Adrian E Raftery
Datos Biográficos
| ID | 178554 |
|---|---|
| NOMBRE | Adrian E Raftery |
| NOMBRES | Adrian E |
| APELLIDO | Raftery |
| FIRMA | RAFTERY A E |
| AFILIACIONES | University of Washington |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-6589-301X |
| VERIFICADO | Sí |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 46 |
| TOTAL DE CITAS | 1269 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 46 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 0 |
| PRIMER AÑO DE PUBLICACIÓN | 1983 |
| AÑO MÁS RECIENTE DE PUBLICACIÓN | 2026 |
| ÍNDICE H | 12 |
Bringing Age Back In
Existing models of country-level net migration ignore the effect of population age distribution on past and projected migration rates. We propose a method to estimate and forecast international net migration rates for the 200 most populous countries, taking account of changes in population age structure. We use age-standardized estimates of country-level net migration rates and in-migration (i.e., immigration) rates over five-year periods from 19…
Bayesian Projection of Extant Refugee and Asylum Seeker Populations
Estimates of future migration patterns are of broad interest in demography. Forced migration, including refugee and asylum seekers, plays an important role in overall migration patterns but is notoriously difficult to forecast. Focusing on refugees and asylum seekers, we propose a modeling pipeline based on Bayesian hierarchical time-series modeling for projecting refugee population official statistics by country of origin using data from the Uni…
Developing and implementing the UN's probabilistic population projections as a milestone for Bayesian demography
BACKGROUND: Population projections for all countries are published by the United Nations Population Division (UNPD) every two years as part of the World Population Prospects (WPP). Since 2015, probabilistic population projections have been published as part of WPP, produced using Bayesian statistical models. Central to this methodological change was a team of statisticians at the University of Washington, led by Professor Adrian Raftery. OBJECTIV…
Probabilistic County-Level Population Projections
Population projections provide predictions of future population sizes for an area. Historically, most population projections have been produced using deterministic or scenario-based approaches and have not assessed uncertainty about future population change. Starting in 2015, however, the United Nations (UN) has produced probabilistic population projections for all countries using a Bayesian approach. There is also considerable interest in subnat…
Comprehensive evidence implies a higher social cost of CO2
The social cost of carbon dioxide (SC-CO 2 ) measures the monetized value of the damages to society caused by an incremental metric tonne of CO 2 emissions and is a key metric informing climate policy. Used by governments and other decision-makers in benefit–cost analysis for over a decade, SC-CO 2 estimates draw on climate science, economics, demography and other disciplines. However, a 2017 report by the US National Academies of Sciences, Engin…
BIC Extensions for Order-constrained Model Selection
The Schwarz or Bayesian information criterion (BIC) is one of the most widely used tools for model comparison in social science research. The BIC, however, is not suitable for evaluating models with order constraints on the parameters of interest. This article explores two extensions of the BIC for evaluating order-constrained models, one where a truncated unit information prior is used under the order-constrained model and the other where a trun…
Probabilistic forecasting of maximum human lifespan by 2100 using Bayesian population projections
BACKGROUND: We consider the problem of quantifying the human lifespan using a statistical approach that probabilistically forecasts the maximum reported age at death (MRAD) through 2100. OBJECTIVE: We seek to quantify the probability that any person attains various extreme ages, such as those above 120, by the year 2100. METHODS: We use the exponential survival model for supercentenarians (people over age 110) of Rootzén and Zholud (2017) but ext…
How Do Education and Family Planning Accelerate Fertility Decline
Education and family planning can both be influenced by policy and are thought to accelerate fertility decline. However, questions remain about the nature of these effects. Does the effect of education operate through increasing educational attainment of women or educational enrollment of children? At which educational level is the effect strongest? Does the effect of family planning operate through increasing contraceptive prevalence or reducing…
Estimation of emigration, return migration, and transit migration between all pairs of countries
Significance Despite the importance of international migration, estimates of between-country migration flows are still imprecise. Reliable record keeping of migration events is typically available only in the developed world, and the best existing methods to produce global migration flow estimates are burdened by strong assumptions. We produce estimates of migration flows between all pairs of countries at 5-year intervals, revealing patterns obsc…
Probabilistic population projections for countries with generalized HIV/Aids epidemics
In 2015, the United Nations (UN) issued probabilistic population projections for all countries up to 2100, by simulating future levels of total fertility and life expectancy and combining the results using a standard cohort component projection method. For the 40 countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics, the mortality projections used the Spectrum/Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) model, a complex, multistate model designed for short-t…
