Leonid Issaev
Datos Biográficos
| ID | 167318 |
|---|---|
| NOMBRE | Leonid Issaev |
| NOMBRES | Leonid |
| APELLIDO | Issaev |
| FIRMA | ISSAEV L |
| AFILIACIONES | National Research University Higher School of Economics |
| ORCID | 0000-0003-4748-1078 |
| VERIFICADO | Sí |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 28 |
| TOTAL DE CITAS | 27 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 26 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 2 |
| PRIMER AÑO DE PUBLICACIÓN | 2014 |
| AÑO MÁS RECIENTE DE PUBLICACIÓN | 2025 |
| ÍNDICE H | 3 |
August 2024 Events in Nigeria (Failed Coupvolution in the Context of West African Political Processes)
The article examines the possibility of interpreting the August 2024 events in Nigeria as a failed coupvolution i.e., a special type of revolutionary process that involves a combination of revolutionary mobilization of the masses with a military coup. At the same time, the authors demonstrate the feasibility of distinguishing two types of coupvolutions. While within the first type of coupvolutions mass revolutionary mobilization aimed at overthro…
Comoros
The article is devoted to the political evolution of the Union of the Comoros, an island state whose strategic location imperatively and firmly involves it in the geopolitical processes in the Indian Ocean basin. A small country located on islands objectively gravitates toward centralization, but the desire to return the island of Mayotte, held by France, forced its political elites to turn to federalism after gaining independence. The simultaneo…
Islamist State Formation in Somalia
This article examines the trajectory of jihadist state-building in Somalia from the early 1990s to the present, focusing on the evolution of Islamist governance projects initiated by Al-Ittihad al-Islami*, the Union of Islamic Courts*, Al-Shabaab*, and the Islamic State's Somali affiliate (Wilayat al-Sumal*). Drawing on field research conducted in Somalia in May 2023, expert interviews, as well as reports from research centers, government institu…
On coupvolution
The theory of revolutions has faced major challenges, one of the most important being how to conceptualize revolutions. The theory currently needs novel foci. One potential novel concept is "coupvolution," which can be defined as a type of revolutionary events with elements of both a coup and a revolution. We highlight the importance of a recent failed coupvolution in Nigeria. We examine Mark Beissinger's conceptualization of coupvolution, and pr…
Terrorism and Political Contention
Operation of the Russian Aerospace Forces in Syria in the Official Russian Discourse
In this article, we analyze how the operation of the Russian Aerospace forces is presented in the official Russian discourse. The analysis is based on a collected database of statements made by the Russian authorities. Relying on social identity theory, we argue that the Russian operation in Syria became a key element in changing the Russian strategy in the Middle East. In other words, beginning in the mid-2010s, Russian policy in the Middle East…
Russian Policy of Securitization in Africa
The study focuses on the perception of the Russian military presence in Africa. The 1990s and early 2000s saw a long break in Russian-African relations, linked to Russia’s priority of establishing a dialogue with Western countries. Largely as a result, Russia managed to avoid getting involved in conflicts and maintain respectful relations with African countries. In recent years, however, Russia’s “return” to Africa has revitalized Moscow’s intere…
“Perestroika” à la Nigérien
The article is devoted to the study of the events that transpired in Niger in July 2023, which led to the overthrow of President Mohamed Bazum by members of his own guard, under the command of Abdrahman Tchiani. The fieldwork and interview materials that the authors gathered in Niger in September 2023 are used in this article. It is demonstrated that an escalated intra-elite conflict that started to fester as soon as Mohamed Bazum was elected pre…
New Wave of Revolutions in the Mena Region
The Global Terrorist Threat in the Sahel and the Origins of Terrorism in Burkina Faso
The article examines the reasons for the increasing terrorist activity in Burkina Faso after the revolution in 2014. For decades, the Sahel has been one of the most unstable regions in Africa and the Afrasian zone of instability. However, in the 2010s the Sahel has experienced a dramatic increase in terrorist activity: by 2015, the number of terrorist attacks there increased more than seven times compared to 2010. At the same time, the dynamics o…
Islamic education in Russia
The collapse of the Soviet system in the North Caucasus was accompanied by re-Islamization, which, among other things, was facilitated by growing influence of the religious and governmental actors from the Middle East. The upsurge of Islam manifested the increased demand for religious education. Some Muslims in Russia, mostly middle-age ones, and the elders, stood for restoration of pre-Soviet Islamic traditions. Others, the youth, oriented to th…
