Susan Joslyn
Datos Biográficos
| ID | 10282170 |
|---|---|
| NOMBRE | Susan Joslyn |
| NOMBRES | Susan |
| APELLIDO | Joslyn |
| FIRMA | JOSLYN S |
| AFILIACIONES | University of Washington |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-4452-0695 |
| VERIFICADO | No |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 12 |
| TOTAL DE CITAS | 0 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 12 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 0 |
| PRIMER AÑO DE PUBLICACIÓN | 2012 |
| AÑO MÁS RECIENTE DE PUBLICACIÓN | 2025 |
| ÍNDICE H | 0 |
Forecast Uncertainty Information Improves Multialternative Risky Decision-Making
Research suggests that nonexperts make better decisions in binary decision tasks and have higher trust in forecasts that include numeric uncertainty estimates (e.g., 30% chance) compared to single-value forecasts (e.g., 6-in. snow accumulation). However, in real-world situations in which one must choose between protective action at a cost or risking a larger probabilistic loss, there is often an intermediate option. Two experiments, reported here…
The Impact of Forecast Inconsistency and Probabilistic Forecasts on Users’ Trust and Decision-Making
When forecasts for a major weather event begin days in advance, updates may be more accurate but inconsistent with the original forecast. Evidence suggests that resulting inconsistency may reduce user trust. However, adding an uncertainty estimate to the forecast may attenuate any loss of trust due to forecast inconsistency, as has been shown with forecast inaccuracy. To evaluate this hypothesis, this experiment tested the impact on trust of addi…
Do Advisories, Warnings, or Color Coding Matter to Risk Perception and Precautionary Decisions
There are lingering questions about the effectiveness of the watch, warning, and advisory system (WWA) used to convey weather threats in the United States. Recently there has been a shift toward alternative communication strategies such as the impact-based forecast. The study reported here compared users’ interpretation of a color-coded impact-based prototype designed for email briefings, to a legacy WWA format. Participants, including emergency …
Communicating Uncertainty Information in a Dynamic Decision Environment
The likelihood of threatening events is often simplified for members of the public and presented as risk categories such as the “watches” and “warnings” currently issued by National Weather Service in the United States. However, research (e.g., Joslyn and LeClerc) suggests that explicit numeric uncertainty information—for example, 30%—improves people’s understanding as well as their decisions. Whether this benefit extends to dynamic situations in…
The Effects of Consistency among Simultaneous Forecasts on Weather-Related Decisions
People access weather forecasts from multiple sources [mobile telephone applications (“apps”), newspapers, and television] that are not always in agreement for a particular weather event. The experiment reported here investigated the effects of inconsistency among forecasts on user trust, weather-related decisions, and confidence in user decisions. In a computerized task, participants made school-closure decisions on the basis of snow forecasts f…
The Impact of Weather Forecast Inconsistency on User Trust
For high-impact weather events, forecasts often start days in advance. Forecasters believe that consistency among subsequent forecasts is important to user trust and can be reluctant to make changes when newer, potentially more accurate information becomes available. However, to date, there is little empirical evidence for an effect of inconsistency among weather forecasts on user trust, although the reduction in trust due to inaccuracy is well d…
The Effects of Recency and Numerical Uncertainty Estimates on Overcautiousness
The four experiments reported here tested the impact of recent negative events on decision-making. Participants were given a virtual budget to spend on crops of varying costs and payoffs that, in some cases, depended on drought conditions. Participants made 46 decisions based on either deterministic or probabilistic seasonal climate predictions. Participants experienced a sequence of droughts either immediately prior to the target trials (recent …
Communicating Climate Change
Despite near unanimous agreement among climate scientists about global warming, a substantial proportion of Americans remain skeptical or unconcerned. The two experiments reported here tested communication strategies designed to increase trust in and concern about climate change. They also measured attitudes toward climate scientists. Climate predictions were systematically manipulated to include either probabilistic (90% predictive interval) or …
Expressing Flood Likelihood
The likelihood of floods and other potentially destructive natural phenomena is often expressed as a return period or recurrence interval, such as a 100-yr flood. However, the expression might give users the impression that the event will occur exactly once within the described period, obscuring the intended probabilistic meaning. If so, users may think a flood is less likely when one has just occurred or more likely when it has not, leading to a…
The Benefits and Challenges of Predictive Interval Forecasts and Verification Graphics for End Users
Two behavioral experiments tested the use of predictive interval forecasts and verification graphics by nonexpert end users. Most participants were able to use a simple key to understand a predictive interval graphic, showing a bracket to indicate the upper and lower boundary values of the 80% predictive interval for temperature. In the context of a freeze warning task, the predictive interval forecast narrowed user expectations and alerted parti…
Boater Safety
Recreational boaters in the Pacific Northwest understand that there is uncertainty inherent in deterministic forecasts as well as some of the factors that increase uncertainty. This was determined in an online survey of 166 boaters in the Puget Sound area. Understanding was probed using questions that asked respondents what they expected to observe when given a deterministic forecast with a specified lead time, for a particular weather parameter,…
Odds Ratio Forecasts Increase Precautionary Action for Extreme Weather Events
What is the best way to communicate the risk of rare but extreme weather to the public? One suggestion is to communicate the relative risk of extreme weather in the form of odds ratios; but, to the authors’ knowledge, this suggestion has never been tested systematically. The experiment reported here provides an empirical test of this hypothesis. Participants performed a realistic computer simulation task in which they assumed the role of the mana…