Probabilistic projection of subnational total fertility rates
BACKGROUND: We consider the problem of probabilistic projection of the total fertility rate (TFR) for subnational regions. OBJECTIVE: We seek a method that is consistent with the UN's recently adopted Bayesian method for probabilistic TFR projections for all countries and works well for all countries. METHODS: We assess various possible methods using subnational TFR data for 47 countries. RESULTS: We find that the method that performs best in ter…
Bayesian projection of life expectancy accounting for the HIV/Aids epidemic
BACKGROUND: While probabilistic projection methods for projecting life expectancy exist, few account for covariates related to life expectancy. Generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics have a large, immediate negative impact on the life expectancy in a country, but this impact can be mitigated by widespread use of antiretroviral therapy (ART). Thus, projection methods for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics could be improved by accounting for HIV…
Properties of latent variable network models
We derive properties of latent variable models for networks, a broad class of models that includes the widely used latent position models. We characterize several features of interest, with particular focus on the degree distribution, clustering coefficient, average path length, and degree correlations. We introduce the Gaussian latent position model, and derive analytic expressions and asymptotic approximations for its network properties. We pay…
Bayesian population reconstruction of female populations for less developed and more developed countries
We show that Bayesian population reconstruction, a recent method for estimating past populations by age, works for data of widely varying quality. Bayesian reconstruction simultaneously estimates age-specific population counts, fertility rates, mortality rates, and net international migration flows from fragmentary data, while formally accounting for measurement error. As inputs, Bayesian reconstruction uses initial bias-reduced estimates of stan…
Bayesian Probabilistic Projection of International Migration
We propose a method for obtaining joint probabilistic projections of migration for all countries, broken down by age and sex. Joint trajectories for all countries are constrained to satisfy the requirement of zero global net migration. We evaluate our model using out-of-sample validation and compare point projections to the projected migration rates from a persistence model similar to the method used in the United Nations’ World Population Prospe…
World population stabilization unlikely this century
The United Nations (UN) recently released population projections based on data until 2012 and a Bayesian probabilistic methodology. Analysis of these data reveals that, contrary to previous literature, the world population is unlikely to stop growing this century. There is an 80% probability that world population, now 7.2 billion people, will increase to between 9.6 billion and 12.3 billion in 2100. This uncertainty is much smaller than the range…
Regional probabilistic fertility forecasting by modeling between-country correlations
BACKGROUND: The United Nations (UN) Population Division produces probabilistic projections for the total fertility rate (TFR) using the Bayesian hierarchical model of Alkema et al. (2011), which produces predictive distributions of the TFR for individual countries. The UN is interested in publishing probabilistic projections for aggregates of countries, such as regions and trading blocs. This requires joint probabilistic projections of future cou…
Joint probabilistic projection of female and male life expectancy
BACKGROUND: The United Nations (UN) produces population projections for all countries every two years. These are used by international organizations, governments, the private sector and researchers for policy planning, for monitoring development goals, as inputs to economic and environmental models, and for social and health research. The UN is considering producing fully probabilistic population projections, for which joint probabilistic project…
Bayesian Probabilistic Projections of Life Expectancy for All Countries
We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model for producing probabilistic forecasts of male period life expectancy at birth for all the countries of the world to 2100. Such forecasts would be an input to the production of probabilistic population projections for all countries, which is currently being considered by the United Nations. To evaluate the method, we conducted an out-of-sample cross-validation experiment, fitting the model to the data from …
Estimating trends in the total fertility rate with uncertainty using imperfect data
BACKGROUND: Estimating the total fertility rate is challenging for many developing countries because of limited data and varying data quality. A standardized, reproducible approach to produce estimates that include an uncertainty assessment is desired. METHODS: We develop a method to estimate and assess uncertainty in the total fertility rate over time, based on multiple imperfect observations from different data sources, including surveys and ce…
Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate for All Countries
We describe a Bayesian projection model to produce country-specific projections of the total fertility rate (TFR) for all countries. The model decomposes the evolution of TFR into three phases: pre-transition high fertility, the fertility transition, and post-transition low fertility. The model for the fertility decline builds on the United Nations Population Division’s current deterministic projection methodology, which assumes that fertility wi…
