Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture
An integrated assessment, 1990–2080
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 23355604 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Günther Fischer (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)Laxenburg, Austria), Mahendra Shah (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)Laxenburg, Austria), F N Tubiello (0000-0003-4617-4690, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)Laxenburg, Austria), Harrij van Velhuizen (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)Laxenburg, Austria) |
| Year | 2005 |
| Volume | 360 |
| Issue | 1463 |
| Pages | 2067-2083 |
| Publication date | 2005-11-29 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0962-8436 • E-ISSN: 1471-2970 |
| Publisher | The Royal Society (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1098/rstb.2005.1744 |
| PMID | 16433094 |
| PMCID | PMC1569572 |
| OpenAlex | W2097428353 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 100 |
| References cited | 22 |
A comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems over this century is developed, up to 2080 and at a global level, albeit with significant regional detail. To this end an integrated ecological–economic modelling framework is employed, encompassing climate scenarios, agro-ecological zoning information, socio-economic drivers, as well as world food trade dynamics. Specifically, global simulations are performed using the FAO/IIASA agro-ecological zone model, in conjunction with IIASAs global food system model, using climate variables from five different general circulation models, under four different socio-economic scenarios from the intergovernmental panel on climate change. First, impacts of different scenarios of climate change on bio-physical soil and crop growth determinants of yield are evaluated on a 5′×5′ latitude/longitude global grid; second, the extent of potential agricultural land and related potential crop production is computed. The detailed bio-physical results are then fed into an economic analysis, to assess how climate impacts may interact with alternative development pathways, and key trends expected over this century for food demand and production, and trade, as well as key composite indices such as risk of hunger and malnutrition, are computed. This modelling approach connects the relevant bio-physical and socio-economic variables within a unified and coherent framework to produce a global assessment of food production and security under climate change. The results from the study suggest that critical impact asymmetries due to both climate and socio-economic structures may deepen current production and consumption gaps between developed and developing world; it is suggested that adaptation of agricultural techniques will be central to limit potential damages under climate change.
Ecological forecasting · Global change · Agriculture Sustainability and Environmental Impact · Climate change impacts on agriculture · Plant responses to elevated CO2
Droughts and Agriculture in Lebanon
Migration and Disruptions
Coûts de l'inaction sur des défis environnementaux importants
What Is the Vulnerability of a Food System to Global Environmental Change
Coping with the impacts of weather changes in rural Sierra Leone
Perceptions of Cattle and Sheep Farmers on Climate Change and Adaptation in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa
Climate Change and Global Poverty
Climate change and food security
Strawberry fields forever? Urban agriculture in developed countries
Assessing the vulnerability of food crop systems in Africa to climate change
Green Revolution
Climate and environmental change in arid Central Asia
Implications of climate change for agricultural productivity in the early twenty-first century
Climate change effects on agriculture
Climate Change and Food Systems
Vulnerability of national economies to the impacts of climate change on fisheries
Agricultural adaptation to climate change
Global food security under climate change
Food, livestock production, energy, climate change, and health
RCP 8.5—A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions
Climate Change Education and Knowledge among Nigerian University Graduates
Nexus between climate change and maternal mortality
Analysing the socioeconomic and motivational factors affecting the willingness to pay for climate change adaptation in Malaysia
Exploring the influencing factors of continuous crop residue supply
Climate change, natural calamities and the triple burden of disease
Land degradation and climate change
IoT smart farming adoption intention under climate change
Climate change and the potential effects on maternal and pregnancy outcomes
The Anthropocene
Current distribution of two species of Chinese macaques ( Macaca arctoides and Macaca thibetana ) and the possible influence of climate change on future distribution
Grain or Green? Reusing the Underutilized Cropland Under Multi‐Scenarios in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China
The impact of future climate change on West African crop yields
A review of literature on climate change and its impacts on agriculture productivity
Will Global Climate Change Alter Fundamental Human Immune Reactivity
How does gendered vulnerability shape the adoption and impact of sustainable livelihood interventions in an era of global climate change
Projected changes of thermal growing season over Northern Eurasia in a 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming world
