Resilience and Disparity
A statistical reevaluation of the pandemic-era self-harm crisis using Global Burden of Disease data (1990–2023)
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 24030513 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Dev Desai (Dr. D. Y. Patil Medical College, Hospital and Research Centre, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2026 |
| Pages | 1-8 |
| Publication date | 2026-08-15 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Sociological Spectrum (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0273-2173 • E-ISSN: 1521-0707 |
| Publisher | Informa UK Limited (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1080/02732173.2026.2715451 |
| OpenAlex | W7203547238 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 15 |
Background Early models projected pandemic-driven increases in suicide and violence. This study utilizes Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 data to evaluate mortality trajectories for self-harm and interpersonal violence (1990-2023), assessing regional and demographic pandemic-era variations.Methods Age-standardised mortality rates (ASMR) per 100,000 were extracted. The 2019-2023 disruption window was evaluated using 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). Data were disaggregated across 21 sub-regions, 688 geographic units, socio-demographic index (SDI), and sex.Results Global ASMR shifted from 16.05 (95% UI: 15.02-17.32) in 2019 to 16.43 (95% UI: 15.01-17.94) in 2023; overlapping UIs indicate macro-level stability. Geographic heterogeneity was profound: The majority of the world (486 of 688 units) experienced net declines, while Eastern Europe saw substantial increases (+37.09 ASMR). Higher SDI correlated with an older mean age of death (R2 = 0.50) but failed to predict pandemic deviations. The modest global aggregate increase was driven by male mortality (24.11 to 24.66). Crucially, disaggregating this macro-cluster revealed that isolated self-harm and interpersonal violence actually declined globally; the aggregate escalation was driven exclusively by a surge in “Conflict and terrorism.”Conclusion The 2020-2023 period lacked a uniform global increase in psychiatric mortality. Relying on overarching macro-clusters obscured actual declines in true self-harm by conflating them with localized geopolitical casualties, underscoring the absolute necessity of high-resolution, disaggregated epidemiological data for accurate resource allocation.
Aggregate data · Burden of disease · Geopolitics · Interpersonal communication · Interpersonal violence · Mortality rate · Pandemic · Psychological resilience · COVID-19 and Mental Health · Epidemiology · Gun Ownership and Violence Research · Suicide and Self-Harm Studies
| Citation velocity | historical |
|---|---|
| Highly cited | No |