Representing degree distributions, clustering, and homophily in social networks with latent cluster random effects models
Model-Based Clustering for Social Networks
Network models are widely used to represent relations between interacting units or actors. Network data often exhibit transitivity, meaning that two actors that have ties to a third actor are more likely to be tied than actors that do not, homophily by attributes of the actors or dyads, and clustering. Interest often focuses on finding clusters of actors or ties, and the number of groups in the data is typically unknown. We propose a new model, t…
Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation
Scoring rules assess the quality of probabilistic forecasts, by assigning a numerical score based on the predictive distribution and on the event or value that materializes. A scoring rule is proper if the forecaster maximizes the expected score for an observation drawn from the distributionF if he or she issues the probabilistic forecast F, rather than G ≠ F. It is strictly proper if the maximum is unique. In prediction problems, proper scoring …
Model-Based Clustering, Discriminant Analysis, and Density Estimation
Cluster analysis is the automated search for groups of related observations in a dataset. Most clustering done in practice is based largely on heuristic but intuitively reasonable procedures, and most clustering methods available in commercial software are also of this type. However, there is little systematic guidance associated with these methods for solving important practical questions that arise in cluster analysis, such as how many clusters…
Bayesian Model Selection in Social Research
It is argued that P-values and the tests based upon them give unsatisfactory results, especially in large samples. It is shown that, in regression, when there are many candidate independent variables, standard variable selection procedures can give very misleading results. Also, by selecting a single model, they ignore model uncertainty and so underestimate the uncertainty about quantities of interest. The Bayesian approach to hypothesis testing,…
Maximally Maintained Inequality
Secondary education in Ireland has expanded steadily in the 20th century, with a big surge in the late 1960s. The AA. analyze the changes in the effect of social origin on educational transitions for the 1908-56 birth cohorts. Results show that overall class differences in educational attainment declined, but class barriers were not removed ; they simply became less consequential because the educational system expanded to the point where it could…
Choosing Models for Cross-Classifications
Family Structure, Educational Attainment, and Socioeconomic Success
The effect of alternative family structures on children's educational and occupational success has been constant over the past 30 years. Higher rates of unemployment and lower‐status occupational positions could account for the negative effect of single‐mother families on children's attainment throughout the period. Children from single‐father families and stepfamilies have consistently had lower attainments than children from both two‐biological…
The Effects of Family Disruption on Social Mobility
L'experience d'une separation familiale durant l'enfance augmente substantiellement la tendance des hommes a se retrouver dans la strate occupationnelle la plus basse. La separation familiale affaiblit la relation d'association entre les dimensions de la strate professionnelle d'origine et de la strate de destination pour les hommes. Le statut socio-economique atteint par les hommes issus de familles eclatees est moins similaire au statut socio-e…
Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate for All Countries
We describe a Bayesian projection model to produce country-specific projections of the total fertility rate (TFR) for all countries. The model decomposes the evolution of TFR into three phases: pre-transition high fertility, the fertility transition, and post-transition low fertility. The model for the fertility decline builds on the United Nations Population Division’s current deterministic projection methodology, which assumes that fertility wi…
Are births underreported in rural China? Manipulation of statistical records in response to China’s population policies
Under the current family planning policy in China, the criterion for evaluating all parties involved in the birth planning system provides an incentive for everyone to see that the policy is met, either in reality through strict enforcement of family planning regulations, or statistically through manipulation of statistical records. We investigate underreporting of births in four rural counties of northern China, using data from a 1992 sample sur…
Bayesian Probabilistic Projections of Life Expectancy for All Countries
We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model for producing probabilistic forecasts of male period life expectancy at birth for all the countries of the world to 2100. Such forecasts would be an input to the production of probabilistic population projections for all countries, which is currently being considered by the United Nations. To evaluate the method, we conducted an out-of-sample cross-validation experiment, fitting the model to the data from …
Demand or Ideation? Evidence from the Iranian Marital Fertility Decline