Dynastic Sacredness
The ruling dynasty of Morocco is one of very few that tracks its royal bloodline back to the Prophet Muhammad himself. Did this lineage contribute to the fact that the North African monarchy was barely touched by the tumultuous Arab Spring of 2011–12? This article challenges such assertions. Despite its divine inception, Moroccan royal power survived the era of modernity solely thanks to the French, who invested in their colony during the protect…
A Troubled Return to the Homeland
The humanitarian crisis in Syria has fuelled the Circassian issue in Russia. Escaping from the war, hundreds of Syrian Circassians (Adyghe) chose Russia as their destination because their ancestors came to the Middle East from the North Caucasus. Syrian Circassians have faced difficulties in entering Russia and staying there regardless of the state’s ability to accept a large number of immigrants. In the case of receiving Syrian Adyghe, Russian a…
Perceptions of Russia's 'return' to Africa
The article focuses on the perception of Russia’s ‘return’ to Africa through an analysis of field research data from three African states: Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, gathered in late 2021. In this article, the authors argue that the Russian ‘return’ to Africa, which is primarily seen in the provision of security services through the presence of Russian private military companies (PMCs), is perceived positively in West Africa. An important role…
Federalism in the Middle East
Framing the Syrian Conflict in the Russian Federal Media
The article analyzes features of the coverage of the Syrian conflict by the Russian media. Empirically, the study is based on the articles published in 2015—2019 in the most cited federal media resources — the online edition of RIA Novosti, as well as the newspapers Izvestia and Vedomos ti. The authors employ the method of the qualitative content analysis in the MAXQDA program. Given the extremely important role that framing plays in media resour…
Russia and the New Middle East
Russian policy in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) has undergone significant changes since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Moscow’s actions in the region have began to acquire a less ideologically driving and more pragmatic character. However, the Arab Spring and conflict in Ukraine have underscored a more aggressive policy on the part of Russia, the quintessence of which was military intervention in an armed conflict far from its border…
Framing of the Syrian Conflict in the Russian Media
The research studies the features of coverage of the Syrian conflict by Russian media. In scientific discourse, there are a number of works studying the information support for the civil war in Syria, which is explained by its specificity – a multilateral, multi-level protracted conflict creates an opportunity for a varied interpretation of events and causal relationships. The way events in Syria are presented in various regions of Russia is of p…
Diversifying relationships
The interaction between Russia and Gulf countries represents the story of ups and downs, severe conflicts and sharp warmings that can largely be explained by the permanently changing role and place of each of these players at the global and Middle Eastern political arenas. After Russia's "return" to the Middle East in 2012-2015, Moscow's foreign policy towards the Gulf can be explained in terms of a bargaining strategy. On the one hand, Russia is…
Russia’s Policy towards the Middle East
Yemen occupies a peripheral place in Russian foreign policy for three reasons: lack of serious economic interest, the illusory potential of strengthening the military presence there and recognition of Saudi Arabia’s role in the Yemeni conflict. However, a deepening of the split within the Arab coalition in Yemen, primarily between the UAE and Saudi Arabia, has not only forced the Russian authorities to seek a balance between Yemeni actors, but al…
Jihad as a Form of Political Protest
This article presents the evolution of the concepts of jihād from the minimalist and maximalist approaches. In the present article one can find two conceptions: the conception of liminality and the conception of re-Islamisation. Liminality is a form of structural crisis that appears as a result of the split within the Islamic spiritual elite and Muslim community itself. The period of liminality is characterised by political and social instability…
Decentralization in Libya after the Arab Spring
Internet Censorship in Arab Countries
Internet censorship remains one of the most common methods of state control over the media. Reasons for filtering cyberspace include ensuring the security of the current regime, attempts to limit all kinds of opposition movements, and the protection of the religious and moral norms of society. In Arab countries, where religion plays a major role in the sociopolitical sphere, the latter is particularly important. Since, in Islamic law, there is no…
