Decision Processes for Low Probability Events
Policy Implications
Datos Bibliográficos
| ID | 11680507 |
|---|---|
| Autores | Colin F Camerer (0000-0003-4049-1871, autor de correspondencia), Howard Kunreuther |
| Año | 1989 |
| Volumen | 8 |
| Número | 4 |
| Páginas | 565-565 |
| Fecha de publicación | 1989-01-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Sí |
| Open Access | No |
| Tipo | ARTICLE |
| Revista | Journal of Policy Analysis and Management (JOURNAL) |
| Identificadores de la revista | ISSN: 0276-8739 • E-ISSN: 1520-6688 |
| Editorial | Wiley (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.2307/3325045 |
| OpenAlex | W2044098639 |
| Idioma | EN |
| Citas recibidas | 74 |
| Referencias citadas | 28 |
This survey describes the impact of judgements and choices about low probability, high consequence events on the policymaking process. Empirical evidence indicates that normative models of choice, such as expected utility theory, are inadequate descriptions of individual choices. The ambiguity of low probabilities also affects decisions in ways that are not normative. Further, people exhibit biases in judgments about risks and probabilities. These findings have stimulated development of new theories, such as prospect theory and generalized utility theories incorporating attributes such as regret. The authors survey many of these empirical results and explore their implications for policy. They consider the role of information, economic incentives, compensation, and regulation in inducing socially desirable effects through the reframing of outcomes. They suggest that surveys and experiments can help analysts better understand the decision process for low probability events and design more effective public policies
Actuarial science · Ambiguity · Cognitive reframing · Decision maker · Decision theory · Economics · Empirical evidence · Empirical research · Expected utility hypothesis · Incentive · Management science · Mathematical economics · Microeconomics · Normative · Political science · Positive economics · Public economics · Regret · Computer Science · Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics · Economic and Environmental Valuation · Psychology · Risk Perception and Management · Social Psychology
Evolutionary modelling of the macro-economic impacts of catastrophic flood events
Disaster Risk and Vulnerability
Manuel d'évaluation de la biodiversité
Mitigating disaster losses through insurance
Dependence of flood risk perceptions on socioeconomic and objective risk factors
Negative Tail Events, Emotions and Risk Taking
Human behavior in the context of low-probability high-impact events
How do floods affect insurance demand? Evidence from flood insurance take-up in Japan
Covid-19 Morbidity, Vaccine Side Effects, and Vaccine Hesitancy among African Americans
Be prepared! Local politicians’ proclivity for local government adaptive capacity building in response to Covid-19
Obstacles to harnessing analytic innovations in foreign policy analysis
Partial ex-post verifiability and unique implementation of social choice functions
Trust and robotics
Managing Uncertainty in Crisis
Disaster Resilience
Households' Perceived Personal Risk and Responses in a Multihazard Environment
The Role of the Affect and Availability Heuristics in Risk Communication
Impact of Physicians' Perceptions of Malpractice and Adaptive Changes on Intention to Cease Obstetrical Practice
Age Effects and Heuristics in Decision Making
The impact of environmental risk information on beliefs and home insurance decisions
Using word embeddings to generate data-driven human agent decision-making from natural language
An Exploration of the Link between Development, Economic Growth, and Natural Risk
Sound the alarm! Updating beliefs and degradative cyber operations
The Covid-19 pandemic
Developing host community siting packages for waste facilities
Contemplating the Role of Precision and Range in Homeland Security Policy Analysis
Behavioral Public Administration ad fontes
The risk of surprise in energy technology costs
Rural Households’ Livelihood Capital, Risk Perception, and Willingness to Purchase Earthquake Disaster Insurance
Application of Risk Concepts to Wildlife Management
The Ostrich Paradox
Human factor failure and the comparative structure of jobs
The value of levee protection to commercial properties
Climate change in a public goods game
Two world views on carbon revenues
Did Ohio’s Vaccine Lottery Increase Vaccination Rates? A Pre-Registered, Synthetic Control Study
Applying a problem-solving scenario in risk communication of low probability events
The psychological foundations of rational ignorance
Perceived earthquake risk in housing purchases
Law and the Labor Market
To insure or not to insure? Analysis of foresters' willingness-to-pay for fire and storm insurance
Thinking the unthinkable – the end of the Dutch river dike system? Exploring a new safety concept for the river management
The stability of risk and benefit perceptions
Factors affecting risk mitigation revisited
Imagining worse than reality
The effect of uncertainty on ‘risk rationalizing’ decisions
Policy compliance and deterrence mechanism in the sharing economy
The political economy of natural disaster damage
The double-edged sword of learning from disasters
Experience is not enough
Salience Versus Proportional Reasoning
Using Experimental Economics to Examine Wildfire Insurance and Averting Decisions in the Wildland–Urban Interface
A role for capital markets in natural disasters
Earthquake Propensity and the Politics of Mortality Prevention
Natural Disaster, Poverty, and Development
Risk preferences and pesticide use by cotton farmers in China
Not Equitable, Not Efficient
Coercive versus cooperative policies
Assumptions, Behavioral Findings, and Policy Analysis
JPAM reaches majority
Addressing Public Risks
The behaviour of property prices when affected by infrequent floods
Disaster Mitigation and Insurance
When the Claim Hits
Bear Any Burden? How Democracies Minimize the Costs of War
Greening America's Skylines
The Micro-Foundations of International Relations Theory
Major Earthquake Experience and Presently-Gratifying Expenditures
Disaster risk reduction in developing countries
First-Hand Experience and Second-Hand Information
Perceiving Mortality Decline
Addressing Public Risks
Repetitive flood victims and acceptance of Fema mitigation offers
Silver Spoons and Platinum Plans
Decisions with Multiple Objectives
Willingness to Pay and Compensation Demanded
I knew it would happen
Extensional versus intuitive reasoning
Le Comportement de l'Homme Rationnel devant le Risque
Contingent weighting in judgment and choice.
Process descriptions of decision making
The Dual Theory of Choice under Risk
Effort and Accuracy in Choice
Task complexity and contingent processing in decision making
Frames of Mind in Intertemporal Choice
A theory of anticipated utility
Status quo bias in decision making
Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms
Toward a positive theory of consumer choice
Informing and Educating the Public About Risk
Facility Siting and Public Opposition
Acceptable Risk
The social costs of the demand for quantification
Insurance incentives and seat belt use
Seat belt use laws and occupant crash protection in the United States
The Utility of Wealth
Private Pensions and Savings
A Generalization of the Quasilinear Mean with Applications to the Measurement of Income Inequality and Decision Theory Resolving the Allais Paradox
Regret Theory
Unrealistic optimism about future life events
Availability
| Obras citantes distintas | 74 |
|---|---|
| Citas por año | 2,11 |
| Intervalo de citas | 1991 - 2026 (36) |
| Velocidad de citación | current |
| Altamente citado | No |
| Tipos de cita | Neutras: 73 |