Is the onset of fertility decline caused by structural socioeconomic changes or by the transmission of new ideas? The decline of marital fertility in Iran provides a quasi-experimental setting for addressing this question. Massive economic growth started in 1955; measurable ideational changes took place in 1967. We argue that the decline is described more precisely by demand theory than by ideation theory. It began around 1959, just after the ons…
How Do Education and Family Planning Accelerate Fertility Decline
Education and family planning can both be influenced by policy and are thought to accelerate fertility decline. However, questions remain about the nature of these effects. Does the effect of education operate through increasing educational attainment of women or educational enrollment of children? At which educational level is the effect strongest? Does the effect of family planning operate through increasing contraceptive prevalence or reducing…
Bayesian Probabilistic Projection of International Migration
We propose a method for obtaining joint probabilistic projections of migration for all countries, broken down by age and sex. Joint trajectories for all countries are constrained to satisfy the requirement of zero global net migration. We evaluate our model using out-of-sample validation and compare point projections to the projected migration rates from a persistence model similar to the method used in the United Nations’ World Population Prospe…
Family Structure and Social Mobility
Journal Article Family Structure and Social Mobility Get access Timothy J. Biblarz, Timothy J. Biblarz University of Southern California Direct correspondence to Timothy Biblarz, Department of Sociology, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, 90089-2539. E-mail: [email protected]. Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Adrian E. Raftery, Adrian E. Raftery University of Washington Search for other w…
Joint probabilistic projection of female and male life expectancy
BACKGROUND: The United Nations (UN) produces population projections for all countries every two years. These are used by international organizations, governments, the private sector and researchers for policy planning, for monitoring development goals, as inputs to economic and environmental models, and for social and health research. The UN is considering producing fully probabilistic population projections, for which joint probabilistic project…
Estimating trends in the total fertility rate with uncertainty using imperfect data
BACKGROUND: Estimating the total fertility rate is challenging for many developing countries because of limited data and varying data quality. A standardized, reproducible approach to produce estimates that include an uncertainty assessment is desired. METHODS: We develop a method to estimate and assess uncertainty in the total fertility rate over time, based on multiple imperfect observations from different data sources, including surveys and ce…
Properties of latent variable network models
We derive properties of latent variable models for networks, a broad class of models that includes the widely used latent position models. We characterize several features of interest, with particular focus on the degree distribution, clustering coefficient, average path length, and degree correlations. We introduce the Gaussian latent position model, and derive analytic expressions and asymptotic approximations for its network properties. We pay…
Probabilistic County-Level Population Projections
Population projections provide predictions of future population sizes for an area. Historically, most population projections have been produced using deterministic or scenario-based approaches and have not assessed uncertainty about future population change. Starting in 2015, however, the United Nations (UN) has produced probabilistic population projections for all countries using a Bayesian approach. There is also considerable interest in subnat…
Bayes Factors and BIC
Bayesian Analysis of Event History Models with Unobserved Heterogeneity via Markov Chain Monte Carlo
This article describes an interesting application of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). MCMC is used to assess competing explanations of marital fertility decline. Data collected during the World Fertility Study in Iran are analyzed using methods developed to perform discrete time event history analyses in which unobserved heterogeneity is explicitly accounted for. The usual age-period-cohort identifiability problem is compounded by the presence of…
Probabilistic projection of subnational total fertility rates
BACKGROUND: We consider the problem of probabilistic projection of the total fertility rate (TFR) for subnational regions. OBJECTIVE: We seek a method that is consistent with the UN's recently adopted Bayesian method for probabilistic TFR projections for all countries and works well for all countries. METHODS: We assess various possible methods using subnational TFR data for 47 countries. RESULTS: We find that the method that performs best in ter…
Regional probabilistic fertility forecasting by modeling between-country correlations
BACKGROUND: The United Nations (UN) Population Division produces probabilistic projections for the total fertility rate (TFR) using the Bayesian hierarchical model of Alkema et al. (2011), which produces predictive distributions of the TFR for individual countries. The UN is interested in publishing probabilistic projections for aggregates of countries, such as regions and trading blocs. This requires joint probabilistic projections of future cou…
Probabilistic population projections for countries with generalized HIV/Aids epidemics
