Sequencing the Steps to War

Bibliographic Data

ID11895221
AuthorsDouglas B Atkinson (0000-0003-4628-1664, Brigham Young University, corresponding author), Andrew P Owsiak (0000-0001-7938-9810, University of Georgia), Joshua Jackson (0000-0003-4972-9719), Joshua Lee Monogan Jackson (0000-0003-1943-7168), Rebecca Buechler
Year2024
Volume50
Issue5
Pages780-808
Publication date2024-08-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessNo
TypeARTICLE
VenueInternational Interactions (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0305-0629 • E-ISSN: 1547-7444
PublisherTaylor & Francis (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1080/03050629.2024.2378779
OpenAlexW4401205660
LanguageEN
References cited38

According to the steps-to-war theory, the probability of war between two states rises as the involved states take four distinct steps—namely, initiate a territorial disagreement, enter a rivalry relationship, secure defensive allies, and initiate an arms race with one another. Our study explores the relationships between these four steps in greater detail. In particular, we ask whether the steps to war might unfold in a predictable (modal) sequence. After demonstrating that the theory contains the elements needed to think about the steps to war as a sequence of events, we theorize a modal steps-to-war sequence and derive a series of predictions about it. We then evaluate these predictions through path analysis (i.e. a structural equation model). The results not only confirm the existence of a modal sequence, but also overwhelmingly support the steps-to-war theory’s predictions, some of which we formalize and investigate for the first time. Most notably, we uncover evidence that territorial disagreements function as an underlying cause of war that drives the entire steps-to-war process. Contests over territory increase the probability of war both directly as well as indirectly, through the additional steps to war they encourage

Economics · Modal · Path (computing · Political science · Rivalry · Sequence (biology · Series (stratigraphy · Sociology · Spanish Civil War · Computer Science · International Relations and Foreign Policy · Law · Peacebuilding and International Security · Political Conflict and Governance