Sergei Scherbov
Datos Biográficos
| ID | 271106 |
|---|---|
| NOMBRE | Sergei Scherbov |
| NOMBRES | Sergei |
| APELLIDO | Scherbov |
| FIRMA | SCHERBOV S |
| AFILIACIONES | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-0881-1073 |
| VERIFICADO | Sí |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 34 |
| TOTAL DE CITAS | 149 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 34 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 0 |
| PRIMER AÑO DE PUBLICACIÓN | 1994 |
| AÑO MÁS RECIENTE DE PUBLICACIÓN | 2020 |
| ÍNDICE H | 8 |
Exploring the ‘True Value’ of Replacement Rate Fertility
Prospective Longevity
Ageing in Russia
Prospective Longevity
A Simple Measure of Human Development
FOR MUCH OF the twentieth century, statistical measurements of human development emphasized economic magnitudes.In 1990, the United Nations offered an alternative and more comprehensive way of measuring human development, the Human Development Index (HDI) (UNDP 1990).The motivation behind the production of the HDI was that economic magnitudes alone provided too narrow a basis for assessing human development.The HDI represents a compromise between…
New Approaches to the Conceptualization and Measurement of Age and Aging
Supplementing chronological age with ages that take into account the changing characteristics of people allows us to analyze aging more comprehensively and more accurately
Combined Measures of Upper and Lower Body Strength and Subgroup Differences in Subsequent Survival Among the Older Population of England
This result demonstrates the benefit of combining characteristics, using alpha-ages to convert incommensurate observations into a common metric
Differences by union status in health and mortality at older ages
Married people live longer than the unmarried; micro-level research indicates that they enjoy better health. Macro-level research does not combine mortality, marital status, and health
Does selection of mortality model make a difference in projecting population ageing
In low mortality countries, assessing future ageing depends to a large extent on scenarios of future mortality reduction at old age. Often in population projections mortality reduction is implemented via life expectancy increases that do not specify mortal
A New Perspective on Patterns of Aging in Europe by Education and Gender
Remeasuring Ageing in Southeast Asia
It is a commonly held view that Southeast Asian societies are ageing rapidly. This has led to a high evel of policy concern about the future capacity of states to cope with increased levels of 'old-age dependency' which, at first glance, often appear almost unmanageable. We suggest that the rates employed to demonstrate the present/future scale of 'old-age dependency' are msleading and based upon a Eurocentric notion from a bygone era. Arguing th…
Are We Overly Dependent on Conventional Dependency Ratios
The dependency ratio and its components have had a long and productive life. Here we show that they are no longer the most accurate way of measuring important aspects of population aging. We present ratios related to employment, standardized workers and consumers, health care costs, pension costs, and who is old. These ratios are based either on new data or on new approaches to the study of population aging and are all available on the internet. …
Quantifying policy tradeoffs to support aging populations
Coping with aging populations is a challenge for most developed countries. Supporting non-working adults can create an unsustainable burden on those working. One way of dealing with this is to raise the normal pension age, but this has proven unpopular. A
New Measures of Population Reproduction for an Era of High Migration
Migration has become a key factor in the growth and replacement of populations. But demographic tools for its analysis remain simple. This paper is our response to those problems. We propose a set of simple, single‐number indicators, which summarise the aggregate effect of the major contributing factors to the reproduction of populations. Our estimates imply that the persistence of rates observed since 2004 would lead to robust population growth …
The Characteristics Approach to the Measurement of Population Aging
Conventional measures of population aging, such as proportions over age 65, can present a misleading picture of the aging process by not taking account of changes in people's characteristics beyond their chronological age-for example, changes in remaining life expectancy, health and morbidity, disability rates, and cognitive functioning. The "characteristics approach" set out in this article encompasses multiple features of population aging, yiel…
Very long range global population scenarios to 2300 and the implications of sustained low fertility
Depending on whether the global level of fertility is assumed to converge to the current European TFR (~1.5) or that of Southeast Asia or Central America (~2.5), global population will either decline to 2.3-2.9 billion by 2200 or increase to 33-37 billion
The Uncertain Timing of Reaching 8 Billion, Peak World Population, and Other Demographic Milestones
We present new probabilistic forecasts of the timing of the world's population reaching 8 billion, the world's peak population, and the date at which one-third or more of the world's population would be 60+ years old. The timing of these milestones, as well as the timing of the Day of 7 Billion, is uncertain. We compute that the 60 percent prediction interval for the Day of 8 Billion is between 2024 and 2033. Our figures show that there is around…
Significance of life table estimates for small populations
We study bias, standard errors, and distributions of characteristics of life tables for small populations. Theoretical considerations and simulations show that statistical efficiency of different methods is, above all, affected by the population size
Remeasuring Aging
Adjusting aging forecasts to incorporate increases in longevity and health can provide better tools for policy-makers.