In 2015, the United Nations (UN) issued probabilistic population projections for all countries up to 2100, by simulating future levels of total fertility and life expectancy and combining the results using a standard cohort component projection method. For the 40 countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics, the mortality projections used the Spectrum/Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) model, a complex, multistate model designed for short-t…
Bayesian population reconstruction of female populations for less developed and more developed countries
We show that Bayesian population reconstruction, a recent method for estimating past populations by age, works for data of widely varying quality. Bayesian reconstruction simultaneously estimates age-specific population counts, fertility rates, mortality rates, and net international migration flows from fragmentary data, while formally accounting for measurement error. As inputs, Bayesian reconstruction uses initial bias-reduced estimates of stan…
Developing and implementing the UN's probabilistic population projections as a milestone for Bayesian demography
BACKGROUND: Population projections for all countries are published by the United Nations Population Division (UNPD) every two years as part of the World Population Prospects (WPP). Since 2015, probabilistic population projections have been published as part of WPP, produced using Bayesian statistical models. Central to this methodological change was a team of statisticians at the University of Washington, led by Professor Adrian Raftery. OBJECTIV…
Bayesian projection of life expectancy accounting for the HIV/Aids epidemic
BACKGROUND: While probabilistic projection methods for projecting life expectancy exist, few account for covariates related to life expectancy. Generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics have a large, immediate negative impact on the life expectancy in a country, but this impact can be mitigated by widespread use of antiretroviral therapy (ART). Thus, projection methods for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics could be improved by accounting for HIV…
Guest Editor's Introduction to the Special Issue on Causality in the Social Sciences, in Honor of Herbert L. Costner
"Comment on "Gaps and Glissandos
Choosing Models for Cross-Classifications
Model-Based Gaussian and Non-Gaussian Clustering
The classification maximum likelihood approach is sufficiently general to encompass many current clustering algorithms, including those based on the sum of squares criterion and on the criterion of Friedman and Rubin (1967). However, as currently implemented, it does not allow the specification of which features (orientation, size and shape) are to be common to all clusters and which may differ between clusters. Also, it is restricted to Gaussian…
The Effects of Family Disruption on Social Mobility
L'experience d'une separation familiale durant l'enfance augmente substantiellement la tendance des hommes a se retrouver dans la strate occupationnelle la plus basse. La separation familiale affaiblit la relation d'association entre les dimensions de la strate professionnelle d'origine et de la strate de destination pour les hommes. Le statut socio-economique atteint par les hommes issus de familles eclatees est moins similaire au statut socio-e…
Maximally Maintained Inequality
Secondary education in Ireland has expanded steadily in the 20th century, with a big surge in the late 1960s. The AA. analyze the changes in the effect of social origin on educational transitions for the 1908-56 birth cohorts. Results show that overall class differences in educational attainment declined, but class barriers were not removed ; they simply became less consequential because the educational system expanded to the point where it could…
Bayes Factors
In a 1935 paper and in his book Theory of Probability, Jeffreys developed a methodology for quantifying the evidence in favor of a scientific theory. The centerpiece was a number, now called the Bayes factor, which is the posterior odds of the null hypothesis when the prior probability on the null is one-half. Although there has been much discussion of Bayesian hypothesis testing in the context of criticism of P-values, less attention has been gi…
Bayesian Model Selection in Social Research
It is argued that P-values and the tests based upon them give unsatisfactory results, especially in large samples. It is shown that, in regression, when there are many candidate independent variables, standard variable selection procedures can give very misleading results. Also, by selecting a single model, they ignore model uncertainty and so underestimate the uncertainty about quantities of interest. The Bayesian approach to hypothesis testing,…
Demand or Ideation? Evidence from the Iranian Marital Fertility Decline
Is the onset of fertility decline caused by structural socioeconomic changes or by the transmission of new ideas? The decline of marital fertility in Iran provides a quasi-experimental setting for addressing this question. Massive economic growth started in 1955; measurable ideational changes took place in 1967. We argue that the decline is described more precisely by demand theory than by ideation theory. It began around 1959, just after the ons…
Bayesian Model Averaging for Linear Regression Models
We consider the problem of accounting for model uncertainty in linear regression models. Conditioning on a single selected model ignores model uncertainty, and thus leads to the underestimation of uncertainty when making inferences about quantities of interest. A Bayesian solution to this problem involves averaging over all possible models (i.e., combinations of predictors) when making inferences about quantities of interest. This approach is oft…
In This Volume