From Fitnah to Thaura
Since 2011, the Arab world has entered a period of political turbulence accompanied by widespread growth of protest activity. The events that were metaphorically called the "Arab Spring" referring to the "Spring of Nations" of 1848, affected virtually all countries of the Middle East and North Africa. In Libya, Syria, and Yemen, antigovernment demonstrations led to almost complete destruction of statehood raising the question of the existence of …
Egyptian coup of 2013
The article is devoted to an 'econometric' analysis of the events in Egypt that happened in summer 2013. The analysis of the Egyptian Stock Exchange indices suggests that the 2013 Egyptian coup d'état was prepared to a very considerable extent by the reconciliation between the Egyptian economic and military elites. It also suggests some additional hints regarding the split between the Arabian monarchies (Qatar, on the one hand, and Saudi Arabia, …
The Arab Spring
The quantitative analysis of the Arab Spring events is a rather difficult task. Respective difficulties are related to the variety of factors affecting social instability, and to individual peculiarities of historical, cultural, socio-economic, and political processes in the region. As a result of the research, we found out that the processes of social and political destabilization in the countries of Arab Spring were caused by a complex set of f…
Female Labor Force Participation Rate, Islam, and Arab Culture in Cross-Cultural Perspective
Burton and Reitz suggested that Islam should tend to decrease the levels of female labor force participation rate, because “societies that seclude their women by means of purdah or similar customs will have lower rates of female participation in activities outside of the immediate household.” Our cross-cultural tests have supported this hypothesis. However, a closer analysis shows that a high correlation is predicted mostly by the “Arab factor,” …
Center-Periphery Dissonance as a Possible Factor of the Revolutionary Wave of 2013-2014
Jack Goldstone proposes three predictors for acute social and political destabilization during the revolutionary wave of 2013-2014: (a) an intermediate level of per capita GDP, (b) a high level of corruption, and (c) a transitional type of political regime. After testing this theory on a broader sample, this study suggests and finds support for another predictor—“center-periphery dissonance” for the destabilization of the 2013-2014 wave. The emer…
Diversifying relationships
The interaction between Russia and Gulf countries represents the story of ups and downs, severe conflicts and sharp warmings that can largely be explained by the permanently changing role and place of each of these players at the global and Middle Eastern political arenas. After Russia's "return" to the Middle East in 2012-2015, Moscow's foreign policy towards the Gulf can be explained in terms of a bargaining strategy. On the one hand, Russia is…
Egyptian coup of 2013
The article is devoted to an 'econometric' analysis of the events in Egypt that happened in summer 2013. The analysis of the Egyptian Stock Exchange indices suggests that the 2013 Egyptian coup d'état was prepared to a very considerable extent by the reconciliation between the Egyptian economic and military elites. It also suggests some additional hints regarding the split between the Arabian monarchies (Qatar, on the one hand, and Saudi Arabia, …
Perceptions of Russia's 'return' to Africa
The article focuses on the perception of Russia’s ‘return’ to Africa through an analysis of field research data from three African states: Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, gathered in late 2021. In this article, the authors argue that the Russian ‘return’ to Africa, which is primarily seen in the provision of security services through the presence of Russian private military companies (PMCs), is perceived positively in West Africa. An important role…
Decentralization in Libya after the Arab Spring
The Arab Spring
The quantitative analysis of the Arab Spring events is a rather difficult task. Respective difficulties are related to the variety of factors affecting social instability, and to individual peculiarities of historical, cultural, socio-economic, and political processes in the region. As a result of the research, we found out that the processes of social and political destabilization in the countries of Arab Spring were caused by a complex set of f…
Female Labor Force Participation Rate, Islam, and Arab Culture in Cross-Cultural Perspective
Burton and Reitz suggested that Islam should tend to decrease the levels of female labor force participation rate, because “societies that seclude their women by means of purdah or similar customs will have lower rates of female participation in activities outside of the immediate household.” Our cross-cultural tests have supported this hypothesis. However, a closer analysis shows that a high correlation is predicted mostly by the “Arab factor,” …
