J R Goldstein
Datos Biográficos
| ID | 219802 |
|---|---|
| NOMBRE | J R Goldstein |
| NOMBRES | J R |
| APELLIDO | Goldstein |
| FIRMA | GOLDSTEIN J R |
| AFILIACIONES | Princeton University |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-5936-5464 |
| VERIFICADO | Sí |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 37 |
| TOTAL DE CITAS | 1004 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 37 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 0 |
| PRIMER AÑO DE PUBLICACIÓN | 1994 |
| AÑO MÁS RECIENTE DE PUBLICACIÓN | 2024 |
| ÍNDICE H | 13 |
The Formal Demography of Peak Population
When will the human population peak? In this article, we build on classical results by Ansley Coale, who showed that when fertility declines steadily, births reach their maximum before fertility reaches replacement level, and the decline in total population size does not occur until several decades after fertility has reached that level. We extend Coale's results by modeling longevity increases, net immigration, and a slowdown in fertility declin…
Life Expectancy Reversals in Low-Mortality Populations
Behind the steady march of progress toward longer life expectancy in many low-mortality countries, there have been setbacks even before the Covid-19 pandemic. In this paper, we use an exploratory approach to describe the temporal structure, age patterns, and geographic aspects of life expectancy reversals. We find that drops in life expectancy are often followed by larger than average improvements, which tells us that most reversals are transitor…
Mortality Modeling of Partially Observed Cohorts Using Administrative Death Records
New advances in data linkage provide mortality researchers with access to administrative datasets with millions of mortality records and rich demographic covariates. Although these new datasets allow for high-resolution mortality research, administrative mortality records often have technical limitations, such as limited mortality coverage windows and incomplete observation of survivors. We describe a method for fitting truncated distributions th…
Naming the Precious Child
Can the names parents gave their children give us insights into how parents in historical times planned their families? In this study, we explore whether the names given to the firstborn child can be used as indicators of family-size preferences and, if so, what this reveals about the emergence of intentional family planning over the course of the demographic transition. We analyze historical populations from 1850 to 1940 in the United States, wh…
Berkeley Unified Numident Mortality Database
While much progress has been made in understanding the demographic determinants of mortality in the United States using individual survey data and aggregate tabulations, the lack of population-level register data is a barrier to further advances in mortali
The changing relationship between unemployment and total fertility
The aim of this paper is to investigate whether there has been a fundamental change in the relationship between economic conditions and fertility. We use panel data methods to study the short-term changes in total fertility and the unemployment rate in a range of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries from 1957 to 2014. We find that although fertility was counter-cyclical before 1970, with good economic times bein…
Demographic Pressures on European Unity
From Patrick to John F
Taking advantage of historical census records that include full first and last names, we apply a new approach to measuring the effect of cultural assimilation on economic success for the children of the last great wave of immigrants to the United States. We created a quantitative index of ethnic distinctiveness of first names and show the consequences of ethnic-sounding names for the occupational achievement of the adult children of European immi…
A Long‐Standing Demographic East–West Divide in Germany
Over the last 25 years, a large number of studies have looked at the demographic differences between the previously divided eastern and western parts of Germany. The two regions have converged with respect to mortality and overall fertility levels. But in terms of family formation behaviour, differences remain. Non‐marital births are the norm in eastern Germany, whereas they are still the exception in western Germany. Various explanations for the…
A Cohort Model of Fertility Postponement
We introduce a new formal model in which demographic behavior such as fertility is postponed by differing amounts depending only on cohort membership. The cohort-based model shows the effects of cohort shifts on period fertility measures and provides an accompanying tempo adjustment to determine the period fertility that would have occurred without postponement. Cohort-based postponement spans multiple periods and produces “fertility momentum,” w…
Variations spatiales des structures de ménage en Allemagne au xix e siècle
L’Allemagne du xix e siècle est un laboratoire particulièrement intéressant pour l’étude des différences démographiques entre régions, et pourtant les structures de la famille à cette époque dans cette partie de l’Europe restent peu explorées. Cet article analyse la variabilité des situations domestiques avec une mesure agrégée de la complexité des ménages fondée sur les statistiques publiées du recensement allemand de 1885. Des méthodes descript…
