Impact of Indian Ocean Dipole on Atlantic Niño predictive skill
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15549206 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Ao Liu (0009-0003-5810-5729, China Meteorological Administration), Jinqing Zuo (0000-0002-7429-9303, China Meteorological Administration, corresponding author), Ben Tian (China Meteorological Administration), Bo Lu (0000-0002-3807-7869, China Meteorological Administration) |
| Year | 2023 |
| Volume | 18 |
| Issue | 7 |
| Pages | 074015-074015 |
| Publication date | 2023-06-07 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/acdc3c |
| OpenAlex | W4379743904 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 1 |
| References cited | 52 |
Recent studies suggest that tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, especially those associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), may trigger Atlantic Niño through atmospheric teleconnection. However, it remains unclear whether the former has an impact on the prediction skill of the latter. This work applies hindcasts from 21 operational seasonal forecast systems based on dynamical climate models to verify the impact of the IOD in boreal autumn on the predictive skill of the Atlantic Niño in the following winter. The results indicate that the prediction skills of both the IOD and Atlantic Niño show pronounced seasonality, with a peak in the target season of boreal autumn for the former and in the following winter for the latter. The models with a stronger connection between the boreal autumn IOD and the following winter Atlantic Niño appear to have a higher skill in predicting the latter when compared to the weaker connection models. This leads to a significant in-phase relationship between the prediction skills of the boreal winter Atlantic Niño and the strength of the IOD–Atlantic Niño connection among the models. When compared to the weaker connection models, the stronger connection models tend to simulate a warmer climatological mean of SST in the tropical Indian Ocean during boreal autumn and winter. The warmer climatological mean of SST benefits a stronger atmospheric circulation response to the underlying SST forcing associated with the IOD. This suggests that mean state bias in the tropical Indian Ocean plays a role in modulating the strength of the simulated IOD–Atlantic Niño connection and thus prediction skill of the Atlantic Niño in boreal winter
Boreal · Climatology · El Niño Southern Oscillation · Forcing (mathematics · Geography · Indian ocean · Indian Ocean Dipole · Sea surface temperature · Teleconnection · Tropical Atlantic · Climate variability and models · Environmental Science · Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes · Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research · Geology · Oceanography
The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and its relation to rainfall and river flows in the continental U.S.
A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean
Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century
Tests of Equality Between Sets of Coefficients in Two Linear Regressions
The ERA5 global reanalysis
Equatorial Atlantic variability—Modes, mechanisms, and global teleconnections
| Unique citing works | 1 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 1 |
| Citation span | 2025 - 2025 (1) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 1 |