The Holocene Temperature Conundrum

Bibliographic Data

ID21348772
AuthorsYūsuke Yokoyama (0000-0001-7869-5891, Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo), Yasuto WATANABE (0000-0003-2580-8973, Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency), Shoko Hirabayashi (0000-0002-6120-9110, Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo), Kazumi OZAKI (0000-0003-1121-8921, Institute of Science Tokyo), Stephen P Obrochta (0000-0001-9632-0372, Akita University)
Year2025
Volume134
Issue4
Pages361-378
Publication date2025-08-25
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueJournal of Geography (Chigaku Zasshi) (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0022-135X • E-ISSN: 1884-0884
PublisherTokyo Geographical Society (PUBLISHER • JP)
DOI10.5026/jgeography.134.361
OpenAlexW4414172144
LanguageEN
Citations received2
References cited109

The Holocene is the current geological era, which started 11,700 years before present and is divided into three stages: 8, 200, and 4,200 years before present. The early stage is the Greenlandian, the middle stage is the Northgrippian, and the late stage is the Meghalayan. According to proxy-based climate reconstructions, the global mean surface temperature during the Greenlandian and the Northgrippain was warmer than the Pre-industrial (PI). However, most model-based reconstructions, including those used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), indicate it was colder than PI. This is known as the Holocene temperature conundrum (HTC), which raises concerns regarding the model's ability to predict future climate change. The HTC is introduced, current knowledge is reviewed, and future direction of research is discussed

Climate change · Climate system · Current (fluid) · Holocene · Holocene climatic optimum · Stage (stratigraphy) · Marine and environmental studies · Multidisciplinary Science and Engineering Research