The coming acceleration of global population ageing
Global and Regional Population Ageing
A Near Electoral Majority of Pensioners
In the first half of this century in many of today's developed countries, the proportion of voting age populations 65 years old or older will roughly double. As voting age populations age, the proportion of net contributors to national budgets (mainly through taxes) will fall and the proportion of net beneficiaries (mainly through public pension and health care benefits) will rise. By mid-century in many wealthy countries, a near majority of elec…
A new perspective on population aging
In Sanderson and Scherbov (2005) we introduced a new forward-looking definition of age and argued that its use, along with the traditional backward-looking concept of age, provides a more informative basis upon which to discuss population aging. Age is
Marriage in Russia
The micro census 1994 of the Russian Federation collected detailed marital histories for al respondents. This information made it possible to construct multistate marital tables for both male and female cohorts born since 1910 for the first time. Conti
Long‐Term Population Decline in Europe
It has recently been suggested that an end to further increases in the mean age of child‐bearing in Europe (ending the negative tempo effect on fertility) would have a substantial effect on population dynamics in terms of slowing population aging and decline and weakening the negative momentum affecting population size over the coming decades. On the other hand, stable population theory suggests that under sub‐replacement fertility conditions, a …
A Simple Measure of Human Development
FOR MUCH OF the twentieth century, statistical measurements of human development emphasized economic magnitudes.In 1990, the United Nations offered an alternative and more comprehensive way of measuring human development, the Human Development Index (HDI) (UNDP 1990).The motivation behind the production of the HDI was that economic magnitudes alone provided too narrow a basis for assessing human development.The HDI represents a compromise between…
Are We Overly Dependent on Conventional Dependency Ratios
The dependency ratio and its components have had a long and productive life. Here we show that they are no longer the most accurate way of measuring important aspects of population aging. We present ratios related to employment, standardized workers and consumers, health care costs, pension costs, and who is old. These ratios are based either on new data or on new approaches to the study of population aging and are all available on the internet. …
A new perspective on population aging
In Sanderson and Scherbov (2005) we introduced a new forward-looking definition of age and argued that its use, along with the traditional backward-looking concept of age, provides a more informative basis upon which to discuss population aging. Age is
Marriage and Fertility in Russia of Women Born between 1900 and 1960
Long‐Term Population Decline in Europe
It has recently been suggested that an end to further increases in the mean age of child‐bearing in Europe (ending the negative tempo effect on fertility) would have a substantial effect on population dynamics in terms of slowing population aging and decline and weakening the negative momentum affecting population size over the coming decades. On the other hand, stable population theory suggests that under sub‐replacement fertility conditions, a …
The Characteristics Approach to the Measurement of Population Aging
Conventional measures of population aging, such as proportions over age 65, can present a misleading picture of the aging process by not taking account of changes in people's characteristics beyond their chronological age-for example, changes in remaining life expectancy, health and morbidity, disability rates, and cognitive functioning. The "characteristics approach" set out in this article encompasses multiple features of population aging, yiel…
Expert-Based Probabilistic Population Projections
Most users of population projections are interested in one likely path of future population trends based on the best existing knowledge. Whether it is called the medium variant, central scenario, or median of an uncertainty distribution, this projected path will be taken as a forecast on which further considerations can be based. For many users such a best guess will suffice. It can be taken as an exogenous input into their own models for school …
New Measures of Population Reproduction for an Era of High Migration
Migration has become a key factor in the growth and replacement of populations. But demographic tools for its analysis remain simple. This paper is our response to those problems. We propose a set of simple, single‐number indicators, which summarise the aggregate effect of the major contributing factors to the reproduction of populations. Our estimates imply that the persistence of rates observed since 2004 would lead to robust population growth …
A Near Electoral Majority of Pensioners
In the first half of this century in many of today's developed countries, the proportion of voting age populations 65 years old or older will roughly double. As voting age populations age, the proportion of net contributors to national budgets (mainly through taxes) will fall and the proportion of net beneficiaries (mainly through public pension and health care benefits) will rise. By mid-century in many wealthy countries, a near majority of elec…
Significance of life table estimates for small populations
We study bias, standard errors, and distributions of characteristics of life tables for small populations. Theoretical considerations and simulations show that statistical efficiency of different methods is, above all, affected by the population size
