Predicting the Severity of Great Power War from Its Extent
Statistical Illusions, 1816-1990
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 10071460 |
|---|---|
| Authors | William Brian Moul (University of Waterloo) |
| Year | 1994 |
| Volume | 38 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 160-169 |
| Publication date | 1994-03-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of Conflict Resolution (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0022-0027 • E-ISSN: 1552-8766 |
| Publisher | SAGE Publishing (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1177/0022002794038001010 |
| OpenAlex | W2124853821 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 1 |
| References cited | 6 |
Shortly after Iraq invaded Kuwait in August 1990 and shortly before Operation Desert Storm in January 1991, Cioffi-Revilla forecast that the battle fatalities of an Iraq-United Nations war would be between 100,000 and a million or so, depending on the number of belligerents. The lower estimate presumes four states were to fight; and the higher one presumes ten states were to fight. Whatever the accuracy of the forecast, this article examines the historical reliability of the relationship on which the forecast rests. The apparent linear relationship between the extent and severity of great power war over 1816-1990 is illusory
Ancient history · Battle · Desert (philosophy · Development economics · Economic history · Economics · Economy · Geography · Great power · Meteorology · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Power (physics · Storm · Culture, Economy, and Development Studies · History · Law · Politics and Conflicts in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Middle East · World Systems and Global Transformations
| Unique citing works | 1 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,03 |
| Citation span | 1995 - 1995 (1) |
| Citation velocity | historical |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 1 |