Terence C Mills
Biographic Data
| ID | 990565 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Terence C Mills |
| GIVEN NAMES | Terence C |
| FAMILY NAME | Mills |
| SIGNATURE | MILLS T C |
| AFFILIATIONS | Loughborough University |
| ORCID | 0000-0003-3757-9338 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 21 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 79 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 21 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1985 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2022 |
| H-INDEX | 6 |
Considering the Counterfactual
We investigate a structural model of demographic-economic interactions for England during 1570 to 1850. We estimate that the annual rate of population growth consistent with constant real wages was 0.4% before 1760 but 1.5% thereafter. We find that exogenous shocks increased population growth dramatically in the early decades of the Industrial Revolution. Simulations of our model show that if these demographic shocks had occurred before the Indus…
Rearmament to the Rescue? New Estimates of the Impact of "Keynesian" Policies in 1930s' Britain
We report estimates of the fiscal multiplier for interwar Britain based on quarterly data, time-series econometrics, and "defense news." We find that the government expenditure multiplier was in the range 0.3 to 0.8, much lower than previous estimates. The scope for a Keynesian solution to recession was less than is generally supposed. We find that rearmament gave a smaller boost to real GDP than previously claimed. Rearmament may, however, have …
Modelling trends and cycles in economic time series
Exploring historical economic relationships
Total factor productivity growth on Britain’s railways, 1852–1912
TFP Growth in British and German Manufacturing, 1950–1996
The Paper considers the accuracy of traditional TFP growth estimates using an econometric methodology which takes account of scale economies, fixed factors of production and adjustment costs to reveal underlying ‘pure technological change’. The results suggest that these biases vary substantially over time but do not impact heavily on Anglo-German comparisons. In both countries the early post-war years are a period when adjustment costs from a ri…
Was 19th century British growth steam-powered
Have output growth rates stabilised? evidence from the g‐7 economies
In this paper we consider an extension of Hamilton's Markov chain model of output growth that allows for a one‐time structural break in the hyperparameters. We fit this model to post‐war quarterly output growth data from the G‐7 economies and find evidence for such a structural break in each of them, although the break occurs at different times. The break is always associated with a decline in volatility and often with a narrowing of the mean gro…
Endogenous Innovation, Trend Growth, and the British Industrial Revolution
David Greasley and Les Oxley provide an interesting but ultimately unconvincing chalenge to the perspective on the British Industrial Revolution that we have set out in recent articles 1 . We believe that the issues that they raise are important and deserve a full response. Thus, we take the opportunity to clarify ideas on growth theory and its implications for growth accounting, to review the econometrics of estimating trend growth in an economy…
Trend Growth in British Industrial Output, 1700–1913
Unemployment Fluctuations in the United States
Terence C. Mills, Gianluigi Pelloni, Athina Zervoyianni, Unemployment Fluctuations in the United States: Further Tests of the Sectoral-Shifts Hypothesis, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 77, No. 2 (May, 1995), pp. 294-304
British Bank Conservatism in the Late 19th Century
The Econometric Modelling of Financial Time Series
Journal Article The Econometric Modelling of Financial Time Series. Get access The Econometric Modelling of Financial Time Series. By (Terence C) Mills. (Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press, 1993. Pp. viii + 247. £35.00 hardback. ISBN 0 521 41048 7.) Svend Hylleberg Svend Hylleberg University of Aarhus Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Economic Journal, Volume 105, Issue 431, 1 July 1995, …
Trends in Real Wages in Britain, 1750-1913
The Industrial Revolution as a Macroeconomic Epoch
How Robust Is the Finding That Innovations to Uk Output Are Persistent
The finding that output innovations in the United Kingdom are persistent is shown to be robust to a variety of extensions and modifications to the unit root-persistence methodology. A one percent innovation to current output changes long-run forecasts of output by at least one percent and, although the possibility that output returns to a constant trend path cannot be completely ruled out, any such mean reversion would have to be extremely slow; …
Money and business cycles in the United States, 1870 to 1913
Measurement of trend growth in European industrial output before 1914
A note on the Gibson Paradox during the gold standard
