Trend breaks in life expectancy in the United States over 120 years and potential sources of future gains

Bibliographic Data

ID4792016
AuthorsJiaxin Shi (0000-0002-6060-926X, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology), Jason M Fletcher (0000-0001-8843-0563, University of Wisconsin–Madison)
Year2025
Pages1-18
Publication date2025-09-04
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessNo
TypeARTICLE
VenuePopulation Studies (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0032-4728 • E-ISSN: 1477-4747
PublisherInforma UK Limited (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1080/00324728.2025.2546993
PMID40905144
OpenAlexW4413993543
LanguageEN
References cited64

Research indicates a significant slowdown in life expectancy growth in the United States (US) post 2010, marking a departure from the consistent progress in longevity throughout the twentieth century. We extend this understanding, tracing the deceleration of US life expectancy back to the 1950s, after which average decadal change dropped from 3.80 to 1.61 years. Surprisingly, these mid-twentieth-century shifts were consistent across race and sex in the US and also in other high-income countries. Using a simple approach of quantifying potential life expectancy gains by eliminating mortality at specific ages, we find that the potential gains in life expectancy from reducing midlife mortality have been larger in the US than in other countries since 1900. The findings suggest that US life expectancy is unlikely to progress at the high speed observed between 1900 and the 1950s, with future advancements hinging on the reduction of old-age mortality, particularly from cardiovascular diseases and mental and nervous system diseases

Demographic economics · Economics · Expectancy theory · Life expectancy · Sociology · Demography · Global Health Care Issues · Health disparities and outcomes · Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management · Psychology · Social Psychology