Center-Periphery Dissonance as a Possible Factor of the Revolutionary Wave of 2013-2014
Jack Goldstone proposes three predictors for acute social and political destabilization during the revolutionary wave of 2013-2014: (a) an intermediate level of per capita GDP, (b) a high level of corruption, and (c) a transitional type of political regime. After testing this theory on a broader sample, this study suggests and finds support for another predictor—“center-periphery dissonance” for the destabilization of the 2013-2014 wave. The emer…
Egyptian coup of 2013
The article is devoted to an 'econometric' analysis of the events in Egypt that happened in summer 2013. The analysis of the Egyptian Stock Exchange indices suggests that the 2013 Egyptian coup d'état was prepared to a very considerable extent by the reconciliation between the Egyptian economic and military elites. It also suggests some additional hints regarding the split between the Arabian monarchies (Qatar, on the one hand, and Saudi Arabia, …
From Fitnah to Thaura
Since 2011, the Arab world has entered a period of political turbulence accompanied by widespread growth of protest activity. The events that were metaphorically called the "Arab Spring" referring to the "Spring of Nations" of 1848, affected virtually all countries of the Middle East and North Africa. In Libya, Syria, and Yemen, antigovernment demonstrations led to almost complete destruction of statehood raising the question of the existence of …
Internet Censorship in Arab Countries
Internet censorship remains one of the most common methods of state control over the media. Reasons for filtering cyberspace include ensuring the security of the current regime, attempts to limit all kinds of opposition movements, and the protection of the religious and moral norms of society. In Arab countries, where religion plays a major role in the sociopolitical sphere, the latter is particularly important. Since, in Islamic law, there is no…
Russia’s Policy towards the Middle East
Yemen occupies a peripheral place in Russian foreign policy for three reasons: lack of serious economic interest, the illusory potential of strengthening the military presence there and recognition of Saudi Arabia’s role in the Yemeni conflict. However, a deepening of the split within the Arab coalition in Yemen, primarily between the UAE and Saudi Arabia, has not only forced the Russian authorities to seek a balance between Yemeni actors, but al…
Jihad as a Form of Political Protest
This article presents the evolution of the concepts of jihād from the minimalist and maximalist approaches. In the present article one can find two conceptions: the conception of liminality and the conception of re-Islamisation. Liminality is a form of structural crisis that appears as a result of the split within the Islamic spiritual elite and Muslim community itself. The period of liminality is characterised by political and social instability…
Decentralization in Libya after the Arab Spring
Federalism in the Middle East
Framing the Syrian Conflict in the Russian Federal Media
The article analyzes features of the coverage of the Syrian conflict by the Russian media. Empirically, the study is based on the articles published in 2015—2019 in the most cited federal media resources — the online edition of RIA Novosti, as well as the newspapers Izvestia and Vedomos ti. The authors employ the method of the qualitative content analysis in the MAXQDA program. Given the extremely important role that framing plays in media resour…
Russia and the New Middle East
Russian policy in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) has undergone significant changes since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Moscow’s actions in the region have began to acquire a less ideologically driving and more pragmatic character. However, the Arab Spring and conflict in Ukraine have underscored a more aggressive policy on the part of Russia, the quintessence of which was military intervention in an armed conflict far from its border…
Framing of the Syrian Conflict in the Russian Media
The research studies the features of coverage of the Syrian conflict by Russian media. In scientific discourse, there are a number of works studying the information support for the civil war in Syria, which is explained by its specificity – a multilateral, multi-level protracted conflict creates an opportunity for a varied interpretation of events and causal relationships. The way events in Syria are presented in various regions of Russia is of p…
Diversifying relationships
The interaction between Russia and Gulf countries represents the story of ups and downs, severe conflicts and sharp warmings that can largely be explained by the permanently changing role and place of each of these players at the global and Middle Eastern political arenas. After Russia's "return" to the Middle East in 2012-2015, Moscow's foreign policy towards the Gulf can be explained in terms of a bargaining strategy. On the one hand, Russia is…
