Is the People's Republic of China's current slowdown a cyclical downturn or a long-term trend? A productivity-based analysis
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 12549834 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Chong-En Bai (Tsinghua University), Chong‐En Bai (Tsinghua University), Qiong Zhang (0000-0003-2717-7773, Renmin University of China, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2016 |
| Volume | 22 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 29-46 |
| Publication date | 2016-12-08 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1354-7860 • E-ISSN: 1469-9648 |
| Publisher | Routledge (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1080/13547860.2016.1261438 |
| OpenAlex | W2560327954 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 4 |
| References cited | 31 |
Whether the People's Republic of China's (PRC) economic slowdown since the 2008 financial crisis is a cyclical downturn or a long-run trend has important policy implications. As productivity is the determinant factor for long-term economic growth and the PRC watches soaring labor cost while no serious unemployment recently, this article tries to understand its slowdown from the supply side. Based on provincial panel data, it first identifies the determinants of productivity growth and then uses counterfactual analysis to simulate effects of the PRC's policy-induced investment boom on its economic growth. It finds that economic openness enhances productivity, whereas economies at higher stages of development on average have lower productivity growth. Second, productivity of economies accumulating more stock of inventory grows more slowly, while the opposite is observed for those with higher labor involvement rates. Third, government size and investment rate both have significantly negative effects on productivity growth. Finally, the diminishing late-mover advantage and the growth in investment rate are both major contributors to the current decline in the PRC's productivity growth. The current economic slowdown does not seem to be a cyclical downturn. Indeed, further reforms are needed to stabilize the PRC's growth
Economic growth · Economics · Investment (military · Labour economics · Macroeconomics · Monetary economics · Panel data · Productivity · Recession · Slowdown · Total factor productivity · Economic Growth and Productivity · Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth · Regional Economic and Spatial Analysis
Why growth rates differ
Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data
Chapter 7 Growth Theory through the Lens of Development Economics
The role of human capital in economic development evidence from aggregate cross-country data
The Economic Theory of Index Numbers and the Measurement of Input, Output, and Productivity
The Explanation of Productivity Change
Policy distortions and aggregate productivity with heterogeneous establishments
Human capital and growth
Measuring the efficiency of decision making units
Unit root tests in panel data
Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels
Misallocation and Manufacturing TFP in China and India
Studies in Income and Wealth.
A Multitask Theory of State Enterprise Reform
Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Function
Creative accounting or creative destruction? Firm-level productivity growth in Chinese manufacturing
Why Growth Rates Differ
A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth
China's Economic Growth
| Unique citing works | 4 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,44 |
| Citation span | 2017 - 2026 (10) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 4 |