M J Salganik
Datos Biográficos
| ID | 14532 |
|---|---|
| NOMBRE | M J Salganik |
| NOMBRES | M J |
| APELLIDO | Salganik |
| FIRMA | SALGANIK M J |
| AFILIACIONES | Princeton University |
| ORCID | 0000-0001-8968-1356 |
| VERIFICADO | Sí |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 16 |
| TOTAL DE CITAS | 420 |
| OBRAS COMO AUTOR | 16 |
| OBRAS COMO EDITOR | 0 |
| PRIMER AÑO DE PUBLICACIÓN | 2004 |
| AÑO MÁS RECIENTE DE PUBLICACIÓN | 2023 |
| ÍNDICE H | 5 |
Predicting the future of society
Integrating explanation and prediction in computational social science
Measuring the predictability of life outcomes with a scientific mass collaboration
How predictable are life trajectories? We investigated this question with a scientific mass collaboration using the common task method; 160 teams built predictive models for six life outcomes using data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, a high-quality birth cohort study. Despite using a rich dataset and applying machine-learning methods optimized for prediction, the best predictions were not very accurate and were only slightly…
Introduction to the Special Collection on the Fragile Families Challenge
The Fragile Families Challenge is a scientific mass collaboration designed to measure and understand the predictability of life trajectories. Participants in the Challenge created predictive models of six life outcomes using data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, a high-quality birth cohort study. This Special Collection includes 12 articles describing participants' approaches to predicting these six outcomes as well as 3 artic…
Successes and Struggles with Computational Reproducibility
Reproducibility is fundamental to science, and an important component of reproducibility is computational reproducibility: the ability of a researcher to recreate the results of a published study using the original author's raw data and code. Although most people agree that computational reproducibility is important, it is still difficult to achieve in practice. In this article, the authors describe their approach to enabling computational reprod…
Improving Metadata Infrastructure for Complex Surveys
Researchers rely on metadata systems to prepare data for analysis. As the complexity of data sets increases and the breadth of data analysis practices grow, existing metadata systems can limit the efficiency and quality of data preparation. This article describes the redesign of a metadata system supporting the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study on the basis of the experiences of participants in the Fragile Families Challenge. The authors…
Generalizing the Network Scale-up Method
The network scale-up method enables researchers to estimate the sizes of hidden populations, such as drug injectors and sex workers, using sampled social network data. The basic scale-up estimator offers advantages over other size estimation techniques, but it depends on problematic modeling assumptions. The authors propose a new generalized scale-up estimator that can be used in settings with nonrandom social mixing and imperfect awareness about…
Diagnostics for Respondent-Driven Sampling
Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) is a widely used method for sampling from hard-to-reach human populations, especially populations at higher risk for human immunodeficiency virus or acquired immune deficiency syndrome. Data are collected through a peer referral process over social networks. RDS has proven practical for data collection in many difficult settings and has been adopted by leading public health organizations around the world. Unfortun…
Social Influence
This article examines the role of social influence in the puzzling nature of success in cultural markets: successful cultural products, such as hit songs, best-selling books, and blockbuster movies, are considerably more successful than average; yet which particular songs, books, and movies will become the next ‘big thing’ appears impossible to predict. The article investigates this paradox empirically by constructing a website where more than 27…
How Many People Do You Know?
In this paper we develop a method to estimate both individual social network size (i.e., degree) and the distribution of network sizes in a population by asking respondents how many people they know in specific subpopulations (e.g., people named Michael). Building on the scale-up method of Killworth et al. (1998b) and other previous attempts to estimate individual network size, we propose a latent non-random mixing model which resolves three know…
Assessing respondent-driven sampling
Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) is a network-based technique for estimating traits in hard-to-reach populations, for example, the prevalence of HIV among drug injectors. In recent years RDS has been used in more than 120 studies in more than 20 countries and by leading public health organizations, including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the United States. Despite the widespread use and growing popularity of RDS, there has bee…
The game of contacts
Leading the Herd Astray
Individuals influence each others' decisions about cultural products such as songs, books, and movies; but to what extent can the perception of success become a "self-fulfilling prophecy"? We have explored this question experimentally by artificially inverting the true popularity of songs in an online "music market," in which 12,207 participants listened to and downloaded songs by unknown bands. We found that most songs experienced self-fulfillin…
How Many People Do You Know in Prison?
