Thomas M Carsey
Datos Biográficos
| ID | 1535339 |
|---|---|
| NOMBRE | Thomas M Carsey |
| NOMBRES | Thomas M |
| APELLIDO | Carsey |
| FIRMA | CARSEY T M |
| AFILIACIONES | University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-7564-1246 |
| VERIFICADO | Sí |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 32 |
| TOTAL DE CITAS | 1631 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 32 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 0 |
| PRIMER AÑO DE PUBLICACIÓN | 1995 |
| AÑO MÁS RECIENTE DE PUBLICACIÓN | 2020 |
| ÍNDICE H | 12 |
Evidence of Conflict Extension in Partisans’ Evaluations of People and Inanimate Objects
Prior research shows that partisan bias affects evaluations of people in nonpolitical settings, but it is unclear to what extent this bias informs evaluations of objects other than people in similar contexts. This is an important limitation given the frequency with which brands, locations, and products are associated with parties and political figures. We examine whether partisan bias influences evaluations of inanimate objects in the same way th…
Two-stage elections, strategic candidates, and campaign agendas
Monte Carlo Simulation and Resampling Methods for Social Science
1. Introduction 2. Probability 3. Introduction to R 4. Random Number Generation 5 .Statistical Simulation of the Linear Model 6. Simulating Generalized Linear Models 7. Testing Theory Using Simulation 8. Resampling Methods 9. Other Simulation-Based Methods 10. Final Thoughts
What’s a losing party to do? The calculus of contesting state legislative elections
Making DA-RT a Reality
Calls for greater data access and research transparency have emerged on many fronts within professional social science. For example, the American Political Science Association (APSA) recently adopted new guidelines for data access and research transparency. APSA has also appointed the Data Access and Research Transparency (DA-RT) ad hoc committee to continue exploring these issues. DA-RT sponsored this symposium. In addition, funding agencies lik…
Racial stereotypes, racial context, and the 2008 presidential election
As the first African-American nominee for president of a major political party, Barack Obama's campaign and ultimate victory reminded voters, scholars, pundits, and the press of the centrality of race in American political life. Speculation by observers of all types centered around the potential impact of race as an individual psychological prejudice and/or as a geographic/contextual factor. These two themes parallel different leading scholarly t…
Monte Carlo Simulation and Resampling Methods for Social Science
Taking the topics of a quantitative methodology course and illustrating them through Monte Carlo simulation, this book examines abstract principles, such as bias, efficiency, and measures of uncertainty in an intuitive, visual way. Instead of thinking in the abstract about what would happen to a particular estimator 'in repeated samples', the book uses simulation to actually create those repeated samples and summarise the results
Balancing constituency representation and party responsiveness in the US Senate
Strategic Candidates, Campaign Dynamics, and Campaign Advertising in Gubernatorial Races
Political campaigns are dynamic struggles between candidates to define the informational context for voters. Although much research describes how campaigns unfold or explores their effects on voters, less attention has been given to developing and testing a dynamic theory of candidate interaction during campaigns. In this study, the authors examine three different theories of candidate behavior, testing each using data on the TV advertisements ai…
New Measures of Partisanship, Ideology, and Policy Mood in the American States
We construct measures of U.S. state partisan identification, self-reported ideology, and policy mood using data from the 2000 and 2004 National Annenberg Election Surveys (NAES) and the 2006 Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES). These measures improve on existing methods for estimating state-level preferences because the surveys provide larger state samples without pooling across years. After detailing our methods for constructing the …
Activists and Conflict Extension in American Party Politics
Party activists have played a leading role in "conflict extension"-the polarization of the parties along multiple issue dimensions-in contemporary American politics. We argue that open nomination systems and the ambitious politicians competing within those systems encourage activists with extreme views on a variety of issue dimensions to become involved in party politics, thus motivating candidates to take noncentrist positions on a range of issu…
State Legislative Elections, 1967–2003
More than 15 years—nine election cycles—have passed since a comprehensive set of state legislative election data was compiled and made available to researchers and practitioners: the Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research's (ICPSR) State Legislative Election Returns in the United States dataset (Study #8907) collected by Malcolm Jewell (Jewell 1991) and containing observations from 1967 to 1988. With this hiatus in mind, we…
US Senate campaigns, negative advertising, and voter mobilization in the 1998 midterm election
Public and Private Institutions, Political Action, and the Practice of Local Government
State Party Context and Norms among Delegates to the 2000 National Party Conventions
