Strengthening national capacities for pandemic preparedness

A cross-country analysis of Covid-19 cases and deaths

Bibliographic Data

ID16762912
AuthorsDavid Duong (0000-0002-5386-4502, Harvard University, corresponding author), David B Duong (Harvard Medical School), Andrew J King (0000-0002-2789-2550, Harvard Medical School), Karen A Grépin (0000-0003-4368-0045, University of Hong Kong, Pok Fu Lam, Hong Kong SAR, China), Li Yang Hsu (0000-0002-0396-066X, National University of Singapore), Jeremy Fy Lim (National University of Singapore), Christine Phillips (0009-0001-2094-7467, College of Health and Medicine, Australian National University Medical School, Canberra, ACT, Australia), Truc Thanh Thai (0000-0003-2512-8281, University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City), Indumathi Venkatachalam (0000-0001-6869-1360, Department of Infectious Diseases, Singapore General Hospital, Singapore), Florian Vogt (0000-0003-2686-3149, National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Research School of Population Health, College of Health and Medicine, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia), Esabelle Lo Yan Yam (0000-0002-6349-3856, College of Health and Medicine, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia), Stephanie Bazley (College of Health and Medicine, Australian National University Medical School, Canberra, ACT, Australia), Lydia Dai-Jia Chang (School of Public Health, University of Hong Kong, Pok Fu Lam, Hong Kong SAR, China), Rachel Flaugh (Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA), Rachel A Flaugh (Harvard University), Baily Nagle (Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA), Johanan Dravium Ponniah (National University of Singapore), Penny Sun (Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA), Nicolas K Trad (0000-0001-7260-176X, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA), Donald M Berwick (0000-0001-9507-4157, Institute for Healthcare Improvement, Boston, MA, USA)
Year2022
Volume37
Issue1
Pages55-64
Publication date2022-01-13
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueHealth Policy and Planning (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0268-1080 • E-ISSN: 1460-2237
PublisherOxford University Press (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1093/heapol/czab122
PMID34608933
OpenAlexW3203839785
LanguageEN
Citations received13
References cited16

The International Health Regulations—State Party Annual Reporting (IHR-SPAR) index and the Global Health Security Index (GHSI) have been developed to aid in strengthening national capacities for pandemic preparedness. We examined the relationship between country-level rankings on these two indices, along with two additional indices (the Universal Health Coverage Service Coverage Index and World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicator (n = 195)) and compared them to the country-level reported coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases and deaths (Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 Dashboard) through 17 June 2020. Ordinary least squares regression models were used to compare weekly reported COVID-19 cases and death rates per million in the first 12 weeks of the pandemic between countries classified as low, middle and high ranking on each index while controlling for country socio-demographic information. Countries with higher GHSI and IHR-SPAR index scores experienced fewer reported COVID-19 cases and deaths but only for the first 8 weeks after the country’s first case. For the GHSI, this association was further limited to countries with populations below 69.4 million. For both the GHSI and IHR-SPAR, countries with a higher sub-index score in human resources for pandemic preparedness reported fewer COVID-19 cases and deaths in the first 8 weeks after the country’s first reported case. The Universal Health Coverage Service Coverage Index and Worldwide Governance Indicator country-level rankings were not associated with COVID-19 outcomes. The associations between GHSI and IHR-SPAR scores and COVID-19 outcomes observed in this study demonstrate that these two indices, although imperfect, may have value, especially in countries with a population under 69.4 million people for the GHSI. Preparedness indices may have value; however, they should continue to be evaluated as policy makers seek to better prepare for future global public health crises

2019-20 coronavirus outbreak · Betacoronavirus · Business · Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) · Developing country · Disease · Economic growth · Economics · Environmental health · Infectious disease (medical specialty) · Medical emergency · Outbreak · Pandemic · Political science · Preparedness · Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) · COVID-19 epidemiological studies · Medicine · Viral Infections and Outbreaks Research · Virology · Zoonotic diseases and public health