Exploring the ‘True Value’ of Replacement Rate Fertility
New Approaches to the Conceptualization and Measurement of Age and Aging
Supplementing chronological age with ages that take into account the changing characteristics of people allows us to analyze aging more comprehensively and more accurately
Very long range global population scenarios to 2300 and the implications of sustained low fertility
Depending on whether the global level of fertility is assumed to converge to the current European TFR (~1.5) or that of Southeast Asia or Central America (~2.5), global population will either decline to 2.3-2.9 billion by 2200 or increase to 33-37 billion
Marriage in Russia
The micro census 1994 of the Russian Federation collected detailed marital histories for al respondents. This information made it possible to construct multistate marital tables for both male and female cohorts born since 1910 for the first time. Conti
Remeasuring Ageing in Southeast Asia
It is a commonly held view that Southeast Asian societies are ageing rapidly. This has led to a high evel of policy concern about the future capacity of states to cope with increased levels of 'old-age dependency' which, at first glance, often appear almost unmanageable. We suggest that the rates employed to demonstrate the present/future scale of 'old-age dependency' are msleading and based upon a Eurocentric notion from a bygone era. Arguing th…
The Long-Term Effect of the Timing of Fertility Decline on Population Size
Existing long-range population projections imply that the timing of the fertility transition has a relatively unimportant effect on long-term population size when compared with the impact of the level at which fertility is assumed eventually to stabilize. However, this note shows that the effect of the timing of fertility decline is a function of the eventual fertility rate: the lower the eventual fertility rate, the greater the effect of the tim…
Population of Russia
An Expert-Based Framework for Probabilistic National Population Projections
Marital status behaviour of women in the former Soviet Republics
Differences by union status in health and mortality at older ages
Married people live longer than the unmarried; micro-level research indicates that they enjoy better health. Macro-level research does not combine mortality, marital status, and health
Quantifying policy tradeoffs to support aging populations
Coping with aging populations is a challenge for most developed countries. Supporting non-working adults can create an unsustainable burden on those working. One way of dealing with this is to raise the normal pension age, but this has proven unpopular. A
The Uncertain Timing of Reaching 8 Billion, Peak World Population, and Other Demographic Milestones
We present new probabilistic forecasts of the timing of the world's population reaching 8 billion, the world's peak population, and the date at which one-third or more of the world's population would be 60+ years old. The timing of these milestones, as well as the timing of the Day of 7 Billion, is uncertain. We compute that the 60 percent prediction interval for the Day of 8 Billion is between 2024 and 2033. Our figures show that there is around…
Period Fertility in Russia since 1930
In this paper we present a detailed demographic analysis of the change of period fertility that occurred since 1930, based on individual retrospective data, collected in the most recent (five percent) microcensus of the Russian Federation from 1994. We
Combined Measures of Upper and Lower Body Strength and Subgroup Differences in Subsequent Survival Among the Older Population of England
This result demonstrates the benefit of combining characteristics, using alpha-ages to convert incommensurate observations into a common metric
Does selection of mortality model make a difference in projecting population ageing
In low mortality countries, assessing future ageing depends to a large extent on scenarios of future mortality reduction at old age. Often in population projections mortality reduction is implemented via life expectancy increases that do not specify mortal
Demographic Trends and Patterns in the Soviet Union Before 1991
Marital status behaviour of women in the former Soviet Republics
Population of Russia
An Expert-Based Framework for Probabilistic National Population Projections
Expert-Based Probabilistic Population Projections
Most users of population projections are interested in one likely path of future population trends based on the best existing knowledge. Whether it is called the medium variant, central scenario, or median of an uncertainty distribution, this projected path will be taken as a forecast on which further considerations can be based. For many users such a best guess will suffice. It can be taken as an exogenous input into their own models for school …
The Long-Term Effect of the Timing of Fertility Decline on Population Size
Existing long-range population projections imply that the timing of the fertility transition has a relatively unimportant effect on long-term population size when compared with the impact of the level at which fertility is assumed eventually to stabilize. However, this note shows that the effect of the timing of fertility decline is a function of the eventual fertility rate: the lower the eventual fertility rate, the greater the effect of the tim…
The end of world population growth
Marriage and Fertility in Russia of Women Born between 1900 and 1960
Period Fertility in Russia since 1930
In this paper we present a detailed demographic analysis of the change of period fertility that occurred since 1930, based on individual retrospective data, collected in the most recent (five percent) microcensus of the Russian Federation from 1994. We
