Southern African Climate Change
Processes, Models, and Projections
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 12929697 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Callum Munday (0000-0002-6436-5813, University of Oxford, corresponding author), Richard Washington (0000-0003-2521-4614, University of Oxford), Sebastian Engelstaedter (0000-0001-9315-580X, University of Oxford), Marcia Zilli (0000-0003-1670-8567, University of Oxford), Sophie Harbord (0000-0003-4477-5505, University of Oxford), Charles Knight (0000-0002-4356-0994, University of Oxford), Kitty Attwood (0009-0006-1652-947X, University of Oxford), Neil Hart (0000-0002-6902-8699, University of Oxford) |
| Year | 2025 |
| Volume | 16 |
| Issue | 5 |
| Publication date | 2025-09-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1757-7780 • E-ISSN: 1757-7799 |
| Publisher | Wiley (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1002/wcc.70025 |
| OpenAlex | W7087785074 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 221 |
Southern Africa, along with the Mediterranean and eastern South America, is one of three major land regions projected to dry in the future. Confidence in the drying trend relies on a clear understanding of the regional climate and evaluation of the climate models used for projections. This paper reviews our understanding of southern African climate and evaluates the performance of successive climate model generations. A key finding is improved confidence in projections of early summer drying. The drying results from a delayed seasonal cycle, with regional features such as the Congo Air Boundary and heat lows increasing in frequency in the future. Future drying is matched by emerging observed trends indicating large temperature increases and drying in early summer, in addition to projections of increases in extreme rainfall, heatwaves, and dry spells. There is greater uncertainty in climate changes in the core rainy season (December to February), in part due to systematic climate model biases in this season, which have worsened through model generations. Model biases are compounded by a lack of in situ observations of key regional climate features, including heat lows, tropical lows, and mesoscale convective systems. The review recommends a focus on quantifying changes in circulation features and rainfall systems, which are well known but lack comprehensive assessment of trends and future projections. The future of tropical cyclone risk is a priority, especially given the increase in the frequency of intense tropical cyclones in the Mozambique Channel over the last 40 years. This article is categorized under: Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Modern Climate Change
Climate change · Climate model · General Circulation Model · Mediterranean climate · Mesoscale meteorology · Tropical cyclone · Tropics · Wet season · Aquatic Ecosystems and Biodiversity · Malaria Research and Control · Mosquito-borne diseases and control
Tropical cyclones and climate change
Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble
Migrations and dynamics of the intertropical convergence zone
The WCRP Cmip3 Multimodel Dataset
Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years
The climate hazards infrared precipitation with stations—a new environmental record for monitoring extremes
The International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS)
The ERA5 global reanalysis
Extreme Temperature Events (ETEs) in South Africa
On the use and misuse of climate change projections in international development
A perfect storm
| Citation velocity | historical |
|---|---|
| Highly cited | No |