Exchange Rate Management Under Uncertainty
Journal Article Exchange Rate Management Under Uncertainty Get access Exchange Rate Management Under Uncertainty. Edited by JAGDEEP S. BHANDARI. (Cambridge, Massachusetts & London: The MIT Press, 1985. Pp. xi + 296. £33-50 hardback.) Terence C. Mills Terence C. Mills University of Leeds Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Economic Journal, Volume 96, Issue 381, 1 March 1986, Pages 248–250, https://doi.org/…
Exchange Rates, Money and Output
Journal Article Exchange Rates, Money and Output Get access Exchange Rates, Money and Output. By PAUL DE GRAUWE, MICHELE FRATIANNI and MUSTAPHA K. NABLI. (Basingstoke: Macmillan, 1985. Pp. xi + 240. £30.00 hardback.) Terence C. Mills Terence C. Mills University of Leeds Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Economic Journal, Volume 95, Issue 379, 1 September 1985, Pages 808–809, https://doi.org/10.2307/22330…
Total factor productivity growth on Britain’s railways, 1852–1912
Trends in Real Wages in Britain, 1750-1913
Measurement of trend growth in European industrial output before 1914
Trend Growth in British Industrial Output, 1700–1913
Rearmament to the Rescue? New Estimates of the Impact of "Keynesian" Policies in 1930s' Britain
We report estimates of the fiscal multiplier for interwar Britain based on quarterly data, time-series econometrics, and "defense news." We find that the government expenditure multiplier was in the range 0.3 to 0.8, much lower than previous estimates. The scope for a Keynesian solution to recession was less than is generally supposed. We find that rearmament gave a smaller boost to real GDP than previously claimed. Rearmament may, however, have …
Was 19th century British growth steam-powered
TFP Growth in British and German Manufacturing, 1950–1996
The Paper considers the accuracy of traditional TFP growth estimates using an econometric methodology which takes account of scale economies, fixed factors of production and adjustment costs to reveal underlying ‘pure technological change’. The results suggest that these biases vary substantially over time but do not impact heavily on Anglo-German comparisons. In both countries the early post-war years are a period when adjustment costs from a ri…
British Bank Conservatism in the Late 19th Century
Considering the Counterfactual
We investigate a structural model of demographic-economic interactions for England during 1570 to 1850. We estimate that the annual rate of population growth consistent with constant real wages was 0.4% before 1760 but 1.5% thereafter. We find that exogenous shocks increased population growth dramatically in the early decades of the Industrial Revolution. Simulations of our model show that if these demographic shocks had occurred before the Indus…
The Industrial Revolution as a Macroeconomic Epoch
Exchange Rate Management Under Uncertainty
Journal Article Exchange Rate Management Under Uncertainty Get access Exchange Rate Management Under Uncertainty. Edited by JAGDEEP S. BHANDARI. (Cambridge, Massachusetts & London: The MIT Press, 1985. Pp. xi + 296. £33-50 hardback.) Terence C. Mills Terence C. Mills University of Leeds Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Economic Journal, Volume 96, Issue 381, 1 March 1986, Pages 248–250, https://doi.org/…
Have output growth rates stabilised? evidence from the g‐7 economies
In this paper we consider an extension of Hamilton's Markov chain model of output growth that allows for a one‐time structural break in the hyperparameters. We fit this model to post‐war quarterly output growth data from the G‐7 economies and find evidence for such a structural break in each of them, although the break occurs at different times. The break is always associated with a decline in volatility and often with a narrowing of the mean gro…
Endogenous Innovation, Trend Growth, and the British Industrial Revolution
David Greasley and Les Oxley provide an interesting but ultimately unconvincing chalenge to the perspective on the British Industrial Revolution that we have set out in recent articles 1 . We believe that the issues that they raise are important and deserve a full response. Thus, we take the opportunity to clarify ideas on growth theory and its implications for growth accounting, to review the econometrics of estimating trend growth in an economy…
Exchange Rates, Money and Output
Journal Article Exchange Rates, Money and Output Get access Exchange Rates, Money and Output. By PAUL DE GRAUWE, MICHELE FRATIANNI and MUSTAPHA K. NABLI. (Basingstoke: Macmillan, 1985. Pp. xi + 240. £30.00 hardback.) Terence C. Mills Terence C. Mills University of Leeds Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Economic Journal, Volume 95, Issue 379, 1 September 1985, Pages 808–809, https://doi.org/10.2307/22330…
Exchange Rate Management Under Uncertainty