Political scientists have increasingly viewed party activists as important catalysts for party behavior and change in American politics. Understanding the decisionmaking norms of these activists should help inform scholars' broader understanding of party performance. We examine the norms of party decisionmaking expressed by a select group of party activists: delegates to both parties' 2000 national conventions. We focus on how state contextual fa…
Party Polarization in American Politics
Recent commentary points to clear increases in ideological polarization between the major American political parties. We review the theoretical and empirical literature on party polarization and partisan change. We begin by comparing the current period both to earlier political eras and to theories of partisan change. We argue that in the current period the parties have grown increasingly divided on all the major policy dimensions in American pol…
Changing Sides or Changing Minds? Party Identification and Policy Preferences in the American Electorate
Scholars have long debated the individual‐level relationship between partisanship and policy preferences. We argue that partisanship and issue attitudes cause changes in each other, but the pattern of influence varies systematically. Issue‐based change in party identification should occur among individuals who are aware of party differences on an issue and find that issue to be salient. Individuals who are aware of party differences, but do not a…
Policy Balancing and Preferences for Party Control of Government
Policy Balancing and Preferences for Party Control of Government
Divided party control of government is one of the defining features of contemporary American politics. Of the competing theories offered to account for this phenomenon, the notion of policy balancing offered by Fiorina (1988, 1992, 1996) and Alesina and Rosenthal (1995) has garnered the most attention, though it has received limited empirical support. The lack of support stems in part from: (1) the failure to separate voter preferences for party …
Party Polarization and Party Structuring of Policy Attitudes
Party Polarization and "Conflict Extension" in the American Electorate
agendas have remained distinct, but the parties in the electorate have grown more polarized on all three. Conflict extension. rather than conflict displacement or ideological realign? ment, has occurred because there has been a limited mass response to the growth of elite-level party polar? ization. Only party identifiers who are aware of party elite polarization on each of the issue dimensions have
Group Effects on Party Identification and Party Coalitions across the United States
Most examinations of the sociodemographic group foundations of political party identification and party coalitions in the United States rely on national samples (e.g., the National Election Studies). Therefore, they fail to consider (a) state-to-state variation in the group components of party identification and party coalitions and (b) how state context structures this variation. We rely on media exit polls from the 1988, 1992, and 1996 election…
Misreport of Vote Choice in U.S. Senate and Gubernatorial Elections
Previous research has found strong evidence of a pro-winner vote misreport bias in the National Election Studies (NES). We extend this research by examining the reported vote for U.S. senator and governor in the 1990, 1992, and 1994 NES and in the 1990 and 1992 Senate Election Studies (SES). We find continuing evidence of a pro-winner misreport problem. In contrast, we uncover no significant pro-winner bias in state exit polls conducted by the me…
Campaign Dynamics
The reciprocal relationship between state defense interest and committee representation in Congress
Party Polarization and "Conflict Extension" in the American Electorate
agendas have remained distinct, but the parties in the electorate have grown more polarized on all three. Conflict extension. rather than conflict displacement or ideological realign? ment, has occurred because there has been a limited mass response to the growth of elite-level party polar? ization. Only party identifiers who are aware of party elite polarization on each of the issue dimensions have
Changing Sides or Changing Minds? Party Identification and Policy Preferences in the American Electorate
Scholars have long debated the individual‐level relationship between partisanship and policy preferences. We argue that partisanship and issue attitudes cause changes in each other, but the pattern of influence varies systematically. Issue‐based change in party identification should occur among individuals who are aware of party differences on an issue and find that issue to be salient. Individuals who are aware of party differences, but do not a…
Party Polarization in American Politics
Recent commentary points to clear increases in ideological polarization between the major American political parties. We review the theoretical and empirical literature on party polarization and partisan change. We begin by comparing the current period both to earlier political eras and to theories of partisan change. We argue that in the current period the parties have grown increasingly divided on all the major policy dimensions in American pol…
Activists and Conflict Extension in American Party Politics
Party activists have played a leading role in "conflict extension"-the polarization of the parties along multiple issue dimensions-in contemporary American politics. We argue that open nomination systems and the ambitious politicians competing within those systems encourage activists with extreme views on a variety of issue dimensions to become involved in party politics, thus motivating candidates to take noncentrist positions on a range of issu…
