Looking for Audience Costs
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6285506 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Kenneth A Schultz (0000-0002-8009-075X, Princeton University, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2001 |
| Volume | 45 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 32-60 |
| Publication date | 2001-02-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of Conflict Resolution (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0022-0027 • E-ISSN: 1552-8766 |
| Publisher | SAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1177/0022002701045001002 |
| OpenAlex | W2169253034 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 164 |
| References cited | 38 |
The methodological issues that arise in testing Fearon's argument about domestic political audience costs and signaling in international crises are examined, in particular the difficulty of finding direct evidence (1) that escalating a crisis and then backing down jeopardizes a leader's tenure in office, and (2) that democratic leaders are more vulnerable to removal in this event than are nondemocratic leaders. Tests that seek to measure the existence and magnitude of audience costs encounter severe problems of partial observability and strategic selection: the effect of audience costs on a leader's political survival can only be detected by looking at cases in which the costs are actually incurred, but strategic choice implies that the probability of incurring audience costs is a function of their value. A formal model, brief case studies, and Monte Carlo simulations are used to show that these problems bias direct tests against supporting either of the audience cost propositions. Tests based on observed audience costs understate both the mean level of audience costs in the full population and the difference in means across regime types
Argument (complex analysis · Business · Democracy · Economics · Microeconomics · Observability · Political science · Politics · Population · Public economics · Selection (genetic algorithm · Sociology · Target audience · Value (mathematics · Computer Science · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · International Relations and Foreign Policy · Law · Marketing · Political Conflict and Governance
Interdependence, Development, and Interstate Conflict
Domestic Institutions and International Conflict
Central Issues In The Study Of International Conflict
Statements of Resolve
The Democratic Peace and Territorial Conflict in the Twentieth Century
Discursive hedging under external identity polarisation
The empirical evidence of audience costs theory
Leaders and International Conflict
Fighting words
Democratic Accountability and Foreign Security Policy
Public Opinion and Foreign Aid
Leadership transition, ally restraints, and target state resistance
Public Perceptions of International Leadership in China and the United States
Politics, audience costs, and signalling
Beyond tit-for-tat in cyberspace
Mediated Audience Costs
Hegemony, Inequality, and the Quest for Primacy
Audience costs in the eyes of an adversary
Domestic constraints in crisis bargaining
The Persistence of US Conflict Behavior
Media coverage and the escalation of militarized interstate disputes, 1992–2001
Ideology and UN Responsiveness to Sexual Violence
The Flipside of Flip-Flopping
Sweetening the Deal
Diversionary Politics and Territorial Disputes
Scapegoating Your Ally
Comfort to Our Adversaries”? Partisan Ideology, Domestic Vulnerability, and Strategic Targeting
When Does Audience Matter? Challengers’ Stability and Audience Costs
US Diplomatic Visits and Allies’ Military Spending
A Game Theoretic Analysis of the Afghan Surge
The Political Survival of Foreign Ministers
Offending the audience
A Behavioral Foundation for Audience Costs
Belief Updating in Sequential Games of Two-Sided Incomplete Information
Thirty Years of the Audience Cost Theory
Buffers, Not Bridges
An Experimental Agenda for Securitization Theory
Contesting counter-terrorism
Narendra Modi government’s neighbourhood policy
Public support for economic and military coercion and audience costs
US allies’ foreign policy alignment in an era of great power competition
Democratic victory and war duration
Public opinion, international reputation, and audience costs in an authoritarian regime
Testing Competing Institutional Explanations of the Democratic Peace
A game of domestic imperatives
Measuring Uncertainty in International Relations
Can you trust a dictator