Spatial Analysis of the Causes of Fertility Decline in Prussia
This article contributes to the geographic analysis of fertility decline in the demographic transition in Europe. We reanalyze Galloway, Hammel, and Lee's (1994) Prussian data with spatial analysis methods. Our multivariate analysis provides evidence of the predictive effect of both economic and cultural variables. Furthermore, even after all of the observable economic, social, and cultural variables have been controlled for, our findings show th…
Probabilistic Forecasting Using Stochastic Diffusion Models, With Applications to Cohort Processes of Marriage and Fertility
In this article, we show how stochastic diffusion models can be used to forecast demographic cohort processes using the Hernes, Gompertz, and logistic models. Such models have been used deterministically in the past, but both behavioral theory and forecast utility are improved by introducing randomness and uncertainty into the standard differential equations governing population processes. Our approach is to add time-series stochasticity to linea…
Fertility Reactions to the "Great Recession" in Europe
This paper provides recent cross-national evidence of the impact of the great recession on fertility in Europe in the context of the recent decade
New Cohort Fertility Forecasts for the Developed World
With period fertility having risen in many low-fertility countries, an important emerging question is whether cohort fertility trends are also reversing. We produce new estimates of cohort fertility for 37 developed countries using a new, simple method that avoids the underestimation typical of previous approaches. Consistent with the idea that timing changes were largely responsible for the last decades' low period fertility, we find that family…
How slowing senescence translates into longer life expectancy
Mortality decline has historically been largely a result of reductions in the level of mortality at all ages. A number of leading researchers on ageing, however, suggest that the next revolution of longevity increase will be the result of slowing down the rate of ageing. In this paper, we show mathematically how varying the pace of senescence influences life expectancy. We provide a formula that holds for any baseline hazard function. Our result …
Historical Addendum to 'Life lived equals life left in stationary populations
This note provides some earlier history of the relationship given in FormalRelationships1, "Life left equals life lived in stationary populations," (Goldstein2009) and shows that while the expectation of life at the mean age of the population is close
Fertility Forecasting in the German-speaking World
In this article, the official fertility projections of the statistical agencies in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland are examined. We refer to the literature on this topic and the history of fertility projections in all three countries. We conclude that the basis of fertility projections is the persistence of the present. We then investigate the most recent projections in more detail - with special regard for their consistency of timing and level…
Has East Germany Overtaken West Germany? Recent Trends in Order-Specific Fertility
Some 20 years after reunification, the contrast between East and West Germany offers a natural experiment for studying the degree of persistence of Communist-era family patterns, the effects of economic change, and fertility postponement. After reunification, period fertility rates plummeted in the former East Germany to record low levels. Since the mid-1990s, however, period fertility rates have been rising in East Germany, in contrast to the ne…
Societal Responses to Endemic Terror
In this article, using data on traffic volume and fatal accident rates in Israel from 2001 to 2004 — a period spanning much of the Second Intifada — we examine the population-level responses to endemic terror to uncover whether societies become habituated so that the response weakens following repeated attacks or whether they become increasingly sensitized so subsequent attacks have a greater impact. Our analysis, using distributed-lag time serie…
The End of "Lowest-Low" Fertility
Total fertility rates fell to previously unseen levels in a large number of countries beginning in the early 1990s. The persistence of TFRs below 1.3 raised the possibility of rapid population aging and decline. We discuss the recent widespread turnaround in so-called lowest-low-fertility countries in Europe and East Asia. The number of countries with TFRs below 1.3 fell from 21 in 2003 to five in 2008. Moreover, the upturn in the TFR was not con…
Keeping a learned society young
Aging organizations - regardless of whether they are firms, faculties, societies, political bodies, teams, or national academies - seek ways to rejuvenate. This paper demonstrates that the best way to keep an organization young is through a mixed strat
Life lived equals life left in stationary populations
The average age of the individuals in a population is equal to the average remaining life expectancy when the population is stationary
Formal Relationships
In 2009, Demographic Research will be publishing short reports on mathematical relationships in formal demography in a new Special Collection called "Formal Relationships". This first publication outlines the goals and procedures for publications in th
Relationships between period and cohort life expectancy