Long‐Term Population Decline in Europe
It has recently been suggested that an end to further increases in the mean age of child‐bearing in Europe (ending the negative tempo effect on fertility) would have a substantial effect on population dynamics in terms of slowing population aging and decline and weakening the negative momentum affecting population size over the coming decades. On the other hand, stable population theory suggests that under sub‐replacement fertility conditions, a …
Marriage in Russia
The micro census 1994 of the Russian Federation collected detailed marital histories for al respondents. This information made it possible to construct multistate marital tables for both male and female cohorts born since 1910 for the first time. Conti
A Near Electoral Majority of Pensioners
In the first half of this century in many of today's developed countries, the proportion of voting age populations 65 years old or older will roughly double. As voting age populations age, the proportion of net contributors to national budgets (mainly through taxes) will fall and the proportion of net beneficiaries (mainly through public pension and health care benefits) will rise. By mid-century in many wealthy countries, a near majority of elec…
A new perspective on population aging
In Sanderson and Scherbov (2005) we introduced a new forward-looking definition of age and argued that its use, along with the traditional backward-looking concept of age, provides a more informative basis upon which to discuss population aging. Age is
The coming acceleration of global population ageing
Global and Regional Population Ageing
Remeasuring Aging
Adjusting aging forecasts to incorporate increases in longevity and health can provide better tools for policy-makers.
The Uncertain Timing of Reaching 8 Billion, Peak World Population, and Other Demographic Milestones
We present new probabilistic forecasts of the timing of the world's population reaching 8 billion, the world's peak population, and the date at which one-third or more of the world's population would be 60+ years old. The timing of these milestones, as well as the timing of the Day of 7 Billion, is uncertain. We compute that the 60 percent prediction interval for the Day of 8 Billion is between 2024 and 2033. Our figures show that there is around…
Significance of life table estimates for small populations
We study bias, standard errors, and distributions of characteristics of life tables for small populations. Theoretical considerations and simulations show that statistical efficiency of different methods is, above all, affected by the population size
New Measures of Population Reproduction for an Era of High Migration
Migration has become a key factor in the growth and replacement of populations. But demographic tools for its analysis remain simple. This paper is our response to those problems. We propose a set of simple, single‐number indicators, which summarise the aggregate effect of the major contributing factors to the reproduction of populations. Our estimates imply that the persistence of rates observed since 2004 would lead to robust population growth …
The Characteristics Approach to the Measurement of Population Aging
Conventional measures of population aging, such as proportions over age 65, can present a misleading picture of the aging process by not taking account of changes in people's characteristics beyond their chronological age-for example, changes in remaining life expectancy, health and morbidity, disability rates, and cognitive functioning. The "characteristics approach" set out in this article encompasses multiple features of population aging, yiel…
Very long range global population scenarios to 2300 and the implications of sustained low fertility
Depending on whether the global level of fertility is assumed to converge to the current European TFR (~1.5) or that of Southeast Asia or Central America (~2.5), global population will either decline to 2.3-2.9 billion by 2200 or increase to 33-37 billion
Quantifying policy tradeoffs to support aging populations
Coping with aging populations is a challenge for most developed countries. Supporting non-working adults can create an unsustainable burden on those working. One way of dealing with this is to raise the normal pension age, but this has proven unpopular. A
A New Perspective on Patterns of Aging in Europe by Education and Gender
Remeasuring Ageing in Southeast Asia
It is a commonly held view that Southeast Asian societies are ageing rapidly. This has led to a high evel of policy concern about the future capacity of states to cope with increased levels of 'old-age dependency' which, at first glance, often appear almost unmanageable. We suggest that the rates employed to demonstrate the present/future scale of 'old-age dependency' are msleading and based upon a Eurocentric notion from a bygone era. Arguing th…
Are We Overly Dependent on Conventional Dependency Ratios
The dependency ratio and its components have had a long and productive life. Here we show that they are no longer the most accurate way of measuring important aspects of population aging. We present ratios related to employment, standardized workers and consumers, health care costs, pension costs, and who is old. These ratios are based either on new data or on new approaches to the study of population aging and are all available on the internet. …
Demography (30 obras) · Population (28 obras) · Sociology (25 obras) · Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management (24 obras) · Economics (23 obras) · Global Health Care Issues (17 obras) · Geography (16 obras) · Demographic economics (13 obras) · Demography (12 obras) · Political science (12 obras)