Temperatures, food riots, and adaptation
A long-term historical analysis of England
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 3918108 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Alexander De Juan (0000-0002-6649-5064, School of Cultural Studies and Social Sciences, University of Osnabrück, corresponding author), Tim Wegenast (0000-0001-8904-0372, University of Konstanz) |
| Year | 2020 |
| Volume | 57 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 265-280 |
| Publication date | 2020-03-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of Peace Research (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0022-3433 • E-ISSN: 1460-3578 |
| Publisher | SAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1177/0022343319863474 |
| OpenAlex | W2969479960 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 6 |
| References cited | 45 |
A large body of research indicates that environmental conditions can influence the risk of social unrest. However, we know little about how these effects may change in the long run. Are they likely to remain constant or do they change over time - for example as a consequence of human adaptation? To investigate this question, we rely on a disaggregated analysis of England over a period of more than 300 years. Combining data on geo-referenced food riots with reconstructed climate data, we first assess the impact of annual temperatures on social unrest over the period 1500-1817. We then use our long-term time-series dataset to assess the temporal heterogeneity of year-to-year associations between temperatures and social conflict. Our models show a substantive negative correlation between temperatures and food riots in the aggregate. This association, however, seems to be highly inconsistent over time and largely confined to the 18th century. In addition, we find evidence of decadal processes of adaptation: past exposure to adverse weather conditions dampens the effect of current exposure. Taken together, these findings underline the importance of considering temporal heterogeneities when assessing the climate-conflict nexus and caution against any simple extrapolations of observable present-day effects of environmental conditions into the future
Adaptation (eye) · Climate change · Econometrics · Economics · Geography · Nexus (standard) · Political science · Politics · Social unrest · Term (time) · Unrest · Climate Change and Health Impacts · Climate change impacts on agriculture · Climate variability and models · Computer Science · Ecology · Psychology
Climate and society in European history
Famines in medieval and early modern Europe—Connecting climate and society
Revisiting the links between economic inequality and political violence
Fragile Geographies and the Climate-Conflict Nexus
Climate bones of contention
Environmental displacement and political instability
Enclosure and the Yeoman
Agricultural Revolution in England
Old World megadroughts and pluvials during the Common Era
Results on the bias and inconsistency of ordinary least squares for the linear probability model
Adapting agriculture to climate change
The causality analysis of climate change and large-scale human crisis
Consistent Estimates Based on Partially Consistent Observations
Impacts and adaptation of European crop production systems to climate change
The incidental parameter problem since 1948
European Seasonal and Annual Temperature Variability, Trends, and Extremes Since 1500
The Hyde 3.1 spatially explicit database of human‐induced global land‐use change over the past 12,000 years
Climate, History And The Modern World
Climate Change Response at the Farm Level
Climate variability, food production shocks, and violent conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa
Adaptation to climate change in Ethiopia and South Africa
Long-term dynamic modeling of global population and built-up area in a spatially explicit way
Who remembers a hot summer or a cold winter? The asymmetric effect of beliefs about global warming on perceptions of local climate conditions in the U.S
Adaptation to climate change through the choice of cropping system and sowing date in sub-Saharan Africa
Weather Shocks, Sweet Potatoes and Peasant Revolts in Historical China
Late-Medieval Weather in Sussex and Its Agricultural Significance
Climate variability, economic growth, and civil conflict
Come rain or shine
Informing adaptation responses to climate change through theories of transformation
Back to the Future
Climate triggers
Climate change, rainfall, and social conflict in Africa
Weathering unrest
The Onset of the English Agricultural Revolution
Economic Fluctuations in England, 1700-1800
The Moral Economy of the English Crowd in the Eighteenth Century
Climate Change and War Frequency in Eastern China over the Last Millennium
| Unique citing works | 6 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 1 |
| Citation span | 2020 - 2025 (6) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 6 |