This paper offers an empirical and analytic foundation for regarding period life expectancy as a lagged indicator of the experience of real cohorts in populations experiencing steady improvement in mortality. We find that current period life expectancy in the industrialized world applies to cohorts born some 40-50 years ago. Lags track an average age at which future years of life are being gained, in a sense that we make precise. Our findings aug…
Marriage Delayed or Marriage Forgone? New Cohort Forecasts of First Marriage for U.S. Women
Do recent declines in first marriage rates signal that an increasing proportion of women will remain single their entire lives, or merely that they are postponing marriage to older ages? Our forecasts for cohorts born in the 1950s and 1960s suggest that marriage will remain nearly universal for American women-close to 90 percent of women are predicted to marry. However, separate forecasts by educational attainment reveal a new socioeconomic patte…
The End of "Lowest-Low" Fertility
Total fertility rates fell to previously unseen levels in a large number of countries beginning in the early 1990s. The persistence of TFRs below 1.3 raised the possibility of rapid population aging and decline. We discuss the recent widespread turnaround in so-called lowest-low-fertility countries in Europe and East Asia. The number of countries with TFRs below 1.3 fell from 21 in 2003 to five in 2008. Moreover, the upturn in the TFR was not con…
The emergence of Sub-Replacement Family Size Ideals in Europe
Fertility Reactions to the "Great Recession" in Europe
This paper provides recent cross-national evidence of the impact of the great recession on fertility in Europe in the context of the recent decade
How 4.5 Million Irish Immigrants Became 40 Million Irish Americans
In 1980 for the first time the U.S. Census contained a subjective question about ethnic identity. Natural increase intermarriage and subjective identification contribute to the current size of each ethnic group. Simulations for the British- Irish- German- and Italian-origin populations show the interaction among time of arrival overall fertility and mortality trends and differential fertility in determining natural increase. The subjective identi…
New Cohort Fertility Forecasts for the Developed World
With period fertility having risen in many low-fertility countries, an important emerging question is whether cohort fertility trends are also reversing. We produce new estimates of cohort fertility for 37 developed countries using a new, simple method that avoids the underestimation typical of previous approaches. Consistent with the idea that timing changes were largely responsible for the last decades' low period fertility, we find that family…
The leveling of divorce in the united states
Is the recent plateau in crude divorce rates due to compositional changes in the married population or to a fundamental change in the long-term trend of rising marital instability? I use refined measures of period divorce rates to show that the leveling of divorce rates appears to be real. Compositional factors do little to explain the end to the more than century-long pattern of rising divorce. Increases in cohabitation also fail to explain the …
From Patrick to John F
Taking advantage of historical census records that include full first and last names, we apply a new approach to measuring the effect of cultural assimilation on economic success for the children of the last great wave of immigrants to the United States. We created a quantitative index of ethnic distinctiveness of first names and show the consequences of ethnic-sounding names for the occupational achievement of the adult children of European immi…
Has East Germany Overtaken West Germany? Recent Trends in Order-Specific Fertility
Some 20 years after reunification, the contrast between East and West Germany offers a natural experiment for studying the degree of persistence of Communist-era family patterns, the effects of economic change, and fertility postponement. After reunification, period fertility rates plummeted in the former East Germany to record low levels. Since the mid-1990s, however, period fertility rates have been rising in East Germany, in contrast to the ne…
Parenting Across Racial and Class Lines
We examine the assortative mating patterns of new parents who are married, cohabiting, romantically involved and no longer romantically involved. Using data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing study, we find that relationship status at the time of a birth depends mainly on father's race rather than on whether mother and father's race/ethnicity differ. Crossing race/ethnic lines does not appear to have much effect on relationship transit…
Relationships between period and cohort life expectancy
This paper offers an empirical and analytic foundation for regarding period life expectancy as a lagged indicator of the experience of real cohorts in populations experiencing steady improvement in mortality. We find that current period life expectancy in the industrialized world applies to cohorts born some 40-50 years ago. Lags track an average age at which future years of life are being gained, in a sense that we make precise. Our findings aug…
Spatial Analysis of the Causes of Fertility Decline in Prussia
