A Macrosimulation Approach to the Investigation of Natural Fertility

Bibliographic Data

ID10969080
AuthorsJ Dennis Willigan (University of Utah, corresponding author), Geraldine P Mineau (University of Utah), Douglas L Anderton (University of Utah), Lee L Bean (University of Utah)
Year1982
Volume19
Issue2
Pages161-176
Publication date1982-05-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueDemography (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0070-3370 • E-ISSN: 1533-7790
PublisherDuke University Press (PUBLISHER • US)
DOI10.2307/2061188
OpenAlexW4300568976
LanguageEN
Citations received13
References cited14

This paper is part of a long-term investigation known as the Mormon Historical Demography Project. It examines the capability of a simulation model, originally proposed by John Bongaarts (1976), to fit the natural fertility pattern which characterized the mid-nineteenth century Mormon population. Application of this model permits estimates to be made of the historical timing and age-incidence of fertility limitation. A sensitivity analysis of the model’s parameters demonstrates that simple changes in the model’s proximate determinants of fertility, excluding contraceptive practices, would be insufficientto account for later transition effects. Thus the results successfully capture the dynamics underlying the Mormon natural fertility pattern as well as offer a framework for future modeling of the transition away from natural fertility

Archaeology · Demographic analysis · Demographic transition · Developed country · Family planning · Fertility · Geography · Historical demography · Natural (archaeology · Natural fertility · Population · Research methodology · Sociology · Total fertility rate · Demography · Gender, Labor, and Family Dynamics · Historical Studies on Reproduction, Gender, Health, and Societal Changes · Mormonism, Religion, and History