State and National Factors in Gubernatorial and Senatorial Elections
Theory: Voters link candidates for govemor and senator to the president through partisanship. However, voters also distinguish between the functional responsibilities that govemors and U.S. senators have regarding the health of state and national economies, respectively. Hypotheses: Voting in elections for both governor and senator should respond to presidential approval. Voting in senate elections should respond to evaluations of the national ec…
The Contextual Effects of Race on White Voter Behavior
This analysis brings together two long-standing research traditions in political science. One tradition, beginning with Key (1949), focuses on the negative reaction white voters exhibit when located in areas of relatively higher levels of black voter density as measured at the county and/or state level. The second tradition, which can be traced back to Tingsten (1963) and Berelson, Lazarsfeld, and McPhee (1954), illustrates how the immediate soci…
Party Polarization and Party Structuring of Policy Attitudes
Party and Committee in Distributive Politics
Recent studies of the domestic distribution of military procurement expenditures and representation on congressional defense committees support the traditional committee-centered distributive theory of congressional policymaking in a manner consistent with the assumption that Congress is organized to produce gains from exchange among legislators with diverse interests via intercommittee logrolling. This paper compares the committee-centered distr…
US Senate campaigns, negative advertising, and voter mobilization in the 1998 midterm election
New Measures of Partisanship, Ideology, and Policy Mood in the American States
We construct measures of U.S. state partisan identification, self-reported ideology, and policy mood using data from the 2000 and 2004 National Annenberg Election Surveys (NAES) and the 2006 Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES). These measures improve on existing methods for estimating state-level preferences because the surveys provide larger state samples without pooling across years. After detailing our methods for constructing the …
Strategic Candidates, Campaign Dynamics, and Campaign Advertising in Gubernatorial Races
Political campaigns are dynamic struggles between candidates to define the informational context for voters. Although much research describes how campaigns unfold or explores their effects on voters, less attention has been given to developing and testing a dynamic theory of candidate interaction during campaigns. In this study, the authors examine three different theories of candidate behavior, testing each using data on the TV advertisements ai…
Two-stage elections, strategic candidates, and campaign agendas
Balancing constituency representation and party responsiveness in the US Senate
Policy Balancing and Preferences for Party Control of Government
Divided party control of government is one of the defining features of contemporary American politics. Of the competing theories offered to account for this phenomenon, the notion of policy balancing offered by Fiorina (1988, 1992, 1996) and Alesina and Rosenthal (1995) has garnered the most attention, though it has received limited empirical support. The lack of support stems in part from: (1) the failure to separate voter preferences for party …
Why Do Party Activists Convert? An Analysis of Individual-Level Change on the Abortion Issue
The conversion of continuing party activists to new policy positions plays an important role in the process of partisan change. Although a number of scholars have shown that conversion among continuing activ ists at the aggregate level contributes to overall ideological change within the parties, political scientists have devoted little attention to the factors associated with attitudinal conversion among individual activists. In this article, we…
A Dynamic Model of Political Change Among Party Activists
State Legislative Elections, 1967–2003
More than 15 years—nine election cycles—have passed since a comprehensive set of state legislative election data was compiled and made available to researchers and practitioners: the Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research's (ICPSR) State Legislative Election Returns in the United States dataset (Study #8907) collected by Malcolm Jewell (Jewell 1991) and containing observations from 1967 to 1988. With this hiatus in mind, we…
Misreport of Vote Choice in U.S. Senate and Gubernatorial Elections
Previous research has found strong evidence of a pro-winner vote misreport bias in the National Election Studies (NES). We extend this research by examining the reported vote for U.S. senator and governor in the 1990, 1992, and 1994 NES and in the 1990 and 1992 Senate Election Studies (SES). We find continuing evidence of a pro-winner misreport problem. In contrast, we uncover no significant pro-winner bias in state exit polls conducted by the me…
Evidence of Conflict Extension in Partisans’ Evaluations of People and Inanimate Objects
Prior research shows that partisan bias affects evaluations of people in nonpolitical settings, but it is unclear to what extent this bias informs evaluations of objects other than people in similar contexts. This is an important limitation given the frequency with which brands, locations, and products are associated with parties and political figures. We examine whether partisan bias influences evaluations of inanimate objects in the same way th…