Journal Article Exchange Rate Management Under Uncertainty Get access Exchange Rate Management Under Uncertainty. Edited by JAGDEEP S. BHANDARI. (Cambridge, Massachusetts & London: The MIT Press, 1985. Pp. xi + 296. £33-50 hardback.) Terence C. Mills Terence C. Mills University of Leeds Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Economic Journal, Volume 96, Issue 381, 1 March 1986, Pages 248–250, https://doi.org/…
Measurement of trend growth in European industrial output before 1914
A note on the Gibson Paradox during the gold standard
How Robust Is the Finding That Innovations to Uk Output Are Persistent
The finding that output innovations in the United Kingdom are persistent is shown to be robust to a variety of extensions and modifications to the unit root-persistence methodology. A one percent innovation to current output changes long-run forecasts of output by at least one percent and, although the possibility that output returns to a constant trend path cannot be completely ruled out, any such mean reversion would have to be extremely slow; …
Money and business cycles in the United States, 1870 to 1913
Trends in Real Wages in Britain, 1750-1913
The Industrial Revolution as a Macroeconomic Epoch
Unemployment Fluctuations in the United States
Terence C. Mills, Gianluigi Pelloni, Athina Zervoyianni, Unemployment Fluctuations in the United States: Further Tests of the Sectoral-Shifts Hypothesis, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 77, No. 2 (May, 1995), pp. 294-304
British Bank Conservatism in the Late 19th Century
The Econometric Modelling of Financial Time Series
Journal Article The Econometric Modelling of Financial Time Series. Get access The Econometric Modelling of Financial Time Series. By (Terence C) Mills. (Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press, 1993. Pp. viii + 247. £35.00 hardback. ISBN 0 521 41048 7.) Svend Hylleberg Svend Hylleberg University of Aarhus Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Economic Journal, Volume 105, Issue 431, 1 July 1995, …
Trend Growth in British Industrial Output, 1700–1913
Endogenous Innovation, Trend Growth, and the British Industrial Revolution
David Greasley and Les Oxley provide an interesting but ultimately unconvincing chalenge to the perspective on the British Industrial Revolution that we have set out in recent articles 1 . We believe that the issues that they raise are important and deserve a full response. Thus, we take the opportunity to clarify ideas on growth theory and its implications for growth accounting, to review the econometrics of estimating trend growth in an economy…
Have output growth rates stabilised? evidence from the g‐7 economies
In this paper we consider an extension of Hamilton's Markov chain model of output growth that allows for a one‐time structural break in the hyperparameters. We fit this model to post‐war quarterly output growth data from the G‐7 economies and find evidence for such a structural break in each of them, although the break occurs at different times. The break is always associated with a decline in volatility and often with a narrowing of the mean gro…
Was 19th century British growth steam-powered
TFP Growth in British and German Manufacturing, 1950–1996
The Paper considers the accuracy of traditional TFP growth estimates using an econometric methodology which takes account of scale economies, fixed factors of production and adjustment costs to reveal underlying ‘pure technological change’. The results suggest that these biases vary substantially over time but do not impact heavily on Anglo-German comparisons. In both countries the early post-war years are a period when adjustment costs from a ri…
Total factor productivity growth on Britain’s railways, 1852–1912
Exploring historical economic relationships
Modelling trends and cycles in economic time series
Rearmament to the Rescue? New Estimates of the Impact of "Keynesian" Policies in 1930s' Britain
We report estimates of the fiscal multiplier for interwar Britain based on quarterly data, time-series econometrics, and "defense news." We find that the government expenditure multiplier was in the range 0.3 to 0.8, much lower than previous estimates. The scope for a Keynesian solution to recession was less than is generally supposed. We find that rearmament gave a smaller boost to real GDP than previously claimed. Rearmament may, however, have …
Considering the Counterfactual
We investigate a structural model of demographic-economic interactions for England during 1570 to 1850. We estimate that the annual rate of population growth consistent with constant real wages was 0.4% before 1760 but 1.5% thereafter. We find that exogenous shocks increased population growth dramatically in the early decades of the Industrial Revolution. Simulations of our model show that if these demographic shocks had occurred before the Indus…
Economics (21 works) · Macroeconomics (12 works) · Economic Growth and Productivity (10 works) · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact (10 works) · Economic Theory and Policy (9 works) · Econometrics (8 works) · Historical Economic and Social Studies (7 works) · Keynesian economics (6 works) · Political science (6 works) · Labour economics (5 works)