Networks—sets of objects connected by relationships—are important in a number of fields. The study of networks has long been central to sociology, where researchers have attempted to understand the causes and consequences of the structure of relationships in large groups of people. Using insight from previous network research, Killworth et al. and McCarty et al. have developed and evaluated a method for estimating the sizes of hard-to-count popul…
Variance Estimation, Design Effects, and Sample Size Calculations for Respondent-Driven Sampling
Hidden populations, such as injection drug users and sex workers, are central to a number of public health problems. However, because of the nature of these groups, it is difficult to collect accurate information about them, and this difficulty complicates disease prevention efforts. A recently developed statistical approach called respondent-driven sampling improves our ability to study hidden populations by allowing researchers to make unbiased…
Sampling and Estimation in Hidden Populations Using Respondent-Driven Sampling
Standard statistical methods often provide no way to make accurate estimates about the characteristics of hidden populations such as injection drug users, the homeless, and artists. In this paper, we further develop a sampling and estimation technique called respondent-driven sampling, which allows researchers to make asymptotically unbiased estimates about these hidden populations. The sample is selected with a snowball-type design that can be d…
Sampling and Estimation in Hidden Populations Using Respondent-Driven Sampling
Standard statistical methods often provide no way to make accurate estimates about the characteristics of hidden populations such as injection drug users, the homeless, and artists. In this paper, we further develop a sampling and estimation technique called respondent-driven sampling, which allows researchers to make asymptotically unbiased estimates about these hidden populations. The sample is selected with a snowball-type design that can be d…
Leading the Herd Astray
Individuals influence each others' decisions about cultural products such as songs, books, and movies; but to what extent can the perception of success become a "self-fulfilling prophecy"? We have explored this question experimentally by artificially inverting the true popularity of songs in an online "music market," in which 12,207 participants listened to and downloaded songs by unknown bands. We found that most songs experienced self-fulfillin…
Generalizing the Network Scale-up Method
The network scale-up method enables researchers to estimate the sizes of hidden populations, such as drug injectors and sex workers, using sampled social network data. The basic scale-up estimator offers advantages over other size estimation techniques, but it depends on problematic modeling assumptions. The authors propose a new generalized scale-up estimator that can be used in settings with nonrandom social mixing and imperfect awareness about…
Introduction to the Special Collection on the Fragile Families Challenge
The Fragile Families Challenge is a scientific mass collaboration designed to measure and understand the predictability of life trajectories. Participants in the Challenge created predictive models of six life outcomes using data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, a high-quality birth cohort study. This Special Collection includes 12 articles describing participants' approaches to predicting these six outcomes as well as 3 artic…
Successes and Struggles with Computational Reproducibility
Reproducibility is fundamental to science, and an important component of reproducibility is computational reproducibility: the ability of a researcher to recreate the results of a published study using the original author's raw data and code. Although most people agree that computational reproducibility is important, it is still difficult to achieve in practice. In this article, the authors describe their approach to enabling computational reprod…
Improving Metadata Infrastructure for Complex Surveys
Researchers rely on metadata systems to prepare data for analysis. As the complexity of data sets increases and the breadth of data analysis practices grow, existing metadata systems can limit the efficiency and quality of data preparation. This article describes the redesign of a metadata system supporting the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study on the basis of the experiences of participants in the Fragile Families Challenge. The authors…
Sampling and Estimation in Hidden Populations Using Respondent-Driven Sampling
Standard statistical methods often provide no way to make accurate estimates about the characteristics of hidden populations such as injection drug users, the homeless, and artists. In this paper, we further develop a sampling and estimation technique called respondent-driven sampling, which allows researchers to make asymptotically unbiased estimates about these hidden populations. The sample is selected with a snowball-type design that can be d…
How Many People Do You Know in Prison?
