the deterrence relationship, we demonstrate the logical consistency of the power transition model with the expected utility framework. The model we develop combines and extends the insights of each of these two approaches, thereby permitting us to devel…
The war phenomenon
Wars have many common characteristics yet, like cancers, a general diagnosis is difficult because symptoms differ markedly. Systemic approaches are useful because they determine under what circumstances crises—the necessary preconditions for wars—may escalate into limited or major wars. This systemic diagnostic tool is particularly important in the nuclear era because the consequences of major war have been exponentially magnified. To illustrate …
Formal Theories in International Relations. Michael Nicholson
From Desert Shield To Desert Storm
This real time evaluation of decisions during the Gulf Crisis were done to establish the utility of systematic evaluations based on the tenets of the micro-economic theory of expected utility. The expected utility framework used assumes that decision-makers evaluate the costs and benefits associated with viable choices seeking the largest net gain for each group at acceptable levels of risk. The forecast and simulations shows the initial and even…
Parity and War
Nafta
This paper reviews the decision making process during the 1993 NAFTA debate and Congressional vote, and evaluates the likelihood that key provisions on trucking will be implemented. We provide empirical evidence that a combination of expert knowledge and modeling allows analysts to accurately obtain insights and anticipate outcomes of political processes. Utilizing the Expected Utility approach to analyze the NAFTA negotiations prior to the Congr…
Unraveling the ties that divide
This work presents a clear picture of the domestic transformation which has followed the breakup of the Soviet Union. It demonstrates that the integrity of the Soviet Union was secondary to the integrity of Russia. The contest over economic reform was central in generating the Parliamentary Revolt in 1993 and in influencing the elections of 1996. However, it was only partially involved in the coup against Gorbachev in 1991 and was secondary in th…
The Policy Implications of Power Parity
Noting that important discoveries linger in the classrooms despite effective specification and empirical support, a bridge from theory to policy is advocated. Policy prescriptions should be made cautiously, but they must be made when failure to disclose scientific findings has serious downside implications. The power transition research project pioneered by AFK Organski is used as an illustration because this perspective systematically and accura…
Power Parity, Democracy, and the Severity of Internal Violence
This study applies insights from the power parity and the democratic peace perspectives to the issue of internal political violence. These two international relations perspectives translate well to the domain of domestic politics. Relative parity of resources between the government and the opposition are shown to lead to higher levels of violence. Democratic countries with highly competitive and participatory institutions are able to mitigate vio…
Explaining and Modeling Democratic Transitions
The goal of this issue is to initiate the process of systematically formalizing the essential arguments on democratic transitions and testing their implications. A powerful way to organize and expand our knowledge mathematical modeling in this issue provides insights into the dynamics of the democratic transition process by revealing unexpected conditions and generating testable hypotheses. The empirically supported regularities can be then used …
Hungary's seven border regions
This essay describes the regional characteristics of Hungary's border regions, focusing specifically on cross‐border cooperation. Hungary's seven border regions share a similar political and economic history. Some of the challenges that these regions have faced include the unfavorable effect that the Trianon Peace Treaty had on Hungary's borderline, the shortcomings of both domestic and foreign policy induced by Council for Mutual Economic Assist…
Political science (43 works) · Law (38 works) · Economics (36 works) · Law (33 works) · Politics (29 works) · Political economy (27 works) · Development economics (21 works) · International Relations and Foreign Policy (18 works) · Sociology (15 works) · Computer Science (13 works)