"Predicting "Unprecedented change
A crisis for analogs
Datos Bibliográficos
| ID | 4189152 |
|---|---|
| Autores | Melissa Charenko (0009-0007-2198-2305, California University of Pennsylvania, autor de correspondencia) |
| Año | 2025 |
| Fecha de publicación | 2025-05-14 |
| Peer Reviewed | Sí |
| Open Access | Sí |
| Tipo | ARTICLE |
| Revista | The Anthropocene Review (JOURNAL) |
| Identificadores de la revista | ISSN: 2053-0196 • E-ISSN: 2053-020X |
| Editorial | SAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1177/20530196251334761 |
| OpenAlex | W4410415209 |
| Idioma | EN |
| Referencias citadas | 59 |
Earth System Science (ESS) and climate change research largely rely on predictive computer models. Models represent Earth's processes and aim to provide policy-relevant information. Despite models' dominance today, there were other ways to envisage the future. This article examines another method that scientists proposed to foresee the effects of anthropogenic climate change: analogs. An analog is a state of the Earth that is compositionally similar to a poorly understood past or future Earth state. The analog method uses the properties of the better-known state to fill in information about the poorly known state. During the late 1980s and the early 2000s, ecologists promoted the analog method as an alternative to the reductionism of models, especially for understanding the effects of human-caused climate change. Ecologists worried that models omitted and oversimplified biological phenomena whereas analogs captured ecological complexity. Yet promoters of the analog technique faced an epistemological crisis with anthropogenic climate change, which scientists increasingly framed as "unprecedented." This formulation meant that there would be no analogs in the future. Promoters of analogs thus worked to demarcate how analogs could still be relevant to ESS and predictive climate models
Political science · Complex Systems and Decision Making · Sustainability and Climate Change Governance
Plant succession; an analysis of the development of vegetation
The Closed World
The Background of Ecology
Physical and economic bias in climate change research
Modern Analogs in Quaternary Paleoecology
On the theory of pollen analysis
Novel climates, no-analog communities, and ecological surprises
Quantitative Interpretation of Fossil Pollen Spectra
Uncertainty, Complexity and Concepts of Good Science in Climate Change Modelling
The emergence and evolution of Earth System Science
Climate change
Putting the Earth System in a numerical box? The evolution from climate modeling toward global change
Narratives of the past for Future Earth
Ways of knowing climate
History of climate modeling
Lessons from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change on inclusiveness across geographies and stakeholders
History manifested
Problems with making and governing global kinds of knowledge☆
Climate change prediction
Knowing like a global expert organization
Who participates in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and why
The intergovernmental panal on climate change
Branding the Earth
Local Ecologies and Global Science
Data, Models and Earth History in Deep Convolution
Scaling procedures in climate science
Critical Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Democratization, International Knowledge Institutions, and Global Governance
The IPCC and the new map of science and politics
Reducing the Future to Climate
Why the Anthropocene has no history
Synchronizing Earthly Timescales
Between History and Earth System Science
Temperature and Capital
A New Climate for Society
| Velocidad de citación | historical |
|---|---|
| Altamente citado | No |