Base rates can affect individual predictions
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6201652 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Melvin Manis (Ann Arbor VA Medical Center), Ismael Dovalina, Nancy E Avis (0000-0002-1077-3037), Steven Cardoze |
| Year | 1980 |
| Volume | 38 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 231-248 |
| Publication date | 1980-02-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of Personality and Social Psychology (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0022-3514 • E-ISSN: 1939-1315 |
| Publisher | American Psychological Association (APA) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1037/0022-3514.38.2.231 |
| OpenAlex | W2091329716 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 58 |
| References cited | 11 |
Affect (linguistics) · Base (topology) · Cognitive psychology · Communication · Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics · Psychology · Psychology of Social Influence · Social Psychology
Representativeness in Foreign Policy Judgments
Examining the Vividness Controversy
Talking nets
Heuristics made easy
Heuristics and biases
Consensus information, prediction, and causal attribution
Diagnosticity and pseudodiagnosticity
Lay persons' sensitivity to statistical information
Effects of cue consistency and value on base-rate utilization
Availability of well-defined internal knowledge and the attitude formation process
Representations of Self and Other
The effects of base rates and individuating information on judgments about another person
Another Look at Reasoning Experiments
Heuristics and Biases
Norm theory
The use of statistical heuristics in everyday inductive reasoning.
The weighing of evidence and the determinants of confidence
Extensional versus intuitive reasoning
Stalking the elusive "vividness" effect.
Hypothesis evaluation from a Bayesian perspective.
Exaggerated Versus Representative Exemplification in News Reports
Individual differences in reasoning
Clinical Versus Actuarial Judgment
Support theory
The hot hand in basketball
Representativeness Revisited
The base rate fallacy reconsidered
What does and does not alleviate base-rate neglect under direct experience
Hearing hooves, thinking zebras
Developmental differences in baserate estimates of social behaviors and attitudes
Information seeking on Bayesian conditional probability problems
Ambiguity and Self-Evaluation
The Affect Heuristic
The impact of mothers' gender-role stereotypic beliefs on mothers' and children's ability perceptions
Expert psychological testimony in rape trials
Stereotypes and standards of judgment
Linking structures and sensitivity to judgment-relevant information in statistical and logical reasoning tasks
How alike is it versus how likely is it
Behavioral roots of person perception
Natural sample spaces and uncertain belief
Bayesian inference
Social roles and strategies in prediction
A focus theory of normative conduct
Ambiguity and self-evaluation
Conversational conventions, order of information acquisition, and the effect of base rates and individuating information on social judgments
When do base rates affect predictions
Problem solving in judgment under uncertainty
Can the availability heuristic explain vividness effects
Knowledge in a Social World
How Do Ambivalent Consumers Interpret Diversified Word-of-Mouth Information
Reports of the sources of self‐knowledge 1
Acquisition of dispositional attributions
When more observations are better than less
On the Courtroom Use and Misuse of Gender Stereotyping Research
Integration of base rates and new information in an abstract hypothesis‐testing task
Social stereotypes and judgments of individuals
Judging psychopathology
The role of task demands and processing resources in the use of base-rate and individuating information
Experimental Design: Procedures for the Behavioral Sciences
On the psychology of prediction.
Telling more than we can know
Naive attributors' attributions and predictions
The power of consensus
Attribution and the psychology of prediction
Do people use consensus information in making causal attributions
Intuitive theories of events and the effects of base-rate information on prediction
An individual and quantitative measure of stereotypes
Combining results of independent studies
Laboratory studies of behavior without awareness
| Unique citing works | 58 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 1,23 |
| Citation span | 1979 - 2021 (43) |
| Citation velocity | historical |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 45 |