Between indifference and coercion
The Militarized Interstate Events (MIE) dataset, 1816–2014
Domestic institutions, leader tenure and the duration of civil war
Bluff to peace
Presidents on the cycle
How Public Opinion Constrains the Use of Force
Time Present and Time Past
Disaggregating Peace
Why “cheap” threats are meaningful
Threats at Home, Threats Abroad
Give Me Shelter
Diversionary cheap talk
Satisfaction, Alternatives, Investments, and the Microfoundations of Audience Cost Models
Defeat in Interstate War and the Probability of Political Liberalization
A new formal model analysis of deterrent to brinkmanship and the causes of the armament dilemma
First Things First
The Inscrutable Intentions of Great Powers
Causes, theories, and the past in political science
The Effective Power of Military Coalitions
Get the word out
Can rising powers reassure? Shifting power, foreign economic policy and perceptions of revisionist intent
Power, Parity, and Place
Strategy, Secrecy, and External Support for Insurgent Groups
Geopolitics, Ethnic Conflicts along the Border, and Chinese Foreign Policy Changes toward Myanmar
If It Leads, It Bleeds (and If It Bleeds, It Leads)
Media Ownership and News Coverage of International Conflict
Domestic Audience Costs in International Relations
Which Way Out
Regime Vulnerability and the Diversionary Threat of Force
Presidents, Congress, and the Use of Force
War Outcomes and Leader Tenure
Honor and War
A Unified Model of War Onset and Outcome
Did Georgian Voters Desire Military Escalation in 2008? Experiments and Observations
Territorial Issues, Audience Costs, and the Democratic Peace
Media, Public Opinion, and Foreign Policy in the Age of Social Media
At What Cost? Reexamining Audience Costs in Realistic Settings
Leader Hawkishness, Political Survival, and Interstate Crises
When Backing Down Is the Right Decision
Drafting Support for War
Looking for Audience Costs in all the Wrong Places
Backing Down and Domestic Political Survival in Israel
The accountability of politicians in international crises and the nature of audience cost
Every Story Has a Beginning, Middle, and an End (But Not Always in That Order)
Explaining Wars Fought by Established Democracies
In Capable Hands
The Influence of Unobserved Factors on Position Timing and Content in the Nafta Vote
Is There a Trump Effect? An Experiment on Political Polarization and Audience Costs
Conflict bargaining as a signal to third parties
Knowing one’s future preferences
Electoral Authoritarianism and Credible Signaling in International Crises
Knowing the Unknown
War Aims and War Outcomes
The Statistical Analysis of Quasi-Experiments
Democracy and Coercive Diplomacy
Grasping the Democratic Peace
War and Reason
Win, Lose, or Draw
British General Election Manifestos 1900–1974
Rigor or Rigor Mortis? Rational Choice and Security Studies
The British General Election of 1951
The Diplomacy Of Imperialism, 1890–1902
War Initiators and War Winners
Domestic Political Vulnerability and International Disputes
Honest Threats
Domestic Structure, Decisional Constraints, and War
An Empirical Test of The Audience Cost Proposition
To Intervene or Not to Intervene
War and American Democracy
Fighting for Survival
Regime Type, Strategic Interaction, and the Diversionary Use of Force
Democracy and Battlefield Military Effectiveness
Diversionary Foreign Policy in Democratic Systems
Audience Costs and Interstate Crises
Do Democratic Institutions Constrain or Inform? Contrasting Two Institutional Perspectives on Democracy and War
A Unified Statistical Model of Conflict Onset and Escalation
Testing Theories of Strategic Choice
War and the Survival of Political Leaders
A Survey of British Policy in the Fashoda Crisis
Winners or Losers? Democracies in International Crisis, 1918-94
The Duration of Interstate Wars, 1816-1985
Democracy and the Peaceful Settlement of International Conflict
Strategic Interaction and the Statistical Analysis of International Conflict
Democracy, War Initiation, and Victory
Domestic Opposition and Signaling in International Crises
Foreign Affairs and Issue Voting
International Crises and Domestic Politics
War and the Fate of Regimes
An Institutional Explanation of the Democratic Peace
Powerful Pacifists
Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes
| Unique citing works | 164 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 6,56 |
| Citation span | 2001 - 2026 (26) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | Yes |
| Citation types | Neutral: 164 |