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Analysing Covid-19 outcomes in the context of the 2019 Global Health Security (GHS) Index

Bibliographic Data

ID21879968
AuthorsS Rose (0009-0002-5908-634X, Johns Hopkins University, corresponding author), Sophie M Rose (Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA), Michael Paterra (Impact Technology Development (United States)), Christopher R Isaac (Nuclear Threat Initiative), Christopher Isaac (Nuclear Threat Initiative, Washington, DC, USA), Jessica Bell (0000-0002-3433-0265, Nuclear Threat Initiative), Amanda Stucke (0000-0002-2662-2313, Impact Technology Development (United States)), Arnold Hagens (0000-0002-9087-8719, Triangulate Health Ltd, South Yorkshire, UK), Sarah Tyrrell (Impact Technology Development (United States)), Michael Guterbock (Impact Technology Development (United States)), Jennifer B Nuzzo (0000-0002-7137-6625, Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security)
Year2021
Volume6
Issue12
Pagese007581
Publication date2021-12-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueBMJ Global Health (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 2059-7908 • E-ISSN: 2059-7908
PublisherBMJ (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1136/bmjgh-2021-007581
PMID34893478
OpenAlexW4200214747
LanguageEN
Citations received15
References cited21

INTRODUCTION: The Global Health Security Index benchmarks countries' capacities to carry out the functions necessary to prevent, detect and respond to biological threats. The COVID-19 pandemic served as an opportunity to evaluate whether the Index contained the correct array of variables that influence countries' abilities to respond to these threats; assess additional variables that may influence preparedness; and examine how the impact of preparedness components change during public health crises. METHODS: Linear regression models were examined to determine the relationship between excess mortality per capita for the first 500 days of countries' COVID-19 pandemic and internal Index variables, as well as external variables including social cohesion; island status; perceived corruption; elderly population size; previous epidemic experience; stringency of non-pharmaceutical interventions; and social and political polarisation. RESULTS: COVID-19 outcomes were significantly associated with sociodemographic, political and governance variables external to the 2019 Index: social cohesion, reduction in social polarisation and reduced perceptions of corruption were consistently correlated with reduced excess mortality throughout the pandemic. The association of other variables assessed by the Index, like epidemiological workforce robustness, changed over time. Fixed country features, including geographic connectedness, larger elderly population and lack of prior coronavirus outbreak experience were detrimental to COVID-19 outcomes. Finally, there was evidence that countries that lacked certain capacities were able to develop these over the course of the pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: Additional sociodemographic, political and governance variables should be included in future indices to improve their ability to characterise preparedness. Fixed characteristics, while not directly addressable, are useful for establishing countries' inherent risk profile and can motivate those at greater risk to invest in preparedness. Particular components of preparedness vary in their impact on outcomes over the course of the pandemic, which may inform resource direction during ongoing crises. Future research should seek to further characterise time-dependent impacts as additional COVID-19 outcome data become available

Development economics · Disease · Economics · Environmental health · Pandemic · Population · Preparedness · Public health · COVID-19 epidemiological studies · Global Security and Public Health · Medicine · Viral Infections and Outbreaks Research

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Unique citing works15
Citations per year3,75
Citation span2022 - 2026 (5)
Citation velocitycurrent
Highly citedNo
Citation typesNeutral: 14
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