Evaluating the Effects of Vegetation, Zayandeh Rud River, and Urban Development on the Formation of Heat Islands in Isfahan Using Spatial Statistical Analyses

In this study, spatiotemporal changes in land surface temperature (LST) and land use in Isfahan City over 22 years (2002, 2014, and 2024) are investigated using Landsat satellite images (TM, OLI, and TIRS sensors). To ensure the accuracy of thermal calculations, the discrete window algorithm [split-window algorithm (SWA)] is used to extract LST, and the global Moran, local Moran, and hot spot analysis (Getis–Ord Gi*) statistical tests are used to analyze spatial patterns. The results indicate a significant intensification of urban heat islands, with the surface temperature range increasing from 24°–63°C in 2002 to 31°–66°C in 2024. The analysis of land-use changes indicates an expansion of built-up areas from 246.68 km 2 in 2002 to 453.62 km 2 in 2024, which is directly correlated with the increase in temperature. Although the vegetation area initially increased to 232.43 km 2 by 2014, it decreased to 183.54 km 2 by 2024, consistent with changes in the pattern of cold spots. The global Moran index, with a high value (>0.94), confirmed a strong clustering pattern in the temperature distribution, with hot spots at 99% confidence mainly corresponding to barren lands and dense urban areas without vegetation. Also, synoptic analysis showed that the Zayandeh Rud River and the highlands played an effective but decreasing role in moderating the urban microclimate. These findings highlight the need to maintain blue–green infrastructure to manage heat stress in Isfahan

Common spatial pattern · Land use · Satellite · Statistical analysis · Urban climate · Urban heat island · Urban planning · Land Use and Ecosystem Services · Remote Sensing in Agriculture · Urban Heat Island Mitigation