The Returns to Education
A Meta‐Study
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 21358003 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Gregory Clark (0000-0001-6972-4478, Department of Economics University of Southern Denmark Odense Denmark), Christian Alexander Abildgaard Nielsen (0009-0002-3133-3345, Department of Economics University of Southern Denmark Odense Denmark) |
| Year | 2026 |
| Volume | 79 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Pages | 608-628 |
| Publication date | 2026-08-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Kyklos (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0023-5962 • E-ISSN: 1467-6435 |
| Publisher | Wiley (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1111/kykl.70041 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 1 |
| References cited | 91 |
There have been many studies estimating the causal effect of an additional year of education on earnings. The majority employ administrative changes in the minimum school‐leaving age as the mechanism allowing identification. Here, we survey 79 such estimates. However, remarkably, while the majority of these studies find substantial gains from education, a number of well‐grounded studies find no effect. The average return from these studies still implies substantial average gains from an extra year of education: an average of 8.2%. But the pattern of reported returns shows clear evidence of publication biases: omission of studies where the return was not statistically significantly above 0, and where the estimated return was negative. Correcting for these omitted studies, the implied average causal returns to an extra year of schooling will be only in the range 0%–3
Comparable Estimates of Returns to Schooling around the World
The Causal Effect of Education on Earnings
Income, Schooling, and Ability
Valid t -ratio Inference for IV
Compulsory Education and the Benefits of Schooling
The Returns to Education
Meta-regression approximations to reduce publication selection bias
The Returns to College Admission for Academically Marginal Students
How Large Are Human-Capital Externalities? Evidence from Compulsory Schooling Laws
Beyond Publication Bias
Bias in meta-analysis detected by a simple, graphical test
Education as opportunity? The causal effect of education on labor market outcomes in Jordan
Revisiting Sweden's comprehensive school reform
Returns to Schooling in Thailand
Educational Reform, Ability, and Family Background
Estimating Average and Local Average Treatment Effects of Education when Compulsory Schooling Laws Really Matter
Zero Returns to Compulsory Schooling in Germany
Is Extending Compulsory Schooling Alone Enough to Raise Earnings? Evidence from French and British Compulsory Schooling Laws
Wheat From Chaff
What Drives Social Returns to Education? A Meta-Analysis
The Cultural Revolution and returns to schooling in China
Endowments and the Allocation of Schooling in the Family and in the Marriage Market
Rigorous Large-Scale Educational RCTs Are Often Uninformative
Heterogeneity across Families in the Impact of Compulsory Schooling Laws
The Power of Bias in Economics Research
The Impact of Length of the School Year on Student Performance and Earnings
The Null Result Penalty
Forced to be Rich? Returns to Compulsory Schooling in Britain
Changes in Compulsory Schooling, Education and the Distribution of Wages in Europe
Does Compulsory School Attendance Affect Schooling and Earnings
Priceless
Comparing meta-analyses and preregistered multiple-laboratory replication projects
| Unique citing works | 1 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 1 |
| Citation span | 2026 - 2026 (1) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 1 |