Tourism Demand Forecasting in Normal and Crisis Times
Combining Bootstrap-Aggregating and Bayesian Approaches
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 7159652 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Xinyang Liu (0000-0001-6689-798X, Newcastle Business School, Northumbria University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK, corresponding author), Anyu Liu (0000-0003-1459-0163, Hospitality and Tourism Research Centre, School of Hotel and Tourism Management, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Kowloon, Hong Kong SAR, China), Jason Li Chen (0000-0001-6605-195X, University of Surrey), Gang Li (0000-0002-9858-5232, University of Surrey), Haiyan Song (0000-0001-6158-1222, Hospitality and Tourism Research Centre, School of Hotel and Tourism Management, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Kowloon, Hong Kong SAR, China) |
| Year | 2026 |
| Volume | 50 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Pages | 323-340 |
| Publication date | 2026-03-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Research (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1096-3480 • E-ISSN: 1557-7554 |
| Publisher | SAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1177/10963480251313492 |
| OpenAlex | W4405996487 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 6 |
| References cited | 38 |
Taking advantage of the merits of both the bootstrap-aggregating method and the Bayesian forecasting approach, this study introduces their combination—the BayesBag method—to the tourism forecasting literature for the first time. In this study, we examine whether the novel BayesBag method can improve the forecasting performance of the traditional Autoregressive-Distributed-Lag (ADL) model in both normal (i.e., pre-COVID-19) and crisis (i.e., during the pandemic) times. This is also the first study to incorporate the global travel sentiment index as a measure of visitors’ behavioral intentions for forecasting tourism demand in a crisis situation. We conduct both ex-post and ex-ante forecasting of European monthly tourism demand, and our empirical results show that the newly proposed BayesBag method outperforms other methods in both periods
Autoregressive model · Bayesian probability · Demand forecasting · Distributed lag · Econometrics · Economics · Ex-ante · Geography · Lag · Macroeconomics · Operations management · Tourism · Computer Science · Diverse Aspects of Tourism Research · Forecasting Techniques and Applications · Grey System Theory Applications · Artificial Intelligence
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| Unique citing works | 6 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 6 |
| Citation span | 2025 - 2026 (2) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 6 |