Timing is everything

A quantitative study of presidentialist regime dynamics in Eurasia, 1992–2016

Bibliographic Data

ID7981464
AuthorsHenry E Hale (0000-0002-2956-8033, George Washington University, corresponding author)
Year2018
Volume34
Issue5
Pages267-281
Publication date2018-09-03
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessNo
TypeARTICLE
VenuePost-Soviet Affairs (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 1060-586X • E-ISSN: 1938-2855
PublisherInforma UK Limited (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1080/1060586x.2018.1500094
OpenAlexW2889985986
LanguageEN
Citations received4
References cited47

Why do some countries with presidentialist constitutions feature more political closure than others at a given time? A quantitative study of post-Soviet countries since independence finds that much of the observed variation in political closure reflects timing, or the particular point at which a country happens to be within a regime cycle, rather than structural or other factors usually cited to explain regime change. Specifically, how much time a president has had to coordinate rivalrous networks around his or her authority is at least as strong a predictor of the level of regime closure as are economic development, economic growth, resource rents, proximity to Europe, and key cultural factors, even when controlling for the level of closure in the preceding year. This pattern is not found among countries with divided-executive constitutions, indicating it is related to the constitution rather than a general phenomenon

Closure (psychology · Constitution · Democracy · Development economics · Economic geography · Economic rent · Economics · Independence (probability theory · Market economy · Phenomenon · Physics · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Regime change · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Law · Mathematics · Political Conflict and Governance · Russia and Soviet political economy