A Contribution to the Study of Actuarial and Individual Methods of Prediction
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 2201634 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Theodore R Sarbin (corresponding author) |
| Year | 1943 |
| Volume | 48 |
| Issue | 5 |
| Pages | 593-602 |
| Publication date | 1943-03-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | American Journal of Sociology (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0002-9602 • E-ISSN: 1537-5390 |
| Publisher | University of Chicago Press (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1086/219248 |
| OpenAlex | W2010412583 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 25 |
| References cited | 1 |
Are predictions of conduct more accurate when made by case-study methods than by actuarial methods? This study is an experimental rather than a polemical attempt to determine the relative accuary of the two modes of prediction. A restricted form of behavior-academic success-was predicted from clinical (case-study) material and from a previously derived regression equation. The correlation coefficients demonstrate that the case-study method which presumably accounts for an innumerable asortment of variables is no more accurate than a simple statistical method which accounts for only two variables. Analysis of the predictions suggests that the case-study method takes behavior segments with known predictive weights and applies other weights which are less efficient. Case-study predictions-at least on the grounds of efficiency-should not be substituted for actuarial predictions. As a complement to the actuarial predictions, the clinical predictions add nothing. The posibility of generelizing to the prediction of other kinds of critera is discussed
Complement (music) · Econometrics · Regression · Regression analysis · Simple (philosophy) · Statistics · Chemistry · Health Systems, Economic Evaluations, Quality of Life · Mathematics · Medical Coding and Health Information
Comparative efficiency of informal (subjective, impressionistic) and formal (mechanical, algorithmic) prediction procedures
Bayesian synthesis of clinical and statistical prediction
Processes affecting scores on "understanding of others" and "assumed similarity
Linear models in decision making
Measurement and prediction, clinical and statistical
Multiple methods of personality assessment
Principles of Forecasting
Clinical Versus Mechanical Prediction
Clinical versus statistical prediction
Comparison of Bayesian and regression approaches to the study of information processing in judgment
Clinical versus mechanical prediction
Actuarial and Clinical Approaches to Psychodiagnosis
Improving Workplace Judgments by Reducing Noise
Investigating lay evaluations of models
Does expertise and thinking mode matter for accuracy in judgments of job applicants’ cognitive ability
Better Decisions for Children with “Big Data”
A sketch of Theodore R. Sarbin’s life
Is agent-based modelling the future of prediction
The autonomy‐validity dilemma in mechanical prediction procedures
Clinical and statistical prediction
The interview
The next step
The Meta-Analysis of Clinical Judgment Project
Trajectoires criminelles et récidive des délinquants sexuels adultes
Case and Situation Analysis
| Unique citing works | 25 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,35 |
| Citation span | 1954 - 2022 (69) |
| Citation velocity | historical |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 19 |