The reciprocal relationship between state defense interest and committee representation in Congress
What’s a losing party to do? The calculus of contesting state legislative elections
State and National Factors in Gubernatorial and Senatorial Elections
In their reply, Atkeson and Partin (1998) take issue with our replication and extension of their original paper (Carsey and Wright 1998) on three fronts. First, they claim that we overemphasize and possibly misinterpret the nature of the bias in reported voting behavior in the American National Election Study (ANES) series regarding subpresidential elections. Second, they claim our inclusion of state dummy variables mistakenly swamps important su…
Racial stereotypes, racial context, and the 2008 presidential election
As the first African-American nominee for president of a major political party, Barack Obama's campaign and ultimate victory reminded voters, scholars, pundits, and the press of the centrality of race in American political life. Speculation by observers of all types centered around the potential impact of race as an individual psychological prejudice and/or as a geographic/contextual factor. These two themes parallel different leading scholarly t…
State Party Context and Norms among Delegates to the 2000 National Party Conventions
Political scientists have increasingly viewed party activists as important catalysts for party behavior and change in American politics. Understanding the decisionmaking norms of these activists should help inform scholars' broader understanding of party performance. We examine the norms of party decisionmaking expressed by a select group of party activists: delegates to both parties' 2000 national conventions. We focus on how state contextual fa…
Group Components of U.S. Presidential Voting Across the States
The Contextual Effects of Race on White Voter Behavior
This analysis brings together two long-standing research traditions in political science. One tradition, beginning with Key (1949), focuses on the negative reaction white voters exhibit when located in areas of relatively higher levels of black voter density as measured at the county and/or state level. The second tradition, which can be traced back to Tingsten (1963) and Berelson, Lazarsfeld, and McPhee (1954), illustrates how the immediate soci…
Why Do Party Activists Convert? An Analysis of Individual-Level Change on the Abortion Issue
The conversion of continuing party activists to new policy positions plays an important role in the process of partisan change. Although a number of scholars have shown that conversion among continuing activ ists at the aggregate level contributes to overall ideological change within the parties, political scientists have devoted little attention to the factors associated with attitudinal conversion among individual activists. In this article, we…
State and National Factors in Gubernatorial and Senatorial Elections
Theory: Voters link candidates for govemor and senator to the president through partisanship. However, voters also distinguish between the functional responsibilities that govemors and U.S. senators have regarding the health of state and national economies, respectively. Hypotheses: Voting in elections for both governor and senator should respond to presidential approval. Voting in senate elections should respond to evaluations of the national ec…
State and National Factors in Gubernatorial and Senatorial Elections
In their reply, Atkeson and Partin (1998) take issue with our replication and extension of their original paper (Carsey and Wright 1998) on three fronts. First, they claim that we overemphasize and possibly misinterpret the nature of the bias in reported voting behavior in the American National Election Study (ANES) series regarding subpresidential elections. Second, they claim our inclusion of state dummy variables mistakenly swamps important su…
The reciprocal relationship between state defense interest and committee representation in Congress
Group Components of U.S. Presidential Voting Across the States
Party and Committee in Distributive Politics
Recent studies of the domestic distribution of military procurement expenditures and representation on congressional defense committees support the traditional committee-centered distributive theory of congressional policymaking in a manner consistent with the assumption that Congress is organized to produce gains from exchange among legislators with diverse interests via intercommittee logrolling. This paper compares the committee-centered distr…
A Dynamic Model of Political Change Among Party Activists
Campaign Dynamics
Misreport of Vote Choice in U.S. Senate and Gubernatorial Elections
Previous research has found strong evidence of a pro-winner vote misreport bias in the National Election Studies (NES). We extend this research by examining the reported vote for U.S. senator and governor in the 1990, 1992, and 1994 NES and in the 1990 and 1992 Senate Election Studies (SES). We find continuing evidence of a pro-winner misreport problem. In contrast, we uncover no significant pro-winner bias in state exit polls conducted by the me…
Party Polarization and Party Structuring of Policy Attitudes
Party Polarization and "Conflict Extension" in the American Electorate
