Reexamining El Niño and Cholera in Peru

A Climate Affairs Approach

Bibliographic Data

ID22332363
AuthorsIvan J Ramírez (0000-0002-4658-9813, New College of Florida), Sue C Grady (Michigan State University), Michael H Glantz (0009-0004-8563-6063, University of Colorado Boulder)
Year2013
Volume5
Issue2
Pages148-161
Publication date2013-04-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessNo
TypeARTICLE
VenueWeather, Climate, and Society (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 1948-8327 • E-ISSN: 1948-8335
PublisherAmerican Meteorological Society (PUBLISHER • US)
DOI10.1175/wcas-d-12-00032.1
OpenAlexW2043503217
LanguageEN
Citations received6
References cited61

In the 1990s Peru experienced the first cholera epidemic after almost a century. The source of emergence was initially attributed to a cargo ship, but later there was evidence of an El Niño association. It was hypothesized that marine ecosystem changes associated with El Niño led to the propagation of V. cholerae along the coast of Peru, which in turn initiated the onset of the epidemic in 1991. Earlier studies supported this explanation by demonstrating a relationship between elevated temperatures and increased cholera incidence in Peru; however, other aspects of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and their potential impacts on cholera were not investigated. Therefore, this study examines the relationship between El Niño and cholera in Peru from a holistic view of the ENSO cycle. A “climate affairs” approach is employed as a conceptual framework to incorporate ENSO’s multidimensional nature and to generate new hypotheses about the ENSO and cholera association in Peru. The findings reveal that ENSO may have been linked to the cholera epidemic through multiple pathways, including rainfall extremes, La Niña, and social vulnerability, with impacts depending on the geography of teleconnections within Peru. When the definition of an ENSO event is examined, cholera appears to have emerged either during ENSO neutral or La Niña conditions. Furthermore, the analysis herein suggests that the impact of El Niño arrived much later, possibly resulting in heightened transmission in the austral summer of 1992. In conclusion, a modified hypothesis with these new insights on cholera emergence and transmission in Peru is presented

Biology · Cholera · Climatology · El Niño Southern Oscillation · Geography · Teleconnection · Climate change impacts on agriculture · Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research · Vibrio bacteria research studies · Geology