Demographic Perspectives on Human Senescence
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 4122008 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Jay Olshansky (0000-0001-6956-5518, Cancer Research And Biostatistics), S Jay Olshansky, Bruce A Carnes |
| Year | 1994 |
| Volume | 20 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 57 |
| Publication date | 1994-03-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Population and Development Review (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0098-7921 • E-ISSN: 1728-4457 |
| Publisher | JSTOR (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.2307/2137630 |
| OpenAlex | W2000636375 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 15 |
| References cited | 16 |
Demographic approaches to modeling and forecasting mortality are often based on the observation of short-term trends in death statistics and the assumption that future mortality will exhibit patterns similar to those of the recent past. This extrapolation method has led some demographers to conclude that life expectancy in the not too remote future will reach 100 years. Similar predictions follow from another demographic model that establishes a hypothetical link between risk factor modification and changes in death rates. These predictions are examined within the context of the observed mortality record of the United States and their biological plausibility is assessed in light of evolutionary theories of senescence. Results indicate that these demographic models lead to mortality schedules that do not follow from the observed mortality record and that are inconsistent with predictions of biologically based limits to longevity. Although there is probably not a genetic program for death the biology of our species places inherent limits on human longevity. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA) (EXCERPT)
Biology · Senescence · Climate Change and Health Impacts · Genetics · Genetics, Aging, and Longevity in Model Organisms · Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
Sociodemographic Characteristics of Long-Lived and Healthy Individuals
Continuing the Search for a Law of Mortality
A reassessment of sexual dimorphism in human senescence
Mortality trends and projections in Hong Kong
Improving Overall Mortality Forecasts by Analysing Cause-of-Death, Period and Cohort Effects in Trends
Reconsidering Mortality Compression and Deceleration
How frailty models can be used for evaluating longevity limits
Ever since gompertz
Narrowing sex differentials in life expectancy in the industrialized world
A Biodemographic Interpretation of Life Span
A Realist View of Aging, Mortality, and Future Longevity
Will Aging Baby Boomers Bust the Federal Budget
Life expectancy and mortality differences between migrant groups living in Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Longevity in the twenty-first century
Smoothing and projecting age-specific probabilities of death by Topals
Physical Activity, All-Cause Mortality, and Longevity of College Alumni
Pleiotropy, Natural Selection, and the Evolution of Senescence
Instability and decay of the primary structure of DNA
In Search of Methuselah
The Association of Changes in Physical-Activity Level and Other Lifestyle Characteristics with Mortality among Men
The Fourth Stage of the Epidemiologic Transition
Trading Off Longer Life for Worsening Health
Passage to Methuselah
Pursuing longevity
Mortality among the elderly in the Alameda County Study
Alternative Projections of the U.S. population
A description of the extreme aged population based on improved medicare enrollment data
How Change in Age-specific Mortality Affects Life Expectancy
Evolutionary Perspectives on Human Senescence
Changes in Life Expectancy and Disability-Free Life Expectancy in the United States
Limits to Human Life Expectancy
| Unique citing works | 15 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,48 |
| Citation span | 1995 - 2022 (28) |
| Citation velocity | historical |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 15 |