This article contributes to the geographic analysis of fertility decline in the demographic transition in Europe. We reanalyze Galloway, Hammel, and Lee's (1994) Prussian data with spatial analysis methods. Our multivariate analysis provides evidence of the predictive effect of both economic and cultural variables. Furthermore, even after all of the observable economic, social, and cultural variables have been controlled for, our findings show th…
Socioeconomic Reach and Heterogeneity in the Extended Family
Kinship networks that cross racial lines
I estimate the frequencies of interracial kin relations, an important indicator of the isolation of racial groups in the United States. I use two techniques to estimate the size and heterogeneity of extended families. First, I develop a simple model that takes account only of kinship network sizes and intermarriage levels by race. This model allows a crude estimation of the frequency of multiracial kinship networks. Second, I produce more precise…
A Long‐Standing Demographic East–West Divide in Germany
Over the last 25 years, a large number of studies have looked at the demographic differences between the previously divided eastern and western parts of Germany. The two regions have converged with respect to mortality and overall fertility levels. But in terms of family formation behaviour, differences remain. Non‐marital births are the norm in eastern Germany, whereas they are still the exception in western Germany. Various explanations for the…
Life lived equals life left in stationary populations
The average age of the individuals in a population is equal to the average remaining life expectancy when the population is stationary
Long‐Term Population Decline in Europe
It has recently been suggested that an end to further increases in the mean age of child‐bearing in Europe (ending the negative tempo effect on fertility) would have a substantial effect on population dynamics in terms of slowing population aging and decline and weakening the negative momentum affecting population size over the coming decades. On the other hand, stable population theory suggests that under sub‐replacement fertility conditions, a …
Found in translation
What does tempo-adjusted period life expectancy measure? Taking a cohort perspective, I show that under conditions of constant linear mortality shifts the tempo-adjusted period indicator translates exactly to the cohort born e¤0 (t) years earlier. I di
The changing relationship between unemployment and total fertility
The aim of this paper is to investigate whether there has been a fundamental change in the relationship between economic conditions and fertility. We use panel data methods to study the short-term changes in total fertility and the unemployment rate in a range of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries from 1957 to 2014. We find that although fertility was counter-cyclical before 1970, with good economic times bein…
Long-Range Population Projections Made Simple
Recent developments in mathematical demography offer a new, simple means of producing long-range population projections. The well-known extant such projections, produced by the United Nations, the World Bank, and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, rely on elaborate cohort-component projection methods that require a large number of detailed assumptions and are difficult to replicate. Building upon recent results in the forma…
Probabilistic Forecasting Using Stochastic Diffusion Models, With Applications to Cohort Processes of Marriage and Fertility
In this article, we show how stochastic diffusion models can be used to forecast demographic cohort processes using the Hernes, Gompertz, and logistic models. Such models have been used deterministically in the past, but both behavioral theory and forecast utility are improved by introducing randomness and uncertainty into the standard differential equations governing population processes. Our approach is to add time-series stochasticity to linea…
Life Expectancy Reversals in Low-Mortality Populations
Behind the steady march of progress toward longer life expectancy in many low-mortality countries, there have been setbacks even before the Covid-19 pandemic. In this paper, we use an exploratory approach to describe the temporal structure, age patterns, and geographic aspects of life expectancy reversals. We find that drops in life expectancy are often followed by larger than average improvements, which tells us that most reversals are transitor…
Berkeley Unified Numident Mortality Database
While much progress has been made in understanding the demographic determinants of mortality in the United States using individual survey data and aggregate tabulations, the lack of population-level register data is a barrier to further advances in mortali
Mortality Modeling of Partially Observed Cohorts Using Administrative Death Records
New advances in data linkage provide mortality researchers with access to administrative datasets with millions of mortality records and rich demographic covariates. Although these new datasets allow for high-resolution mortality research, administrative mortality records often have technical limitations, such as limited mortality coverage windows and incomplete observation of survivors. We describe a method for fitting truncated distributions th…
Naming the Precious Child
