The dynamics of smallpox epidemics in Britain, 1550–1800

Bibliographic Data

ID10970601
AuthorsS R Duncan (0000-0002-9525-7305, Control Systems Centre, Department of Electrical Engineering and Electronics, UMIST, PO Box 88, Manchester, M60 1QD, UK, corresponding author), Susan Scott (0000-0003-1414-8228, University of Liverpool), C J Duncan (0000-0003-4181-2315, University of Liverpool)
Year1993
Volume30
Issue3
Pages405-423
Publication date1993-08-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueDemography (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0070-3370 • E-ISSN: 1533-7790
PublisherDuke University Press (PUBLISHER • US)
DOI10.2307/2061648
PMID8405606
OpenAlexW2075697666
LanguageEN
Citations received18
References cited36

Time-series analysis, a valuable tool in studying population dynamics, has been used to determine the periodicity of smallpox epidemics during the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries in two contrasting representative situations: 1) London, a large city where smallpox was endemic, and 2) Penrith, a small rural town. The interepidemic period was found to be two years in London and five years in Penrith. Equations governing the dynamics of epidemics predict 1) a two-year periodicity and 2) that oscillatory epidemics die out quickly. It is suggested that epidemics were maintained by a periodic variation in susceptibility linked either to a five-year cycle of malnutrition or to an annual cycle. Computer modeling shows how the very different patterns of epidemics are related to population size and to the magnitude of the oscillation in susceptibility

Geography · Smallpox · Sociology · Vaccination · Birth, Development, and Health · Climate Change and Health Impacts · Demography · Health and Conflict Studies · Medicine · Virology