Excess Deaths and Hospital Admissions for Covid-19 Due to a Late Implementation of the Lockdown in Italy

Bibliographic Data

ID15500656
AuthorsRaffaele Palladino (0000-0002-3437-812X, Imperial College London, corresponding author), Jordy Bollon (0000-0003-1825-3682, Università degli Studi del Piemonte Orientale “Amedeo Avogadro”), Luca Ragazzoni (0000-0002-2528-4375, Università degli Studi del Piemonte Orientale “Amedeo Avogadro”), Francesco Barone-Adesi (0000-0003-1550-436X, Università degli Studi del Piemonte Orientale “Amedeo Avogadro”)
Year2020
Volume17
Issue16
Pages5644-5644
Publication date2020-08-05
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueInternational Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 1661-7827 • E-ISSN: 1660-4601
PublisherMultidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (PUBLISHER • CH)
DOI10.3390/ijerph17165644
PMID32764381
OpenAlexW3047346774
LanguageEN
Citations received6
References cited9

In Italy, the COVID-19 epidemic curve started to flatten when the health system had already exceeded its capacity, raising concerns that the lockdown was indeed delayed. The aim of this study was to evaluate the health effects of late implementation of the lockdown in Italy. Using national data on the daily number of COVID-19 cases, we first estimated the effect of the lockdown, employing an interrupted time series analysis. Second, we evaluated the effect of an early lockdown on the trend of new cases, creating a counterfactual scenario where the intervention was implemented one week in advance. We then predicted the corresponding number of intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, non-ICU admissions, and deaths. Finally, we compared results under the actual and counterfactual scenarios. An early implementation of the lockdown would have avoided about 126,000 COVID-19 cases, 54,700 non-ICU admissions, 15,600 ICU admissions, and 12,800 deaths, corresponding to 60% (95%CI: 55% to 64%), 52% (95%CI: 46% to 57%), 48% (95%CI: 42% to 53%), and 44% (95%CI: 38% to 50%) reduction, respectively. We found that the late implementation of the lockdown in Italy was responsible for a substantial proportion of hospital admissions and deaths associated with the COVID-19 pandemic

2019-20 coronavirus outbreak · Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19 · Counterfactual thinking · Infectious disease (medical specialty · Intensive care medicine · Intensive care unit · Interrupted Time Series Analysis · Medical emergency · Outbreak · Pandemic · Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2 · Statistics · COVID-19 and healthcare impacts · COVID-19 Clinical Research Studies · COVID-19 epidemiological studies · Demography · Medicine · Psychology · Emergency Medicine · Pediatrics · Virology