Networks—sets of objects connected by relationships—are important in a number of fields. The study of networks has long been central to sociology, where researchers have attempted to understand the causes and consequences of the structure of relationships in large groups of people. Using insight from previous network research, Killworth et al. and McCarty et al. have developed and evaluated a method for estimating the sizes of hard-to-count popul…
Variance Estimation, Design Effects, and Sample Size Calculations for Respondent-Driven Sampling
Hidden populations, such as injection drug users and sex workers, are central to a number of public health problems. However, because of the nature of these groups, it is difficult to collect accurate information about them, and this difficulty complicates disease prevention efforts. A recently developed statistical approach called respondent-driven sampling improves our ability to study hidden populations by allowing researchers to make unbiased…
Leading the Herd Astray
Individuals influence each others' decisions about cultural products such as songs, books, and movies; but to what extent can the perception of success become a "self-fulfilling prophecy"? We have explored this question experimentally by artificially inverting the true popularity of songs in an online "music market," in which 12,207 participants listened to and downloaded songs by unknown bands. We found that most songs experienced self-fulfillin…
How Many People Do You Know?
In this paper we develop a method to estimate both individual social network size (i.e., degree) and the distribution of network sizes in a population by asking respondents how many people they know in specific subpopulations (e.g., people named Michael). Building on the scale-up method of Killworth et al. (1998b) and other previous attempts to estimate individual network size, we propose a latent non-random mixing model which resolves three know…
Assessing respondent-driven sampling
Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) is a network-based technique for estimating traits in hard-to-reach populations, for example, the prevalence of HIV among drug injectors. In recent years RDS has been used in more than 120 studies in more than 20 countries and by leading public health organizations, including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the United States. Despite the widespread use and growing popularity of RDS, there has bee…
The game of contacts
Social Influence
This article examines the role of social influence in the puzzling nature of success in cultural markets: successful cultural products, such as hit songs, best-selling books, and blockbuster movies, are considerably more successful than average; yet which particular songs, books, and movies will become the next ‘big thing’ appears impossible to predict. The article investigates this paradox empirically by constructing a website where more than 27…
Diagnostics for Respondent-Driven Sampling
Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) is a widely used method for sampling from hard-to-reach human populations, especially populations at higher risk for human immunodeficiency virus or acquired immune deficiency syndrome. Data are collected through a peer referral process over social networks. RDS has proven practical for data collection in many difficult settings and has been adopted by leading public health organizations around the world. Unfortun…
Generalizing the Network Scale-up Method
The network scale-up method enables researchers to estimate the sizes of hidden populations, such as drug injectors and sex workers, using sampled social network data. The basic scale-up estimator offers advantages over other size estimation techniques, but it depends on problematic modeling assumptions. The authors propose a new generalized scale-up estimator that can be used in settings with nonrandom social mixing and imperfect awareness about…
Introduction to the Special Collection on the Fragile Families Challenge
The Fragile Families Challenge is a scientific mass collaboration designed to measure and understand the predictability of life trajectories. Participants in the Challenge created predictive models of six life outcomes using data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, a high-quality birth cohort study. This Special Collection includes 12 articles describing participants' approaches to predicting these six outcomes as well as 3 artic…
Successes and Struggles with Computational Reproducibility
Reproducibility is fundamental to science, and an important component of reproducibility is computational reproducibility: the ability of a researcher to recreate the results of a published study using the original author's raw data and code. Although most people agree that computational reproducibility is important, it is still difficult to achieve in practice. In this article, the authors describe their approach to enabling computational reprod…
Improving Metadata Infrastructure for Complex Surveys
Researchers rely on metadata systems to prepare data for analysis. As the complexity of data sets increases and the breadth of data analysis practices grow, existing metadata systems can limit the efficiency and quality of data preparation. This article describes the redesign of a metadata system supporting the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study on the basis of the experiences of participants in the Fragile Families Challenge. The authors…
Measuring the predictability of life outcomes with a scientific mass collaboration
How predictable are life trajectories? We investigated this question with a scientific mass collaboration using the common task method; 160 teams built predictive models for six life outcomes using data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, a high-quality birth cohort study. Despite using a rich dataset and applying machine-learning methods optimized for prediction, the best predictions were not very accurate and were only slightly…
Integrating explanation and prediction in computational social science
Predicting the future of society
Computer Science (15 obras) · Mathematics (11 obras) · Statistics (10 obras) · Psychology (7 obras) · Data science (6 obras) · HIV, Drug Use, Sexual Risk (6 obras) · Sociology (6 obras) · Complex Network Analysis Techniques (5 obras) · Econometrics (5 obras) · HIV/AIDS Research and Interventions (5 obras)