Forecasting Changes in Religiosity and Existential Security with an Agent-Based Model

Bibliographic Data

ID15347932
AuthorsRoss Gore (0000-0003-4065-6146, Dominion University College, corresponding author), Carlos Miguel Lemos (0000-0002-1419-4657, University of Agder), Carlos Lemos, F Leron Shults (0000-0002-0588-6977, University of Agder), Wesley J Wildman (0000-0002-7571-1259)
Year2018
Volume21
Issue1
Publication date2018-01-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueJournal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 1460-7425 • E-ISSN: 1460-7425
PublisherJournal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.18564/jasss.3596
OpenAlexW2786879528
LanguageEN
Citations received20
References cited27

We employ existing data sets and agent-based modeling to forecast changes in religiosity and existential security among a collective of individuals over time. Existential security reflects the extent of economic, socioeconomic and human development provided by society. Our model includes agents in social networks interacting with one another based on the education level of the agents, the religious practices of the agents, and each agent's existential security within their natural and social environments. The data used to inform the values and relationships among these variables is based on rigorous statistical analysis of the International Social Survey Programme Religion Module (ISSP) and the Human Development Report (HDR). We conduct an evaluation that demonstrates, for the countries and time periods studied, that our model provides a more accurate forecast of changes in existential security and religiosity than two alternative approaches. The improved accuracy is largely due to the inclusion of social networks with educational homophily which alters the way in which religiosity and existential security change in the model. These dynamics grow societies where two individuals with the same initial religious practices (or belief In God, or supernatural beliefs) evolve di erently based on the educational backgrounds of the individuals with which they surround themselves. Finally, we discuss the limitations of our model and provide direction for future work

Existentialism · Homophily · Political science · Population · Religiosity · Social security · Socioeconomic status · Sociology · Computer Science · Law · Psychology · Religion and Society Interactions · Religion, Society, and Development · Religion, Spirituality, and Psychology · Social Psychology