Can the names parents gave their children give us insights into how parents in historical times planned their families? In this study, we explore whether the names given to the firstborn child can be used as indicators of family-size preferences and, if so, what this reveals about the emergence of intentional family planning over the course of the demographic transition. We analyze historical populations from 1850 to 1940 in the United States, wh…
How 4.5 Million Irish Immigrants Became 40 Million Irish Americans
In 1980 for the first time the U.S. Census contained a subjective question about ethnic identity. Natural increase intermarriage and subjective identification contribute to the current size of each ethnic group. Simulations for the British- Irish- German- and Italian-origin populations show the interaction among time of arrival overall fertility and mortality trends and differential fertility in determining natural increase. The subjective identi…
The leveling of divorce in the united states
Is the recent plateau in crude divorce rates due to compositional changes in the married population or to a fundamental change in the long-term trend of rising marital instability? I use refined measures of period divorce rates to show that the leveling of divorce rates appears to be real. Compositional factors do little to explain the end to the more than century-long pattern of rising divorce. Increases in cohabitation also fail to explain the …
Kinship networks that cross racial lines
I estimate the frequencies of interracial kin relations, an important indicator of the isolation of racial groups in the United States. I use two techniques to estimate the size and heterogeneity of extended families. First, I develop a simple model that takes account only of kinship network sizes and intermarriage levels by race. This model allows a crude estimation of the frequency of multiracial kinship networks. Second, I produce more precise…
Longer Life and Population Growth
Enthusiasm about the prospect of large increases in human life expectancy is often dampened by fears that lower mortality will increase population size, hence population pressure. A simple mathematical model of life-cycle stretching demonstrates that if increased longevity is accompanied by later childbearing, a trend that is already underway, future declines in mortality will not increase population size
Socioeconomic Reach and Heterogeneity in the Extended Family
Marriage Delayed or Marriage Forgone? New Cohort Forecasts of First Marriage for U.S. Women
Do recent declines in first marriage rates signal that an increasing proportion of women will remain single their entire lives, or merely that they are postponing marriage to older ages? Our forecasts for cohorts born in the 1950s and 1960s suggest that marriage will remain nearly universal for American women-close to 90 percent of women are predicted to marry. However, separate forecasts by educational attainment reveal a new socioeconomic patte…
Population Momentum for Gradual Demographic Transitions
In this article, I derive a simple formula for approximating the ultimate size of a population that undergoes a gradual transition to replacement fertility. I model the fertility transition by specifying a linear frontier on the Lexis surface across which a change in fertility is instantaneous. Gradual transitions result from variations in the slope of this frontier. This framework can be used to reproduce and understand previous studies of popul…
Long-Range Population Projections Made Simple
Recent developments in mathematical demography offer a new, simple means of producing long-range population projections. The well-known extant such projections, produced by the United Nations, the World Bank, and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, rely on elaborate cohort-component projection methods that require a large number of detailed assumptions and are difficult to replicate. Building upon recent results in the forma…
The emergence of Sub-Replacement Family Size Ideals in Europe
Long‐Term Population Decline in Europe
It has recently been suggested that an end to further increases in the mean age of child‐bearing in Europe (ending the negative tempo effect on fertility) would have a substantial effect on population dynamics in terms of slowing population aging and decline and weakening the negative momentum affecting population size over the coming decades. On the other hand, stable population theory suggests that under sub‐replacement fertility conditions, a …
Relationships between period and cohort life expectancy
This paper offers an empirical and analytic foundation for regarding period life expectancy as a lagged indicator of the experience of real cohorts in populations experiencing steady improvement in mortality. We find that current period life expectancy in the industrialized world applies to cohorts born some 40-50 years ago. Lags track an average age at which future years of life are being gained, in a sense that we make precise. Our findings aug…
Parenting Across Racial and Class Lines
We examine the assortative mating patterns of new parents who are married, cohabiting, romantically involved and no longer romantically involved. Using data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing study, we find that relationship status at the time of a birth depends mainly on father's race rather than on whether mother and father's race/ethnicity differ. Crossing race/ethnic lines does not appear to have much effect on relationship transit…
Found in translation