Wefe nexus unveiled
Climate change induced transformations of agricultural systems
Are the impacts of land use on warming underestimated in climate policy
Global scale climate–crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming
Climate impact and adaptation to heat and drought stress of regional and global wheat production
Implications of climate mitigation for future agricultural production
Land surface anomalies preceding the 2010 Russian heat wave and a link to the North Atlantic oscillation
The Influence of Space Transformation of Land Use on Function Transformation and the Regional Differences in Shaanxi Province
Assessing the Vulnerability of Eco-Environmental Health to Climate Change
Climate change and variability in Sub-Saharan Africa
Prioritization of natural resources rich regions (NRRZ) based on ecosystem (biotic and abiotic) extent and conditions
Indigenous innovations for climate change adaptation in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria
The impacts of climatic conditions on cereal production
Assessment of climate change awareness and agronomic practices in an agricultural region of Henan Province, China
Dynamics of energy transitions under changing socioeconomic, technological and climate conditions in Northwest Germany
The Economic Impacts of Droughts
Farm-level Autonomous Adaptation of European Agricultural Supply to Climate Change
Climate change driven shifts in the extent and location of areas suitable for export banana production
The International Food Policy Research Institute on the World Food Situation
The politics of adaptiveness in agroecosystems and its role in transformations to sustainable food systems
A vision for attaining food security
Cross-scale trade-off analysis for sustainable development
Is climate change the number one threat to humanity
Climate Change and its impacts on Indian agriculture
Climate variability and its impacts on agriculture production and future prediction using autoregressive integrated moving average method (Arima)
A return to prioritizing needs
Addressing the dynamics of agri-food systems
Policy responses to GEC impacts on food availability and affordability in the Caribbean community
Exploring coffee farmers’ awareness about climate change and water needs
A methodology for enhanced flexibility of integrated assessment in agriculture
Global-scale assessment of potential future risks of food insecurity
Nigeria’s Response to the Impacts of Climate Change
A path to sustainable development of agri‐industries
Economic drivers of migration and climate change in LDCs
The need for and use of socio-economic scenarios for climate change analysis
The impact of future climate change on West African crop yields
How inequitable is the global distribution of responsibility, capability, and vulnerability to climate change
Perceptions and responses to climate policy risks among California farmers
The poverty implications of climate-induced crop yield changes by 2030
Representing human behaviour and decisional processes in land system models as an integral component of the earth system
Exploratory modeling for analyzing coupled human-natural systems under uncertainty
Future cereal production in China
Assessing impacts, adaptation and vulnerability
From global economic modelling to household level analyses of food security and sustainability
Agricultural technologies for climate change in developing countries
Integrating climate change, food prices and population health
The Impact of Climate Shocks on Seed Purchase Decisions in Malawi
Smallholder responses to climate anomalies in rural Uganda
Agricultural investments and hunger in Africa modeling potential contributions to SDG2 – Zero Hunger
Does social capital matter in climate change adaptation? A lesson from agricultural sector in Yogyakarta, Indonesia
Scenario farmland protection zoning based on production potential
Is potential cultivated land expanding or shrinking in the dryland of China? Spatiotemporal evaluation based on remote sensing and SVM
An integrated approach for the estimation of agricultural drought costs
The integration of support for HIV and Aids and livelihood security
Do climate change and world uncertainty exacerbate gender inequality? Global evidence
Climate anomalies, land degradation, and rural out-migration in Uganda
A spatial analysis of population dynamics and climate change in Africa
Multi-scenario comparisons to identify the spatial distribution, land type, and effectiveness of cultivated land restoration in the main grain-producing area
Trend and spatial pattern of stable cropland productivity in China based on satellite observations (2001−2020)
Understanding livelihood vulnerability to climate change
Will Limited Land, Water, and Energy Control Human Population Numbers in the Future
Landraces and climate change
The meaning of farming beyond being a livelihood strategy
Climate, Capital, Conflict
The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments
Potential impact of climate change on world food supply
Consequences of climate change for European agricultural productivity, land use and policy
Climate change and world food security
Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios
Millions at risk
Increased crop damage in the US from excess precipitation under climate change
Climate change and world food supply, demand and trade
| Unique citing works | 100 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 4,76 |
| Citation span | 2005 - 2026 (22) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 94 |