Future changes in climatic water balance determine potential for transformational shifts in Australian fire regimes
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15545347 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Matthias M Boer (0000-0001-6362-4572, Western Sydney University, corresponding author), David M J S Bowman (0000-0001-8075-124X, University of Tasmania), Brett P Murphy (0000-0002-8230-3069, The University of Melbourne), Geoffrey J Cary (0000-0002-6386-1751, Australian National University), Mark A Cochrane (0000-0002-4573-568X, South Dakota State University), R J Fensham (0000-0003-3658-5867, The University of Queensland), Meg A Krawchuk (0000-0002-3240-3117, Simon Fraser University), Owen Price (0000-0001-5327-568X, University of Wollongong), Owen F Price, Víctor Resco de Dios (0000-0002-5721-1656, Western Sydney University), Richard J Williams (0000-0002-9558-9588, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation), Ross A Bradstock (0000-0002-6904-2394, University of Wollongong) |
| Year | 2016 |
| Volume | 11 |
| Issue | 6 |
| Pages | 065002-065002 |
| Publication date | 2016-06-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/11/6/065002 |
| OpenAlex | W2415843044 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 8 |
| References cited | 54 |
Most studies of climate change effects on fire regimes assume a gradual reorganization of pyrogeographic patterns and have not considered the potential for transformational changes in the climate-vegetation-fire relationships underlying continental-scale fire regimes. Here, we model current fire activity levels in Australia as a function of mean annual actual evapotranspiration (E) and potential evapotranspiration (E ), as proxies for fuel productivity and fuel drying potential. We distinguish two domains in space according to the dominant constraint on fire activity being either fuel productivity (PL-type fire) or fuel dryness (DL-type fire) and show that the affinity to these domains is related to fuel type. We propose to assess the potential for transformational shifts in fire type from the difference in the affinity to either domain under a baseline climate and projected future climate. Under the projected climate changes potential for a transformational shift from DL- to PL-type fire was predicted for mesic savanna woodland in the north and for eucalypt forests in coastal areas of the south-west and along the Continental Divide in the south-east of the continent. Potential for a shift from PL- to DL-type fire was predicted for a narrow zone of eucalypt savanna woodland in the north-east
Biology · Climate change · Climatology · Dryness · Ecosystem · Evapotranspiration · Fire regime · Grassland · Plant functional type · Productivity · Vegetation (pathology · Vegetation type · Woodland · Environmental Science · Fire effects on ecosystems · Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics · Tree-ring climate responses · Ecology · Geology
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The 2019/2020 mega-fires exposed Australian ecosystems to an unprecedented extent of high-severity fire
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Machine learning-based integration of large-scale climate drivers can improve the forecast of seasonal rainfall probability in Australia
Seasonal changes in the human alteration of fire regimes beyond the climate forcing
Assessing climate change vulnerability and its implications for ecosystem service provision
Analysis of daily, monthly, and annual burned area using the fourth‐generation global fire emissions database (GFED4)
Global fire emissions and the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural, and peat fires (1997–2009)
Global Pyrogeography
Learning to coexist with wildfire
Fire in the Earth System
The representative concentration pathways
A gentle introduction to quantile regression for ecologists
Novel climates, no-analog communities, and ecological surprises
Enhanced Australian carbon sink despite increased wildfire during the 21st century
| Unique citing works | 8 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,89 |
| Citation span | 2017 - 2025 (9) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 8 |