What does tempo-adjusted period life expectancy measure? Taking a cohort perspective, I show that under conditions of constant linear mortality shifts the tempo-adjusted period indicator translates exactly to the cohort born e¤0 (t) years earlier. I di
The End of "Lowest-Low" Fertility
Total fertility rates fell to previously unseen levels in a large number of countries beginning in the early 1990s. The persistence of TFRs below 1.3 raised the possibility of rapid population aging and decline. We discuss the recent widespread turnaround in so-called lowest-low-fertility countries in Europe and East Asia. The number of countries with TFRs below 1.3 fell from 21 in 2003 to five in 2008. Moreover, the upturn in the TFR was not con…
Keeping a learned society young
Aging organizations - regardless of whether they are firms, faculties, societies, political bodies, teams, or national academies - seek ways to rejuvenate. This paper demonstrates that the best way to keep an organization young is through a mixed strat
Life lived equals life left in stationary populations
The average age of the individuals in a population is equal to the average remaining life expectancy when the population is stationary
Formal Relationships
In 2009, Demographic Research will be publishing short reports on mathematical relationships in formal demography in a new Special Collection called "Formal Relationships". This first publication outlines the goals and procedures for publications in th
Societal Responses to Endemic Terror
In this article, using data on traffic volume and fatal accident rates in Israel from 2001 to 2004 — a period spanning much of the Second Intifada — we examine the population-level responses to endemic terror to uncover whether societies become habituated so that the response weakens following repeated attacks or whether they become increasingly sensitized so subsequent attacks have a greater impact. Our analysis, using distributed-lag time serie…
Has East Germany Overtaken West Germany? Recent Trends in Order-Specific Fertility
Some 20 years after reunification, the contrast between East and West Germany offers a natural experiment for studying the degree of persistence of Communist-era family patterns, the effects of economic change, and fertility postponement. After reunification, period fertility rates plummeted in the former East Germany to record low levels. Since the mid-1990s, however, period fertility rates have been rising in East Germany, in contrast to the ne…
How slowing senescence translates into longer life expectancy
Mortality decline has historically been largely a result of reductions in the level of mortality at all ages. A number of leading researchers on ageing, however, suggest that the next revolution of longevity increase will be the result of slowing down the rate of ageing. In this paper, we show mathematically how varying the pace of senescence influences life expectancy. We provide a formula that holds for any baseline hazard function. Our result …
Historical Addendum to 'Life lived equals life left in stationary populations
This note provides some earlier history of the relationship given in FormalRelationships1, "Life left equals life lived in stationary populations," (Goldstein2009) and shows that while the expectation of life at the mean age of the population is close
Fertility Forecasting in the German-speaking World
In this article, the official fertility projections of the statistical agencies in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland are examined. We refer to the literature on this topic and the history of fertility projections in all three countries. We conclude that the basis of fertility projections is the persistence of the present. We then investigate the most recent projections in more detail - with special regard for their consistency of timing and level…
Probabilistic Forecasting Using Stochastic Diffusion Models, With Applications to Cohort Processes of Marriage and Fertility
In this article, we show how stochastic diffusion models can be used to forecast demographic cohort processes using the Hernes, Gompertz, and logistic models. Such models have been used deterministically in the past, but both behavioral theory and forecast utility are improved by introducing randomness and uncertainty into the standard differential equations governing population processes. Our approach is to add time-series stochasticity to linea…
Fertility Reactions to the "Great Recession" in Europe
This paper provides recent cross-national evidence of the impact of the great recession on fertility in Europe in the context of the recent decade
New Cohort Fertility Forecasts for the Developed World
With period fertility having risen in many low-fertility countries, an important emerging question is whether cohort fertility trends are also reversing. We produce new estimates of cohort fertility for 37 developed countries using a new, simple method that avoids the underestimation typical of previous approaches. Consistent with the idea that timing changes were largely responsible for the last decades' low period fertility, we find that family…
Sociology (34 obras) · Demography (33 obras) · Population (31 obras) · Economics (23 obras) · Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management (21 obras) · Demographic economics (19 obras) · Geography (16 obras) · Demography (15 obras) · Fertility (15 obras) · Global Health Care Issues (15 obras)