Causes of Climate Change Over the Past 1000 Years
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 23362512 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Tony Crowley (0000-0002-5951-6111, Texas A&M University, corresponding author), Thomas J Crowley (Texas A&M University) |
| Year | 2000 |
| Volume | 289 |
| Issue | 5477 |
| Pages | 270-277 |
| Publication date | 2000-07-14 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Science (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0036-8075 • E-ISSN: 0193-4511 |
| Publisher | American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1126/science.289.5477.270 |
| PMID | 10894770 |
| OpenAlex | W2130256070 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 173 |
| References cited | 77 |
Recent reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere temperatures and climate forcing over the past 1000 years allow the warming of the 20th century to be placed within a historical context and various mechanisms of climate change to be tested. Comparisons of observations with simulations from an energy balance climate model indicate that as much as 41 to 64% of preanthropogenic (pre-1850) decadal-scale temperature variations was due to changes in solar irradiance and volcanism. Removal of the forced response from reconstructed temperature time series yields residuals that show similar variability to those of control runs of coupled models, thereby lending support to the models' value as estimates of low-frequency variability in the climate system. Removal of all forcing except greenhouse gases from the ∼1000-year time series results in a residual with a very large late-20th-century warming that closely agrees with the response predicted from greenhouse gas forcing. The combination of a unique level of temperature increase in the late 20th century and improved constraints on the role of natural variability provides further evidence that the greenhouse effect has already established itself above the level of natural variability in the climate system. A 21st-century global warming projection far exceeds the natural variability of the past 1000 years and is greater than the best estimate of global temperature change for the last interglacial.
Atmospheric sciences · Climate change · Climate model · Climatology · Context (archaeology) · Forcing (mathematics) · Glacial period · Global warming · Greenhouse gas · Interglacial · Northern Hemisphere · Radiative forcing · Solar irradiance · Solar variation · Environmental Science · Geology · Geology and Paleoclimatology Research · Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics · Tree-ring climate responses
Holocene hydroclimatic variability in the Zanskar Valley, Northwestern Himalaya, India
Bristlecone pine tree rings and volcanic eruptions over the last 5000 yr
Holocene Environmental Variability in Southern Greenland Inferred from Lake Sediments
Yr-long records of annual air temperature and precipitation over southern Siberia inferred from Teletskoye Lake sediments
Reconstructed summer temperature in the northern Rocky Mountains wilderness, USA
Quantitative estimates of temperature and precipitation changes over the last millennium from pollen and lake-level data at Lake Joux, Swiss Jura Mountains
The importance of effective moisture and landscape controls on diatom assemblages and primary production in Roche Lake, British Columbia, Canada over the past ca. 1800 years
Historical Perspectives on Exceptional Climatic Years at the Labrador/Nunatsiavut Coast 1780 to 1950
Holocene lake salinity changes in the Wimmera, southeastern Australia, provide evidence for millennial-scale climate variability
Control of wind strength and frequency in the Aral Sea basin during the late Holocene
A multi-proxy paleolimnological reconstruction of Holocene climate conditions in the Great Basin, United States
Solar and proxy-sensitivity imprints on paleohydrological records for the last millennium in west-central Europe
A 1000-yr record of environmental change in NE China indicated by diatom assemblages from maar lake Erlongwan
Exploring a Mallorca cave flooding during the Little Ice Age using nondestructive techniques on a stalagmite
A 1500-year record of temperature and glacial response inferred from varved Iceberg Lake, southcentral Alaska
People, sheep, and landscape change in colonial Mexico
Paisajes heredados
The Archaeology of the Archaic Periods in East Texas
Asociaciones fitolíticas en estructuras del espacio agrario del sitio Yasyamayo (valle de Yocavil, Argentina) durante el período Tardío (1000-1480 dc)
Educational intervention approaches to ameliorate adverse public health and environmental effects from global warming
Spatial Synchrony Among and Within World-Systems
Caminos hacia el poder en el Sureste prehistórico de Norteamérica
Climate variability over the last two millennia in the North American Monsoon region, recorded in laminated lake sediments from Laguna de Juanacatlán, Mexico
Prehistory of Nevada's northern tier
Analysis of Alpine glacier length change records with a macroscopic glacier model
“The Danger of a Single Story”
Early new world monumentality
A History of the Science and Politics of Climate Change
Stolen Future, Broken Present
The Birth of a Single Afro-Eurasian World-System (Second Century BC–Sixth Century CE)
The Worlds of the Indian Ocean
The Climate of Rebellion in the Early Modern Ottoman Empire
The Great Transition
The Anthropogenic Greenhouse Era Began Thousands of Years Ago
The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves
Global surface temperatures over the past two millennia
Cultural Responses to Climate Change During the Late Holocene
Persistent Positive North Atlantic Oscillation Mode Dominated the Medieval Climate Anomaly
Recent Warming Reverses Long-Term Arctic Cooling
El Niño/Southern Oscillation and tropical Pacific climate during the last millennium
Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia
Timing and climate forcing of volcanic eruptions for the past 2,500 years
Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization
Moisture changes over the last millennium in arid central Asia
The Evolution of Climate Over the Last Millennium
The ‘little ice age’
Abrupt onset of the Little Ice Age triggered by volcanism and sustained by sea‐ice/ocean feedbacks
European Seasonal and Annual Temperature Variability, Trends, and Extremes Since 1500
Low-Frequency Signals in Long Tree-Ring Chronologies for Reconstructing Past Temperature Variability
North American drought
Mid- to Late Holocene climate change
Climate over past millennia
Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data
El Niño variability off Peru during the last 20,000 years
Lost in translation? United States television news coverage of anthropogenic climate change, 1995–2004
Solar Influences on Climate
Historical Climatology In Europe – The State Of The Art
Volcanoes and the Climate Forcing of Carolingian Europe, A.D. 750-950
A 1500-year reconstruction of annual mean temperature for temperate North America on decadal-to-multidecadal time scales
A millennium-long ‘Blue Ring’ chronology from the Spanish Pyrenees reveals severe ephemeral summer cooling after volcanic eruptions
Simulation of air and ground temperatures in PMIP3/CMIP5 last millennium simulations
An observational 71-year history of seasonally frozen ground changes in the Eurasian high latitudes
Volcanic eruptions, successive poor harvests and social resilience over southwest China during the 18–19th century
Paleolimnology and Natural Versus Anthropogenic Influx During the Late Holocene from Vembanad Wetland, Ramsar Site, Kerala, India
Revisit the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age in Proxy Records from Zemu Glacier Sediments, Eastern Himalaya
Pollution, Health, and the Moderating Role of Physical Activity Opportunities
How Climate Change Science Is Reflected in People’s Minds. A Cross-Country Study on People’s Perceptions of Climate Change
Changing wildfire complexity highlights the need for institutional adaptation
In-Game Uncertainties and Climate Change Challenges as Identified by Pre-Service Teachers
Study of surrounding buildings’ shading effect on solar radiation through windows in different climates
Indoor ozone and climate change
Global Justice Index Report 2020
Conceptions of time in (paleo)climate science and some implications
Modeling the climatic effects of large explosive volcanic eruptions
A noodle, hockey stick, and spaghetti plate
Volcanoes and climate
Paleoclimates
Cycles and trends in solar irradiance and climate
The climate of the past millennium and online public engagement in a scientific debate
Urgent Problems of Northern Magnetobiology Literature Review
Some Perspectives on Societal Impacts of Past Climatic Changes
Managing ammonia emissions using no-litter flooring system for broilers
Impact of the built environment on climate change risk perception and psychological distancing
Do Insect Remains from Historic-Period Archaeological Occupation Sites Track Climate Change in Northern England
Climate Change and Energy Security Risk
Teleconnections between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and eastern China summer precipitation during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age
Observations on the connection between glacial phases, natural catastrophes and economic trends of the last millennium in Italy
Arctic climate over the past millennium
Twentieth-century warming and hydrographical changes in the Tagus Prodelta, eastern North Atlantic
Luminescence chronology of late-Holocene palaeofloods in the upper Kaveri basin, India
Palaeohydrological changes and human-impact history over the last millennium recorded at Lake Joux in the Jura Mountains, Switzerland
Paleoclimate of the Southern Adriatic Sea region during the ‘Medieval Climate Anomaly’ reflected by organic walled dinoflagellate cysts
Hydroclimate variability and human influence in southern Yemen over the past 1100 years
Little Ice Age summer temperatures in western Norway from a 700-year tree-ring chronology
Changes in solar activity and Holocene climatic shifts derived from 14C wiggle-match dated peat deposits
Seasonal temperature variability during the past 1600 years recorded in historical documents and varved lake sediment profiles from northeastern China
Palaeoenvironment, palaeoclimate and sea-level changes in the Shuaiba Lagoon during the late Holocene (last 3.6 ka), eastern Red Sea coast, Saudi Arabia
Resilience, rapid transitions and regime shifts
Isotopic evidence for climate change during the Vandal Minimum from Ariopsis felis otoliths and Mercenaria campechiensis shells, southwest Florida, USA
Climate of the past 2500 years in the Gulf of Taranto, central Mediterranean Sea
Greenland ice sheet evidence of post-glacial volcanism and its climatic impact
The Gisp2 δ18O Climate Record of the Past 16,500 Years and the Role of the Sun, Ocean, and Volcanoes
Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries
Annual climate variability in the Holocene
Arctic Environmental Change of the Last Four Centuries
Northern hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium
Holocene Climatic Variations—Their Pattern and Possible Cause
Long-Term Variations of Caloric Insolation Resulting from the Earth's Orbital Elements
High-resolution palaeoclimatic records for the last millennium
Estimates of low frequency natural variabilit in near-surface air temperature
How Warm Was the Medieval Warm Period
How Warm Was the Medieval Warm Period
Modeling Atmospheric 14 C Influences and 14 C Ages of Marine Samples to 10,000 BC
| Unique citing works | 173 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 6,92 |
| Citation span | 2001 - 2026 (26) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | Yes |
| Citation types | Neutral: 147 |