New Wave of Revolutions in the Mena Region
The Global Terrorist Threat in the Sahel and the Origins of Terrorism in Burkina Faso
The article examines the reasons for the increasing terrorist activity in Burkina Faso after the revolution in 2014. For decades, the Sahel has been one of the most unstable regions in Africa and the Afrasian zone of instability. However, in the 2010s the Sahel has experienced a dramatic increase in terrorist activity: by 2015, the number of terrorist attacks there increased more than seven times compared to 2010. At the same time, the dynamics o…
Islamic education in Russia
The collapse of the Soviet system in the North Caucasus was accompanied by re-Islamization, which, among other things, was facilitated by growing influence of the religious and governmental actors from the Middle East. The upsurge of Islam manifested the increased demand for religious education. Some Muslims in Russia, mostly middle-age ones, and the elders, stood for restoration of pre-Soviet Islamic traditions. Others, the youth, oriented to th…
Dynastic Sacredness
The ruling dynasty of Morocco is one of very few that tracks its royal bloodline back to the Prophet Muhammad himself. Did this lineage contribute to the fact that the North African monarchy was barely touched by the tumultuous Arab Spring of 2011–12? This article challenges such assertions. Despite its divine inception, Moroccan royal power survived the era of modernity solely thanks to the French, who invested in their colony during the protect…
A Troubled Return to the Homeland
The humanitarian crisis in Syria has fuelled the Circassian issue in Russia. Escaping from the war, hundreds of Syrian Circassians (Adyghe) chose Russia as their destination because their ancestors came to the Middle East from the North Caucasus. Syrian Circassians have faced difficulties in entering Russia and staying there regardless of the state’s ability to accept a large number of immigrants. In the case of receiving Syrian Adyghe, Russian a…
Perceptions of Russia's 'return' to Africa
The article focuses on the perception of Russia’s ‘return’ to Africa through an analysis of field research data from three African states: Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, gathered in late 2021. In this article, the authors argue that the Russian ‘return’ to Africa, which is primarily seen in the provision of security services through the presence of Russian private military companies (PMCs), is perceived positively in West Africa. An important role…
Russian Policy of Securitization in Africa
The study focuses on the perception of the Russian military presence in Africa. The 1990s and early 2000s saw a long break in Russian-African relations, linked to Russia’s priority of establishing a dialogue with Western countries. Largely as a result, Russia managed to avoid getting involved in conflicts and maintain respectful relations with African countries. In recent years, however, Russia’s “return” to Africa has revitalized Moscow’s intere…
“Perestroika” à la Nigérien
The article is devoted to the study of the events that transpired in Niger in July 2023, which led to the overthrow of President Mohamed Bazum by members of his own guard, under the command of Abdrahman Tchiani. The fieldwork and interview materials that the authors gathered in Niger in September 2023 are used in this article. It is demonstrated that an escalated intra-elite conflict that started to fester as soon as Mohamed Bazum was elected pre…
Terrorism and Political Contention
Operation of the Russian Aerospace Forces in Syria in the Official Russian Discourse
In this article, we analyze how the operation of the Russian Aerospace forces is presented in the official Russian discourse. The analysis is based on a collected database of statements made by the Russian authorities. Relying on social identity theory, we argue that the Russian operation in Syria became a key element in changing the Russian strategy in the Middle East. In other words, beginning in the mid-2010s, Russian policy in the Middle East…
August 2024 Events in Nigeria (Failed Coupvolution in the Context of West African Political Processes)
The article examines the possibility of interpreting the August 2024 events in Nigeria as a failed coupvolution i.e., a special type of revolutionary process that involves a combination of revolutionary mobilization of the masses with a military coup. At the same time, the authors demonstrate the feasibility of distinguishing two types of coupvolutions. While within the first type of coupvolutions mass revolutionary mobilization aimed at overthro…
Political science (23 obras) · Law (20 obras) · Politics (20 obras) · Sociology (12 obras) · Economics (10 obras) · Geography (10 obras) · Political economy (10 obras) · Development economics (9 obras) · Law (9 obras) · History (8 obras)