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Boater Safety
Recreational boaters in the Pacific Northwest understand that there is uncertainty inherent in deterministic forecasts as well as some of the factors that increase uncertainty. This was determined in an online survey of 166 boaters in the Puget Sound area. Understanding was probed using questions that asked respondents what they expected to observe when given a deterministic forecast with a specified lead time, for a particular weather parameter,…
Odds Ratio Forecasts Increase Precautionary Action for Extreme Weather Events
What is the best way to communicate the risk of rare but extreme weather to the public? One suggestion is to communicate the relative risk of extreme weather in the form of odds ratios; but, to the authors’ knowledge, this suggestion has never been tested systematically. The experiment reported here provides an empirical test of this hypothesis. Participants performed a realistic computer simulation task in which they assumed the role of the mana…
The Benefits and Challenges of Predictive Interval Forecasts and Verification Graphics for End Users
Two behavioral experiments tested the use of predictive interval forecasts and verification graphics by nonexpert end users. Most participants were able to use a simple key to understand a predictive interval graphic, showing a bracket to indicate the upper and lower boundary values of the 80% predictive interval for temperature. In the context of a freeze warning task, the predictive interval forecast narrowed user expectations and alerted parti…
Expressing Flood Likelihood
The likelihood of floods and other potentially destructive natural phenomena is often expressed as a return period or recurrence interval, such as a 100-yr flood. However, the expression might give users the impression that the event will occur exactly once within the described period, obscuring the intended probabilistic meaning. If so, users may think a flood is less likely when one has just occurred or more likely when it has not, leading to a…
Communicating Climate Change
Despite near unanimous agreement among climate scientists about global warming, a substantial proportion of Americans remain skeptical or unconcerned. The two experiments reported here tested communication strategies designed to increase trust in and concern about climate change. They also measured attitudes toward climate scientists. Climate predictions were systematically manipulated to include either probabilistic (90% predictive interval) or …
The Impact of Weather Forecast Inconsistency on User Trust
For high-impact weather events, forecasts often start days in advance. Forecasters believe that consistency among subsequent forecasts is important to user trust and can be reluctant to make changes when newer, potentially more accurate information becomes available. However, to date, there is little empirical evidence for an effect of inconsistency among weather forecasts on user trust, although the reduction in trust due to inaccuracy is well d…
The Effects of Recency and Numerical Uncertainty Estimates on Overcautiousness
The four experiments reported here tested the impact of recent negative events on decision-making. Participants were given a virtual budget to spend on crops of varying costs and payoffs that, in some cases, depended on drought conditions. Participants made 46 decisions based on either deterministic or probabilistic seasonal climate predictions. Participants experienced a sequence of droughts either immediately prior to the target trials (recent …
The Effects of Consistency among Simultaneous Forecasts on Weather-Related Decisions
People access weather forecasts from multiple sources [mobile telephone applications (“apps”), newspapers, and television] that are not always in agreement for a particular weather event. The experiment reported here investigated the effects of inconsistency among forecasts on user trust, weather-related decisions, and confidence in user decisions. In a computerized task, participants made school-closure decisions on the basis of snow forecasts f…
Do Advisories, Warnings, or Color Coding Matter to Risk Perception and Precautionary Decisions
There are lingering questions about the effectiveness of the watch, warning, and advisory system (WWA) used to convey weather threats in the United States. Recently there has been a shift toward alternative communication strategies such as the impact-based forecast. The study reported here compared users’ interpretation of a color-coded impact-based prototype designed for email briefings, to a legacy WWA format. Participants, including emergency …
Communicating Uncertainty Information in a Dynamic Decision Environment
The likelihood of threatening events is often simplified for members of the public and presented as risk categories such as the “watches” and “warnings” currently issued by National Weather Service in the United States. However, research (e.g., Joslyn and LeClerc) suggests that explicit numeric uncertainty information—for example, 30%—improves people’s understanding as well as their decisions. Whether this benefit extends to dynamic situations in…
The Impact of Forecast Inconsistency and Probabilistic Forecasts on Users’ Trust and Decision-Making
When forecasts for a major weather event begin days in advance, updates may be more accurate but inconsistent with the original forecast. Evidence suggests that resulting inconsistency may reduce user trust. However, adding an uncertainty estimate to the forecast may attenuate any loss of trust due to forecast inconsistency, as has been shown with forecast inaccuracy. To evaluate this hypothesis, this experiment tested the impact on trust of addi…
Forecast Uncertainty Information Improves Multialternative Risky Decision-Making
Research suggests that nonexperts make better decisions in binary decision tasks and have higher trust in forecasts that include numeric uncertainty estimates (e.g., 30% chance) compared to single-value forecasts (e.g., 6-in. snow accumulation). However, in real-world situations in which one must choose between protective action at a cost or risking a larger probabilistic loss, there is often an intermediate option. Two experiments, reported here…
Computer Science (10 obras) · Econometrics (10 obras) · Statistics (8 obras) · Mathematics (7 obras) · Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics (6 obras) · Economics (6 obras) · Forecasting Techniques and Applications (6 obras) · Psychology (6 obras) · Actuarial science (5 obras) · Climate Change Communication and Perception (5 obras)