agendas have remained distinct, but the parties in the electorate have grown more polarized on all three. Conflict extension. rather than conflict displacement or ideological realign? ment, has occurred because there has been a limited mass response to the growth of elite-level party polar? ization. Only party identifiers who are aware of party elite polarization on each of the issue dimensions have
Group Effects on Party Identification and Party Coalitions across the United States
Most examinations of the sociodemographic group foundations of political party identification and party coalitions in the United States rely on national samples (e.g., the National Election Studies). Therefore, they fail to consider (a) state-to-state variation in the group components of party identification and party coalitions and (b) how state context structures this variation. We rely on media exit polls from the 1988, 1992, and 1996 election…
Policy Balancing and Preferences for Party Control of Government
Policy Balancing and Preferences for Party Control of Government
Divided party control of government is one of the defining features of contemporary American politics. Of the competing theories offered to account for this phenomenon, the notion of policy balancing offered by Fiorina (1988, 1992, 1996) and Alesina and Rosenthal (1995) has garnered the most attention, though it has received limited empirical support. The lack of support stems in part from: (1) the failure to separate voter preferences for party …
Public and Private Institutions, Political Action, and the Practice of Local Government
State Party Context and Norms among Delegates to the 2000 National Party Conventions
Political scientists have increasingly viewed party activists as important catalysts for party behavior and change in American politics. Understanding the decisionmaking norms of these activists should help inform scholars' broader understanding of party performance. We examine the norms of party decisionmaking expressed by a select group of party activists: delegates to both parties' 2000 national conventions. We focus on how state contextual fa…
Party Polarization in American Politics
Recent commentary points to clear increases in ideological polarization between the major American political parties. We review the theoretical and empirical literature on party polarization and partisan change. We begin by comparing the current period both to earlier political eras and to theories of partisan change. We argue that in the current period the parties have grown increasingly divided on all the major policy dimensions in American pol…
Changing Sides or Changing Minds? Party Identification and Policy Preferences in the American Electorate
Scholars have long debated the individual‐level relationship between partisanship and policy preferences. We argue that partisanship and issue attitudes cause changes in each other, but the pattern of influence varies systematically. Issue‐based change in party identification should occur among individuals who are aware of party differences on an issue and find that issue to be salient. Individuals who are aware of party differences, but do not a…
US Senate campaigns, negative advertising, and voter mobilization in the 1998 midterm election
State Legislative Elections, 1967–2003
More than 15 years—nine election cycles—have passed since a comprehensive set of state legislative election data was compiled and made available to researchers and practitioners: the Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research's (ICPSR) State Legislative Election Returns in the United States dataset (Study #8907) collected by Malcolm Jewell (Jewell 1991) and containing observations from 1967 to 1988. With this hiatus in mind, we…
New Measures of Partisanship, Ideology, and Policy Mood in the American States
We construct measures of U.S. state partisan identification, self-reported ideology, and policy mood using data from the 2000 and 2004 National Annenberg Election Surveys (NAES) and the 2006 Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES). These measures improve on existing methods for estimating state-level preferences because the surveys provide larger state samples without pooling across years. After detailing our methods for constructing the …
Activists and Conflict Extension in American Party Politics
Party activists have played a leading role in "conflict extension"-the polarization of the parties along multiple issue dimensions-in contemporary American politics. We argue that open nomination systems and the ambitious politicians competing within those systems encourage activists with extreme views on a variety of issue dimensions to become involved in party politics, thus motivating candidates to take noncentrist positions on a range of issu…
Strategic Candidates, Campaign Dynamics, and Campaign Advertising in Gubernatorial Races
Political campaigns are dynamic struggles between candidates to define the informational context for voters. Although much research describes how campaigns unfold or explores their effects on voters, less attention has been given to developing and testing a dynamic theory of candidate interaction during campaigns. In this study, the authors examine three different theories of candidate behavior, testing each using data on the TV advertisements ai…
Balancing constituency representation and party responsiveness in the US Senate
Political science (29 obras) · Politics (27 obras) · Electoral Systems and Political Participation (26 obras) · Law (24 obras) · Law (23 obras) · Sociology (18 obras) · Computer Science (17 obras) · Public Administration (15 obras) · Public Administration (15 obras) · Economics (13 obras)