HIV and population dynamics
A general model and maximum-likelihood standards for East Africa
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 10969293 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Patrick Heuveline (0000-0001-9503-901X, Population Research Center, NORC, and The University of Chicago, 1155 East 60th Street, Chicago, IL 60637, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2003 |
| Volume | 40 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 217-245 |
| Publication date | 2003-05-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Demography (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0070-3370 • E-ISSN: 1533-7790 |
| Publisher | Duke University Press (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1353/dem.2003.0013 |
| PMID | 12846130 |
| OpenAlex | W2020350629 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 12 |
| References cited | 47 |
In high-prevalence populations, the HIV epidemic undermines the validity of past empirical models and related demographic techniques. A parsimonious model of HIV and population dynamics is presented here and fit to 46,000 observations, gathered from 11 East African populations. The fitted model simulates HIV and population dynamics with standard demographic inputs and only two additional parameters for the onset and scale of the epidemic. The underestimation of the general prevalence of HIV in samples of pregnant women and the fertility impact of HIV are examples of the dynamic interactions that demographic models must reproduce and are shown here to increase over time even with constant prevalence levels. As a result, the impact of HIV on population growth appears to have been underestimated by current population projections that ignore this dynamic
Fertility · Geography · Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV · Population · Population growth · Sociology · Adolescent Sexual and Reproductive Health · Demography · HIV/AIDS Impact and Responses · HIV/AIDS Research and Interventions · Medicine · Virology
Sexual network structure and the spread of HIV in Africa
The Economic Impact of HIV/Aids in Developing Countries
Reducing uncertainties in global HIV prevalence estimates
Measuring and correcting bias in indirect estimates of under-5 mortality in populations affected by HIV/Aids
The Surprising Global Variation in Replacement Fertility
Adult mortality in sub-Saharan Africa
The Relationship History Calendar
Intergenerational Transfers in the Era of HIV/Aids
The Likoma Network Study
More on the Cohort-Component Model of Population Projection in the Context of HIV/Aids
Estimates of Age-Specific Reductions in HIV Prevalence in Uganda
Modelling the demographic impact of HIV/Aids in South Africa and the likely impact of interventions
Sexual mixing patterns and sex-differentials in teenage exposure to HIV infection in rural Zimbabwe
Will HIV become a major determinant of fertility in Sub‐Saharan Africa
Aids and population growth in sub-Saharan Africa
The Utility of Empirical Bayes Methods for Comparing Regression Structures in Small Subsamples
Reproductive Decision Making and the HIV/Aids Epidemic in Zimbabwe
Global Trends in Aids Mortality
Demography, Measuring and Modeling Population Processes
| Unique citing works | 12 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,52 |
| Citation span | 2003 - 2019 (17) |
| Citation velocity | historical |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 12 |