Family Structure and Social Mobility
Journal Article Family Structure and Social Mobility Get access Timothy J. Biblarz, Timothy J. Biblarz University of Southern California Direct correspondence to Timothy Biblarz, Department of Sociology, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, 90089-2539. E-mail: [email protected]. Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Adrian E. Raftery, Adrian E. Raftery University of Washington Search for other w…
Sociological Methodology 1997
In This Volume
Guest Editor's Introduction to the Special Issue on Causality in the Social Sciences, in Honor of Herbert L. Costner
Bayesian model averaging
Standard statistical practice ignores model uncertainty. Data analysts typically select a model from some class of models and then proceed as if the selected model had generated the data. This approach ignores the uncertainty in model selection, leading to over-confident inferences and decisions that are more risky than one thinks they are. Bayesian model averaging (BMA)provides a coherent mechanism for accounting for this model uncertainty. Seve…
Family Structure, Educational Attainment, and Socioeconomic Success
The effect of alternative family structures on children's educational and occupational success has been constant over the past 30 years. Higher rates of unemployment and lower‐status occupational positions could account for the negative effect of single‐mother families on children's attainment throughout the period. Children from single‐father families and stepfamilies have consistently had lower attainments than children from both two‐biological…
Bayesian Analysis of Event History Models with Unobserved Heterogeneity via Markov Chain Monte Carlo
This article describes an interesting application of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). MCMC is used to assess competing explanations of marital fertility decline. Data collected during the World Fertility Study in Iran are analyzed using methods developed to perform discrete time event history analyses in which unobserved heterogeneity is explicitly accounted for. The usual age-period-cohort identifiability problem is compounded by the presence of…
Bayes Factors and BIC
Are births underreported in rural China? Manipulation of statistical records in response to China’s population policies
Under the current family planning policy in China, the criterion for evaluating all parties involved in the birth planning system provides an incentive for everyone to see that the policy is met, either in reality through strict enforcement of family planning regulations, or statistically through manipulation of statistical records. We investigate underreporting of births in four rural counties of northern China, using data from a 1992 sample sur…
Statistics In Sociology, 1950-2000
Statistical methods have had a successful half-century in sociology, contributing to a greatly improved standard of scientific rigor in the discipline. I identify three overlapping postwar generations of statistical methods in sociology, based on the kinds of data they address. The first generation, which started in the late 1940s, deals with cross-tabulations and focuses on measures of association and log-linear models, perhaps the area of stati…
Model-Based Clustering, Discriminant Analysis, and Density Estimation
Cluster analysis is the automated search for groups of related observations in a dataset. Most clustering done in practice is based largely on heuristic but intuitively reasonable procedures, and most clustering methods available in commercial software are also of this type. However, there is little systematic guidance associated with these methods for solving important practical questions that arise in cluster analysis, such as how many clusters…
Latent Space Approaches to Social Network Analysis
Network models are widely used to represent relational information among interacting units. In studies of social networks, recent emphasis has been placed on random graph models where the nodes usually represent individual social actors and the edges represent the presence of a specified relation between actors. We develop a class of models where the probability of a relation between actors depends on the positions of individuals in an unobserved…
Model-Based Clustering for Social Networks
Network models are widely used to represent relations between interacting units or actors. Network data often exhibit transitivity, meaning that two actors that have ties to a third actor are more likely to be tied than actors that do not, homophily by attributes of the actors or dyads, and clustering. Interest often focuses on finding clusters of actors or ties, and the number of groups in the data is typically unknown. We propose a new model, t…
Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation
Scoring rules assess the quality of probabilistic forecasts, by assigning a numerical score based on the predictive distribution and on the event or value that materializes. A scoring rule is proper if the forecaster maximizes the expected score for an observation drawn from the distributionF if he or she issues the probabilistic forecast F, rather than G ≠ F. It is strictly proper if the maximum is unique. In prediction problems, proper scoring …
Representing degree distributions, clustering, and homophily in social networks with latent cluster random effects models
Mathematics (27 obras) · Sociology (24 obras) · Statistics (23 obras) · Demography (22 obras) · Econometrics (22 obras) · Population (22 obras) · Bayesian probability (21 obras) · Economics (20 obras) · Computer Science (19 obras) · Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management (16 obras)